Barau

Barau

VS Scheduled Sunday 10 Jan 202715:00

Nigeria 26/27 NPFL · Matchday 20

Warri

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Sporting Lagos1–1Barau
2026-09-23	26/27	Barau2–0Abia
2026-09-19	26/27	Ikorodu City0–0Barau
2026-09-13	26/27	Barau3–1Ranchers Bees
2026-09-06	26/27	Kun Khalifat0–0Barau
2026-08-30	26/27	Barau3–1Nasarawa Utd

Warri

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-27	26/27	Warri1–0Shooting Stars
2026-09-23	26/27	Tornadoes0–0Warri
2026-09-20	26/27	Warri1–0Kwara Utd
2026-09-16	26/27	Rivers Utd2–0Warri
2026-08-30	26/27	Bendel Ins.2–1Warri

Barau Warri

Wins

50%

40%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

20%

Both teams scored

50%

20%

Clean sheets

50%

60%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Barau

Home · NPFL

Home			Away		1st goal
1 · Barau
1	Barau		Rivers Utd	2
1	Barau		Plateau Utd	3
1	Barau		Enugu	4
1	Barau		Doma United	5
1	Barau		Kano Pillars	6
1	Barau		Bendel Ins.	7
1	Barau		Ikorodu City	8
1	Barau	2–0	Abia	9	22′ Home
1	Barau		Kwara Utd	10
1	Barau	3–1	Ranchers Bees	11	29′ Home
1	Barau		Sporting Lagos	12
1	Barau		Warri	13
1	Barau	3–1	Nasarawa Utd	14	15′ Home
1	Barau		Katsina Utd	15
1	Barau		Shooting Stars	16
1	Barau		Tornadoes	17
1	Barau		Kun Khalifat	18
1	Barau		Inter Lagos	19
1	Barau		Enyimba	20

Warri

Away · NPFL

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Barau		Warri	13
2	Rivers Utd	2–0	Warri	13	22′ Home
3	Plateau Utd		Warri	13
4	Enugu		Warri	13
5	Doma United		Warri	13
6	Kano Pillars		Warri	13
7	Bendel Ins.	2–1	Warri	13	5′ Away
8	Ikorodu City		Warri	13
9	Abia		Warri	13
10	Kwara Utd		Warri	13
11	Ranchers Bees		Warri	13
12	Sporting Lagos		Warri	13
13 · Warri
14	Nasarawa Utd		Warri	13
15	Katsina Utd		Warri	13
16	Shooting Stars		Warri	13
17	Tornadoes	0–0	Warri	13	–
18	Kun Khalifat		Warri	13
19	Inter Lagos		Warri	13
20	Enyimba		Warri	13

Barau Home Warri Away

Wins

100%

0%

Over 1.5

100%

67%

Over 2.5

67%

33%

Over 3.5

67%

0%

Both teams scored

67%

33%

Clean sheets

33%

Scores first

100%

33%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

NPFL · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Barau

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.00	2.00
Draws	0.0%	100.0%	50.0%
Goals scored / match	2.67	0.33	1.50
Goals conceded / match	0.67	0.33	0.50
Total goals / match	3.33	0.67	2.00
Failed to score	0.0%	66.7%	33.3%
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	100.0%	66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 3	67%
Scores first → wins	3 of 3	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 3/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	0
16–30	2	1
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	0
61–75	1	0
76–90	4	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Warri

5 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away3 matches	Overall5 matches
Points / match	3.00	0.33	1.40
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.33	0.60
Goals conceded / match	0.00	1.33	0.80
Total goals / match	1.00	1.67	1.40
Failed to score	0.0%	66.7%	40.0%
Under 2.5 goals	100.0%	66.7%	80.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	0
16–30	0	2
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	1
61–75	0	1
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Barau	Draw	Warri	How it works
Strength (Elo)	49.2%	23.1%	27.7%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	38.7%	43.1%	18.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.71–0.39 Model expected goals

10.0% Probability of over 2.5 goals

16.5% Both teams to score

0-0 Most likely score, at 33.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-033.2%

1-023.6%

0-113.0%

1-19.3%

2-08.4%

2-13.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Barau	Warri	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1539	1500	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	27	8	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1503	1503	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Barau	0.67	0.83	0.17	0.33
Warri	0.60	0.00	0.40	0.40

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Barau	33%	0%	33%	0%	33%
Warri	20%	40%	20%	20%	0%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

3.00 Barau at home, 3 matches

0.33 Warri away, 3 matches

106d Days of rest for Barau

105d Days of rest for Warri

— Manager of Barau

— Manager of Warri

0 Matches for Barau in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Warri in the last 14 days

0 Points for Barau behind the leaders, and 7 above the relegation zone

5 Points for Warri behind the leaders, and 2 above the relegation zone

2.45 League goals per match

25.5% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Barau, the right bar represents Warri.

On the ball

20 matches

5.6

corners

1.0

16.75

fouls

26.0

2.5

yellow cards

1.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Barau	DWDWDW	2.00	1.50–0.50	1D
Warri	WDWLL	1.40	0.60–0.80	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Barau	3	3	0	0	1
Warri	2	2	1	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Barau

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Warri

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.