Tornadoes

Tornadoes

VS Scheduled Sunday 1 Nov 202615:00

Nigeria 26/27 NPFL · Matchday 11

Barau

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-27	26/27	Nasarawa Utd1–0Tornadoes
2026-09-23	26/27	Tornadoes0–0Warri
2026-09-19	26/27	Katsina Utd1–0Tornadoes
2026-09-14	26/27	Tornadoes1–1Plateau Utd
2026-09-06	26/27	Kano Pillars3–2Tornadoes
2026-08-30	26/27	Tornadoes2–1Enyimba

Barau

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Sporting Lagos1–1Barau
2026-09-23	26/27	Barau2–0Abia
2026-09-19	26/27	Ikorodu City0–0Barau
2026-09-13	26/27	Barau3–1Ranchers Bees
2026-09-06	26/27	Kun Khalifat0–0Barau
2026-08-30	26/27	Barau3–1Nasarawa Utd

Tornadoes Barau

Wins

17%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

Both teams scored

50%

Clean sheets

17%

50%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Tornadoes

Home · NPFL

Home			Away		1st goal
17	Tornadoes		Barau	1
17	Tornadoes		Rivers Utd	2
17	Tornadoes	1–1	Plateau Utd	3	45+2′ Away
17	Tornadoes		Enugu	4
17	Tornadoes		Doma United	5
17	Tornadoes		Kano Pillars	6
17	Tornadoes		Bendel Ins.	7
17	Tornadoes		Ikorodu City	8
17	Tornadoes		Abia	9
17	Tornadoes		Kwara Utd	10
17	Tornadoes		Ranchers Bees	11
17	Tornadoes		Sporting Lagos	12
17	Tornadoes	0–0	Warri	13	–
17	Tornadoes		Nasarawa Utd	14
17	Tornadoes		Katsina Utd	15
17	Tornadoes		Shooting Stars	16
17 · Tornadoes
17	Tornadoes		Kun Khalifat	18
17	Tornadoes		Inter Lagos	19
17	Tornadoes	2–1	Enyimba	20	40′ Home

Barau

Away · NPFL

Home			Away		1st goal
1 · Barau
2	Rivers Utd		Barau	1
3	Plateau Utd		Barau	1
4	Enugu		Barau	1
5	Doma United		Barau	1
6	Kano Pillars		Barau	1
7	Bendel Ins.		Barau	1
8	Ikorodu City	0–0	Barau	1	–
9	Abia		Barau	1
10	Kwara Utd		Barau	1
11	Ranchers Bees		Barau	1
12	Sporting Lagos	1–1	Barau	1	35′ Away
13	Warri		Barau	1
14	Nasarawa Utd		Barau	1
15	Katsina Utd		Barau	1
16	Shooting Stars		Barau	1
17	Tornadoes		Barau	1
18	Kun Khalifat	0–0	Barau	1	–
19	Inter Lagos		Barau	1
20	Enyimba		Barau	1

Tornadoes Home Barau Away

Wins

33%

0%

Over 1.5

67%

33%

Over 2.5

33%

0%

Over 3.5

0%

Both teams scored

67%

33%

Clean sheets

33%

67%

Scores first

33%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

NPFL · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Tornadoes

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	1.67	0.00	0.83
Draws	66.7%	0.0%	33.3%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.67	0.83
Goals conceded / match	0.67	1.67	1.17
Total goals / match	1.67	2.33	2.00
Failed to score	33.3%	66.7%	50.0%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	66.7%	66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	0
31–45	1	1
46–60	0	0
61–75	0	1
76–90	2	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Barau

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.00	2.00
Draws	0.0%	100.0%	50.0%
Goals scored / match	2.67	0.33	1.50
Goals conceded / match	0.67	0.33	0.50
Total goals / match	3.33	0.67	2.00
Failed to score	0.0%	66.7%	33.3%
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	100.0%	66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	0
31–45	1	0
46–60	0	0
61–75	0	1
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Tornadoes	Draw	Barau	How it works
Strength (Elo)	37.3%	25.5%	37.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	12.4%	20.9%	65.4%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.68–1.91 Model expected goals

46.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

41.2% Both teams to score

0-1 Most likely score, at 14.4%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-114.4%

0-213.7%

1-19.7%

1-29.3%

0-38.7%

0-07.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Tornadoes	Barau	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1479	1539	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-29	27	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1492	1503	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Tornadoes	0.17	0.67	0.83	0.33
Barau	0.67	0.83	0.17	0.33

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Tornadoes	17%	33%	17%	17%	17%
Barau	33%	0%	33%	0%	33%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.67 Tornadoes at home, 3 matches

1.00 Barau away, 3 matches

35d Days of rest for Tornadoes

36d Days of rest for Barau

— Manager of Tornadoes

— Manager of Barau

0 Matches for Tornadoes in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Barau in the last 14 days

7 Points for Tornadoes behind the leaders, and 0 above the relegation zone

0 Points for Barau behind the leaders, and 7 above the relegation zone

2.45 League goals per match

25.5% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Tornadoes, the right bar represents Barau.

On the ball

20 matches

5.67

corners

5.6

17.0

fouls

16.75

1.25

yellow cards

2.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Tornadoes	LDLDLW	0.83	0.83–1.17	1L
Barau	DWDWDW	2.00	1.50–0.50	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Tornadoes	1	1	4	0	0
Barau	3	3	0	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Tornadoes

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Barau

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.