Septemvri

Septemvri

VS Scheduled Sunday 11 Oct 202613:00

Bulgaria 26/27 First League · Matchday 11

Dunav

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Septemvri0–3Botev Plovdiv
2026-09-14	26/27	Ludogorets2–1Septemvri
2026-09-04	26/27	Septemvri2–3Botev Vratsa
2026-08-28	26/27	Slavia Sofia1–1Septemvri
2026-08-23	26/27	Septemvri1–0CSKA 1948
2026-08-17	26/27	Spartak Varna0–1Septemvri
2026-08-09	26/27	Septemvri0–3CSKA Sofia
2026-08-01	26/27	Levski3–0Septemvri

Dunav

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Dunav2–2Botev Vratsa
2026-09-12	26/27	CSKA 19482–1Dunav
2026-09-07	26/27	Dunav0–1Slavia Sofia
2026-08-31	26/27	Dunav2–2Lokomotiv Sf
2026-08-21	26/27	Cherno More3–1Dunav
2026-08-16	26/27	Lok Plovdiv1–2Dunav
2026-08-08	26/27	Dunav0–2Arda
2026-08-02	26/27	CSKA Sofia2–1Dunav

Septemvri Dunav

Wins

25%

12%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

75%

Both teams scored

38%

75%

Clean sheets

25%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Septemvri

Home · First League

Home			Away		1st goal
10	Septemvri		Levski	1
10	Septemvri	0–3	CSKA Sofia	2	45′ Away
10	Septemvri		Ludogorets	3
10	Septemvri	1–0	CSKA 1948	4	59′ Home
10	Septemvri	1–1	Arda	5	17′ Away
10	Septemvri	0–3	Botev Plovdiv	6	26′ Away
10	Septemvri		Slavia Sofia	7
10	Septemvri		Spartak Varna	8
10	Septemvri	2–3	Botev Vratsa	9	41′ Away
10 · Septemvri
10	Septemvri		Lokomotiv Sf	11
10	Septemvri		Lok Plovdiv	12
10	Septemvri		Cherno More	13
10	Septemvri		Dunav	14

Dunav

Away · First League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Levski	2–1	Dunav	14	22′ Home
2	CSKA Sofia	2–1	Dunav	14	9′ Away
3	Ludogorets		Dunav	14
4	CSKA 1948	2–1	Dunav	14	4′ Home
5	Arda		Dunav	14
6	Botev Plovdiv		Dunav	14
7	Slavia Sofia		Dunav	14
8	Spartak Varna		Dunav	14
9	Botev Vratsa		Dunav	14
10	Septemvri		Dunav	14
11	Lokomotiv Sf		Dunav	14
12	Lok Plovdiv	1–2	Dunav	14	4′ Home
13	Cherno More	3–1	Dunav	14	55′ Home
14 · Dunav

Septemvri Home Dunav Away

Wins

20%

Over 1.5

80%

100%

Over 2.5

60%

100%

Over 3.5

20%

Both teams scored

40%

100%

Clean sheets

20%

0%

Scores first

20%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

First League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Septemvri

10 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away5 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	0.80	0.80	0.80
Draws	20.0%	20.0%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	0.80	0.80	0.80
Goals conceded / match	2.00	1.60	1.80
Total goals / match	2.80	2.40	2.60
Failed to score	40.0%	20.0%	30.0%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	40.0%	40.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 4	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	2
31–45	0	2
46–60	3	1
61–75	1	2
76–90	0	3

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Dunav

10 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away5 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	0.40	0.60	0.50
Draws	40.0%	0.0%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	0.80	1.20	1.00
Goals conceded / match	1.80	2.00	1.90
Total goals / match	2.60	3.20	2.90
Failed to score	60.0%	0.0%	30.0%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	0.0%	30.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 4	25%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	2
16–30	0	2
31–45	0	0
46–60	1	1
61–75	2	1
76–90	2	4

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Septemvri	Draw	Dunav	How it works
Strength (Elo)	46.4%	23.3%	30.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	25.6%	25.8%	48.0%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.03–1.51 Model expected goals

46.2% Probability of over 2.5 goals

49.8% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 12.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-112.2%

0-111.9%

1-29.3%

0-29.0%

1-08.1%

0-07.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Septemvri	Dunav	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1447	1433	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-51	-59	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1511	1492	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Septemvri	0.10	0.70	0.70	1.10
Dunav	0.40	0.60	0.70	1.20

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Septemvri	0%	20%	20%	50%	10%
Dunav	0%	10%	20%	40%	30%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

0.80 Septemvri at home, 5 matches

0.60 Dunav away, 5 matches

22d Days of rest for Septemvri

22d Days of rest for Dunav

— Manager of Septemvri

— Manager of Dunav

0 Matches for Septemvri in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Dunav in the last 14 days

17 Points for Septemvri behind the leaders, and 1 above the relegation zone

20 Points for Dunav behind the leaders, and -2 above the relegation zone

2.67 League goals per match

24.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Septemvri, the right bar represents Dunav.

On the ball

20 matches

4.25

corners

3.89

14.3

fouls

10.3

2.8

yellow cards

2.33

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Septemvri	LLLDWWLLLD	0.80	0.80–1.80	3L
Dunav	DLLDLWLLLL	0.50	1.00–1.90	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Septemvri	0	4	6	0	0
Dunav	2	3	5	1	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Septemvri

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Dunav

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.