Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna

VS Scheduled Sunday 8 Nov 202612:00

Bulgaria 26/27 First League · Matchday 13

Arda

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Spartak Varna0–1Lokomotiv Sf
2026-09-13	26/27	Slavia Sofia0–0Spartak Varna
2026-09-05	26/27	Spartak Varna1–1CSKA Sofia
2026-08-30	26/27	Spartak Varna1–1Ludogorets
2026-08-22	26/27	Levski6–0Spartak Varna
2026-08-17	26/27	Spartak Varna0–1Septemvri
2026-08-10	26/27	Botev Plovdiv3–2Spartak Varna
2026-08-03	26/27	Spartak Varna1–0Lok Plovdiv

Arda

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Arda1–1Cherno More
2026-09-12	26/27	CSKA Sofia4–1Arda
2026-09-04	26/27	Arda2–3Botev Plovdiv
2026-08-31	26/27	Arda2–0Botev Vratsa
2026-08-24	26/27	Lok Plovdiv0–1Arda
2026-08-17	26/27	Arda3–1Lokomotiv Sf
2026-08-08	26/27	Dunav0–2Arda
2026-07-31	26/27	CSKA 19482–1Arda

Spartak Varna Arda

Wins

12%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

25%

50%

Both teams scored

38%

62%

Clean sheets

25%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Spartak Varna

Home · First League

Home			Away		1st goal
8	Spartak Varna		Levski	1
8	Spartak Varna	1–1	CSKA Sofia	2	18′ Away
8	Spartak Varna	1–1	Ludogorets	3	64′ Home
8	Spartak Varna	2–2	CSKA 1948	4	13′ Home
8	Spartak Varna		Arda	5
8	Spartak Varna		Botev Plovdiv	6
8	Spartak Varna		Slavia Sofia	7
8 · Spartak Varna
8	Spartak Varna		Botev Vratsa	9
8	Spartak Varna	0–1	Septemvri	10	61′ Away
8	Spartak Varna	0–1	Lokomotiv Sf	11	—
8	Spartak Varna	1–0	Lok Plovdiv	12	8′ Home
8	Spartak Varna		Cherno More	13
8	Spartak Varna		Dunav	14

Arda

Away · First League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Levski		Arda	5
2	CSKA Sofia	4–1	Arda	5	1′ Away
3	Ludogorets		Arda	5
4	CSKA 1948	2–1	Arda	5	6′ Home
5 · Arda
6	Botev Plovdiv		Arda	5
7	Slavia Sofia		Arda	5
8	Spartak Varna		Arda	5
9	Botev Vratsa		Arda	5
10	Septemvri	1–1	Arda	5	17′ Away
11	Lokomotiv Sf		Arda	5
12	Lok Plovdiv	0–1	Arda	5	65′ Away
13	Cherno More		Arda	5
14	Dunav	0–2	Arda	5	16′ Away

Spartak Varna Home Arda Away

Wins

17%

40%

Over 1.5

50%

80%

Over 2.5

17%

40%

Over 3.5

17%

20%

Both teams scored

50%

60%

Clean sheets

17%

40%

Scores first

50%

80%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

First League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Spartak Varna

10 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away4 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	1.00	1.00	1.00
Draws	50.0%	25.0%	40.0%
Goals scored / match	0.83	1.25	1.00
Goals conceded / match	1.00	2.25	1.50
Total goals / match	1.83	3.50	2.50
Failed to score	33.3%	50.0%	40.0%
Under 2.5 goals	83.3%	25.0%	60.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 3	67%
Scores first → wins	1 of 3	33%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Arda

10 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away5 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	2.00	1.40	1.70
Draws	20.0%	20.0%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	1.80	1.20	1.50
Goals conceded / match	1.00	1.40	1.20
Total goals / match	2.80	2.60	2.70
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	60.0%	60.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 4	50%
Scores first → wins	2 of 4	50%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	3	0
31–45	0	1
46–60	1	4
61–75	1	1
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Spartak Varna	Draw	Arda	How it works
Strength (Elo)	40.1%	24.5%	35.4%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	15.4%	21.7%	61.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.81–1.89 Model expected goals

49.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

46.5% Both teams to score

0-1 Most likely score, at 12.7%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-112.7%

0-212.0%

1-110.3%

1-29.7%

0-37.6%

0-06.7%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Spartak Varna	Arda	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1479	1517	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-20	15	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1506	1485	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Spartak Varna	0.50	0.50	0.60	0.90
Arda	0.60	0.90	0.40	0.80

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Spartak Varna	10%	30%	20%	10%	30%
Arda	0%	20%	40%	10%	30%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.00 Spartak Varna at home, 6 matches

1.40 Arda away, 5 matches

49d Days of rest for Spartak Varna

50d Days of rest for Arda

— Manager of Spartak Varna

— Manager of Arda

0 Matches for Spartak Varna in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Arda in the last 14 days

15 Points for Spartak Varna behind the leaders, and 3 above the relegation zone

8 Points for Arda behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone

2.67 League goals per match

24.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Spartak Varna, the right bar represents Arda.

On the ball

20 matches

2.56

corners

3.7

10.5

fouls

11.9

2.5

yellow cards

3.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Spartak Varna	LDDDLLLWWD	1.00	1.00–1.50	1L
Arda	DLLWWWWLWD	1.70	1.50–1.20	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Spartak Varna	3	5	2	0	1
Arda	3	6	1	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Spartak Varna

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Arda

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.