Estrela Vermelha

Estrela Vermelha

VS Scheduled Saturday 17 Oct 202601:00

Serbia 26/27 Super Liga · Matchday 12

Mladost Lučani

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Estrela Vermelha3–0Radnički Niš
2026-09-17	26/27	Železničar P1–2Estrela Vermelha
2026-09-13	26/27	FK IMT0–1Estrela Vermelha
2026-09-10	26/27	Radnik0–0Estrela Vermelha
2026-09-06	26/27	Estrela Vermelha2–1Partizan
2026-08-30	26/27	Zemun0–2Estrela Vermelha
2026-08-23	26/27	Estrela Vermelha4–0Čukarički
2026-08-08	26/27	Estrela Vermelha2–0Novi Pazar

Mladost Lučani

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Mačva1–2Mladost Lučani
2026-09-12	26/27	Radnicki 19235–0Mladost Lučani
2026-09-05	26/27	Mladost Lučani1–0Radnički Niš
2026-08-30	26/27	FK IMT2–0Mladost Lučani
2026-08-23	26/27	Mladost Lučani3–1Partizan
2026-08-16	26/27	Zemun0–1Mladost Lučani
2026-08-09	26/27	Mladost Lučani2–2Čukarički
2026-08-03	26/27	Železničar P0–0Mladost Lučani

Estrela Vermelha Mladost Lučani

Wins

88%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

Both teams scored

25%

38%

Clean sheets

75%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Estrela Vermelha

Home · Super Liga

Home			Away		1st goal
1 · Estrela Vermelha
1	Estrela Vermelha	3–1	Vojvodina	2	15′ Home
1	Estrela Vermelha		Radnicki 1923	3
1	Estrela Vermelha		Mladost Lučani	4
1	Estrela Vermelha		FK IMT	5
1	Estrela Vermelha		Železničar P	6
1	Estrela Vermelha		Radnik	7
1	Estrela Vermelha	2–0	Novi Pazar	8	45+3′ Home
1	Estrela Vermelha	4–0	Čukarički	9	35′ Home
1	Estrela Vermelha		OFK Belgrado	10
1	Estrela Vermelha	2–1	Partizan	11	1′ Away
1	Estrela Vermelha	3–0	Radnički Niš	12	29′ Home
1	Estrela Vermelha	5–0	Mačva	13	—
1	Estrela Vermelha		Zemun	14

Mladost Lučani

Away · Super Liga

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Estrela Vermelha		Mladost Lučani	4
2	Vojvodina		Mladost Lučani	4
3	Radnicki 1923	5–0	Mladost Lučani	4	6′ Home
4 · Mladost Lučani
5	FK IMT	2–0	Mladost Lučani	4	37′ Home
6	Železničar P	0–0	Mladost Lučani	4	–
7	Radnik	1–1	Mladost Lučani	4	54′ Away
8	Novi Pazar		Mladost Lučani	4
9	Čukarički		Mladost Lučani	4
10	OFK Belgrado		Mladost Lučani	4
11	Partizan		Mladost Lučani	4
12	Radnički Niš		Mladost Lučani	4
13	Mačva	1–2	Mladost Lučani	4	29′ Home
14	Zemun	0–1	Mladost Lučani	4	9′ Away

Estrela Vermelha Home Mladost Lučani Away

Wins

100%

33%

Over 1.5

100%

67%

Over 2.5

83%

33%

Over 3.5

50%

17%

Both teams scored

33%

Clean sheets

67%

33%

Scores first

83%

33%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Super Liga · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Estrela Vermelha

10 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away4 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	3.00	2.50	2.80
Draws	0.0%	25.0%	10.0%
Goals scored / match	3.17	1.25	2.40
Goals conceded / match	0.33	0.25	0.30
Total goals / match	3.50	1.50	2.70
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	10.0%
Under 2.5 goals	16.7%	75.0%	40.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	5 of 5	100%
Scores first → wins	5 of 5	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Mladost Lučani

10 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away6 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	2.00	1.33	1.60
Draws	50.0%	33.3%	40.0%
Goals scored / match	1.50	0.67	1.00
Goals conceded / match	0.75	1.50	1.20
Total goals / match	2.25	2.17	2.20
Failed to score	25.0%	50.0%	40.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	66.7%	60.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	1 of 2	50%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 3	33%

Scoring order known: 6/6 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	2
16–30	0	1
31–45	0	2
46–60	1	1
61–75	1	1
76–90	1	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Estrela Vermelha	Draw	Mladost Lučani	How it works
Strength (Elo)	55.7%	21.0%	23.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	69.0%	22.1%	8.1%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.70–0.40 Model expected goals

34.3% Probability of over 2.5 goals

26.7% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 20.8%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-020.8%

2-017.7%

0-012.2%

3-010.0%

1-18.3%

2-17.1%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Estrela Vermelha	Mladost Lučani	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1603	1512	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	87	10	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1500	1496	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Estrela Vermelha	1.30	1.10	0.30	0.00
Mladost Lučani	0.40	0.60	0.60	0.60

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Estrela Vermelha	10%	10%	20%	30%	30%
Mladost Lučani	20%	20%	20%	10%	30%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

3.00 Estrela Vermelha at home, 6 matches

1.33 Mladost Lučani away, 6 matches

27d Days of rest for Estrela Vermelha

27d Days of rest for Mladost Lučani

— Manager of Estrela Vermelha

— Manager of Mladost Lučani

0 Matches for Estrela Vermelha in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Mladost Lučani in the last 14 days

0 Points for Estrela Vermelha behind the leaders, and 20 above the relegation zone

12 Points for Mladost Lučani behind the leaders, and 8 above the relegation zone

2.68 League goals per match

26.5% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Estrela Vermelha, the right bar represents Mladost Lučani.

On the ball

20 matches

4.33

corners

4.43

10.8

fouls

14.0

2.88

yellow cards

2.75

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Estrela Vermelha	WWWDWWWWWW	2.80	2.40–0.30	3W
Mladost Lučani	WLWLWWDDDD	1.60	1.00–1.20	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Estrela Vermelha	7	3	0	0	0
Mladost Lučani	3	3	4	1	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Estrela Vermelha

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Mladost Lučani

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.