Dunav

Dunav

VS Scheduled Saturday 24 Oct 202612:00

Bulgaria 26/27 First League · Matchday 12

Spartak Varna

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Dunav2–2Botev Vratsa
2026-09-12	26/27	CSKA 19482–1Dunav
2026-09-07	26/27	Dunav0–1Slavia Sofia
2026-08-31	26/27	Dunav2–2Lokomotiv Sf
2026-08-21	26/27	Cherno More3–1Dunav
2026-08-16	26/27	Lok Plovdiv1–2Dunav
2026-08-08	26/27	Dunav0–2Arda
2026-08-02	26/27	CSKA Sofia2–1Dunav

Spartak Varna

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Spartak Varna0–1Lokomotiv Sf
2026-09-13	26/27	Slavia Sofia0–0Spartak Varna
2026-09-05	26/27	Spartak Varna1–1CSKA Sofia
2026-08-30	26/27	Spartak Varna1–1Ludogorets
2026-08-22	26/27	Levski6–0Spartak Varna
2026-08-17	26/27	Spartak Varna0–1Septemvri
2026-08-10	26/27	Botev Plovdiv3–2Spartak Varna
2026-08-03	26/27	Spartak Varna1–0Lok Plovdiv

Dunav Spartak Varna

Wins

12%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

25%

Both teams scored

75%

38%

Clean sheets

0%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Dunav

Home · First League

Home			Away		1st goal
14	Dunav		Levski	1
14	Dunav		CSKA Sofia	2
14	Dunav	0–2	Ludogorets	3	14′ Away
14	Dunav		CSKA 1948	4
14	Dunav	0–2	Arda	5	16′ Away
14	Dunav		Botev Plovdiv	6
14	Dunav	0–1	Slavia Sofia	7	66′ Away
14	Dunav		Spartak Varna	8
14	Dunav	2–2	Botev Vratsa	9	9′ Home
14	Dunav		Septemvri	10
14	Dunav	2–2	Lokomotiv Sf	11	39′ Home
14	Dunav		Lok Plovdiv	12
14	Dunav		Cherno More	13
14 · Dunav

Spartak Varna

Away · First League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Levski	6–0	Spartak Varna	8	8′ Home
2	CSKA Sofia		Spartak Varna	8
3	Ludogorets		Spartak Varna	8
4	CSKA 1948		Spartak Varna	8
5	Arda		Spartak Varna	8
6	Botev Plovdiv	3–2	Spartak Varna	8	—
7	Slavia Sofia	0–0	Spartak Varna	8	–
8 · Spartak Varna
9	Botev Vratsa		Spartak Varna	8
10	Septemvri		Spartak Varna	8
11	Lokomotiv Sf		Spartak Varna	8
12	Lok Plovdiv		Spartak Varna	8
13	Cherno More	0–3	Spartak Varna	8	33′ Away
14	Dunav		Spartak Varna	8

Dunav Home Spartak Varna Away

Wins

0%

25%

Over 1.5

80%

75%

Over 2.5

40%

75%

Over 3.5

40%

50%

Both teams scored

40%

25%

Clean sheets

0%

50%

Scores first

40%

25%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

First League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Dunav

10 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away5 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	0.40	0.60	0.50
Draws	40.0%	0.0%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	0.80	1.20	1.00
Goals conceded / match	1.80	2.00	1.90
Total goals / match	2.60	3.20	2.90
Failed to score	60.0%	0.0%	30.0%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	0.0%	30.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 2	100%
Scores first → wins	0 of 2	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	0	1
31–45	2	1
46–60	0	3
61–75	1	2
76–90	0	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Spartak Varna

10 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away4 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	1.00	1.00	1.00
Draws	50.0%	25.0%	40.0%
Goals scored / match	0.83	1.25	1.00
Goals conceded / match	1.00	2.25	1.50
Total goals / match	1.83	3.50	2.50
Failed to score	33.3%	50.0%	40.0%
Under 2.5 goals	83.3%	25.0%	60.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Dunav	Draw	Spartak Varna	How it works
Strength (Elo)	39.2%	24.6%	36.2%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	24.0%	25.0%	50.4%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.01–1.60 Model expected goals

47.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

50.4% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 11.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-111.9%

0-111.7%

1-29.5%

0-29.4%

1-07.4%

0-07.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Dunav	Spartak Varna	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1433	1479	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-59	-20	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1492	1506	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Dunav	0.40	0.60	0.70	1.20
Spartak Varna	0.50	0.50	0.60	0.90

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Dunav	0%	10%	20%	40%	30%
Spartak Varna	10%	30%	20%	10%	30%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

0.40 Dunav at home, 5 matches

1.00 Spartak Varna away, 4 matches

35d Days of rest for Dunav

34d Days of rest for Spartak Varna

— Manager of Dunav

— Manager of Spartak Varna

0 Matches for Dunav in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Spartak Varna in the last 14 days

20 Points for Dunav behind the leaders, and -2 above the relegation zone

15 Points for Spartak Varna behind the leaders, and 3 above the relegation zone

2.67 League goals per match

24.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Dunav, the right bar represents Spartak Varna.

On the ball

20 matches

3.89

corners

2.56

10.3

fouls

10.5

2.33

yellow cards

2.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Dunav	DLLDLWLLLL	0.50	1.00–1.90	1D
Spartak Varna	LDDDLLLWWD	1.00	1.00–1.50	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Dunav	2	3	5	1	2
Spartak Varna	3	5	2	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Dunav

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Spartak Varna

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.