Erbil

Erbil

VS Scheduled Saturday 17 Oct 202616:00

Iraq 26/27 Iraq Stars League · Matchday 10

Al Mosul

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-18	26/27	Karbala0–3Erbil
2026-09-14	26/27	Erbil1–2Al-Karma
2026-09-08	26/27	Erbil2–0Diala
2026-09-04	26/27	Shorta0–0Erbil
2026-08-31	26/27	Erbil2–0Minaa Basra
2026-08-25	26/27	Karkh0–1Erbil
2026-08-21	26/27	Erbil1–1Quwa
2026-08-16	26/27	Erbil2–0Kahrabaa

Al Mosul

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-18	26/27	Al Mosul0–1Naft
2026-09-13	26/27	Zakho2–1Al Mosul
2026-09-09	26/27	Newroz SC3–0Al Mosul
2026-09-03	26/27	Al Mosul2–2Zawra'a
2026-08-30	26/27	Shorta2–0Al Mosul
2026-08-26	26/27	Al Mosul3–0Karbala
2026-08-21	26/27	Al Mosul2–1Diala
2026-08-15	26/27	Al-Karma1–1Al Mosul

Erbil Al Mosul

Wins

62%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

25%

62%

Both teams scored

25%

50%

Clean sheets

75%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Erbil

Home · Iraq Stars League

Home			Away		1st goal
3	Erbil	1–2	Al-Karma	1	6′ Away
3	Erbil		Zawra'a	2
3 · Erbil
3	Erbil		Shorta	4
3	Erbil		Naft	5
3	Erbil		Newroz SC	6
3	Erbil	2–0	Minaa Basra	7	—
3	Erbil		Talaba	8
3	Erbil		Al Jolan SC	9
3	Erbil		Duhok	10
3	Erbil	2–0	Diala	11	16′ Home
3	Erbil		Zakho	12
3	Erbil	1–1	Quwa	13	—
3	Erbil		Ghaz Al Shamal SC	14
3	Erbil		Al Mosul	15
3	Erbil		Karkh	16
3	Erbil	2–0	Kahrabaa	17	23′ Home
3	Erbil		Maysan	18
3	Erbil		Al Gharraf	19
3	Erbil		Karbala	20

Al Mosul

Away · Iraq Stars League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Al-Karma	1–1	Al Mosul	15	—
2	Zawra'a		Al Mosul	15
3	Erbil		Al Mosul	15
4	Shorta	2–0	Al Mosul	15	49′ Home
5	Naft		Al Mosul	15
6	Newroz SC	3–0	Al Mosul	15	12′ Home
7	Minaa Basra		Al Mosul	15
8	Talaba		Al Mosul	15
9	Al Jolan SC		Al Mosul	15
10	Duhok		Al Mosul	15
11	Diala		Al Mosul	15
12	Zakho	2–1	Al Mosul	15	12′ Home
13	Quwa		Al Mosul	15
14	Ghaz Al Shamal SC		Al Mosul	15
15 · Al Mosul
16	Karkh		Al Mosul	15
17	Kahrabaa		Al Mosul	15
18	Maysan		Al Mosul	15
19	Al Gharraf		Al Mosul	15
20	Karbala		Al Mosul	15

Erbil Home Al Mosul Away

Wins

60%

0%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

20%

50%

Over 3.5

0%

Both teams scored

40%

50%

Clean sheets

60%

0%

Scores first

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Iraq Stars League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Erbil

8 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away3 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	2.00	2.33	2.12
Draws	20.0%	33.3%	25.0%
Goals scored / match	1.60	1.33	1.50
Goals conceded / match	0.60	0.00	0.38
Total goals / match	2.20	1.33	1.88
Failed to score	0.0%	33.3%	12.5%
Under 2.5 goals	80.0%	66.7%	75.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 4/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Al Mosul

8 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away4 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	1.75	0.25	1.00
Draws	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Goals scored / match	1.75	0.50	1.12
Goals conceded / match	1.00	2.00	1.50
Total goals / match	2.75	2.50	2.62
Failed to score	25.0%	50.0%	37.5%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	50.0%	37.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Erbil	Draw	Al Mosul	How it works
Strength (Elo)	46.4%	32.3%	21.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	64.7%	24.0%	10.7%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.61–0.48 Model expected goals

34.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals

30.2% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 19.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-019.9%

2-016.0%

0-012.4%

1-19.6%

3-08.6%

2-17.7%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Erbil	Al Mosul	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1551	1475	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	38	-26	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1502	1506	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Erbil	0.88	0.62	0.25	0.12
Al Mosul	0.38	0.75	0.62	0.88

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Erbil	12%	12%	50%	25%	0%
Al Mosul	0%	12%	25%	50%	12%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.00 Erbil at home, 5 matches

0.25 Al Mosul away, 4 matches

29d Days of rest for Erbil

29d Days of rest for Al Mosul

— Manager of Erbil

— Manager of Al Mosul

0 Matches for Erbil in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Al Mosul in the last 14 days

3 Points for Erbil behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone

12 Points for Al Mosul behind the leaders, and 1 above the relegation zone

2.29 League goals per match

38.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Erbil, the right bar represents Al Mosul.

On the ball

20 matches

4.88

corners

3.5

9.0

fouls

8.0

2.29

yellow cards

1.6

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Erbil	WLWDWWDW	2.12	1.50–0.38	1W
Al Mosul	LLLDLWWD	1.00	1.12–1.50	3L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Erbil	5	2	1	0	0
Al Mosul	2	3	3	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Erbil

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Al Mosul

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.