Erbil

Erbil

VS Scheduled Friday 11 Dec 202600:00

Iraq 26/27 Iraq Stars League · Matchday 17

Naft

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-18	26/27	Karbala0–3Erbil
2026-09-14	26/27	Erbil1–2Al-Karma
2026-09-08	26/27	Erbil2–0Diala
2026-09-04	26/27	Shorta0–0Erbil
2026-08-31	26/27	Erbil2–0Minaa Basra
2026-08-25	26/27	Karkh0–1Erbil
2026-08-21	26/27	Erbil1–1Quwa
2026-08-16	26/27	Erbil2–0Kahrabaa

Naft

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-18	26/27	Al Mosul0–1Naft
2026-09-14	26/27	Naft2–1Karbala
2026-09-09	26/27	Al-Karma3–0Naft
2026-09-05	26/27	Minaa Basra0–3Naft
2026-08-31	26/27	Talaba0–0Naft
2026-08-26	26/27	Naft1–1Duhok
2026-08-20	26/27	Maysan0–0Naft
2026-08-14	26/27	Naft2–0Karkh

Erbil Naft

Wins

62%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

25%

38%

Both teams scored

25%

Clean sheets

75%

62%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Erbil

Home · Iraq Stars League

Home			Away		1st goal
3	Erbil	1–2	Al-Karma	1	6′ Away
3	Erbil		Zawra'a	2
3 · Erbil
3	Erbil		Shorta	4
3	Erbil		Naft	5
3	Erbil		Newroz SC	6
3	Erbil	2–0	Minaa Basra	7	—
3	Erbil		Talaba	8
3	Erbil		Al Jolan SC	9
3	Erbil		Duhok	10
3	Erbil	2–0	Diala	11	16′ Home
3	Erbil		Zakho	12
3	Erbil	1–1	Quwa	13	—
3	Erbil		Ghaz Al Shamal SC	14
3	Erbil		Al Mosul	15
3	Erbil		Karkh	16
3	Erbil	2–0	Kahrabaa	17	23′ Home
3	Erbil		Maysan	18
3	Erbil		Al Gharraf	19
3	Erbil		Karbala	20

Naft

Away · Iraq Stars League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Al-Karma	3–0	Naft	5	13′ Home
2	Zawra'a		Naft	5
3	Erbil		Naft	5
4	Shorta		Naft	5
5 · Naft
6	Newroz SC		Naft	5
7	Minaa Basra	0–3	Naft	5	11′ Away
8	Talaba	0–0	Naft	5	–
9	Al Jolan SC		Naft	5
10	Duhok		Naft	5
11	Diala		Naft	5
12	Zakho		Naft	5
13	Quwa		Naft	5
14	Ghaz Al Shamal SC		Naft	5
15	Al Mosul	0–1	Naft	5	90+8′ Away
16	Karkh		Naft	5
17	Kahrabaa		Naft	5
18	Maysan	0–0	Naft	5	–
19	Al Gharraf		Naft	5
20	Karbala		Naft	5

Erbil Home Naft Away

Wins

60%

40%

Over 1.5

100%

40%

Over 2.5

20%

40%

Over 3.5

0%

Both teams scored

40%

0%

Clean sheets

60%

80%

Scores first

N/A

40%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Iraq Stars League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Erbil

8 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away3 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	2.00	2.33	2.12
Draws	20.0%	33.3%	25.0%
Goals scored / match	1.60	1.33	1.50
Goals conceded / match	0.60	0.00	0.38
Total goals / match	2.20	1.33	1.88
Failed to score	0.0%	33.3%	12.5%
Under 2.5 goals	80.0%	66.7%	75.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 4/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Naft

8 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away5 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	2.33	1.60	1.88
Draws	33.3%	40.0%	37.5%
Goals scored / match	1.67	0.80	1.12
Goals conceded / match	0.67	0.60	0.62
Total goals / match	2.33	1.40	1.75
Failed to score	0.0%	60.0%	37.5%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	60.0%	62.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	0	1
31–45	2	0
46–60	0	1
61–75	0	0
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Erbil	Draw	Naft	How it works
Strength (Elo)	38.4%	36.7%	25.0%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	34.5%	42.8%	22.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.66–0.48 Model expected goals

10.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

18.5% Both teams to score

0-0 Most likely score, at 31.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-031.9%

1-021.2%

0-115.3%

1-110.1%

2-07.0%

0-23.7%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Erbil	Naft	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1551	1536	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	38	24	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1502	1500	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Erbil	0.88	0.62	0.25	0.12
Naft	0.62	0.50	0.38	0.25

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Erbil	12%	12%	50%	25%	0%
Naft	25%	12%	25%	38%	0%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.00 Erbil at home, 5 matches

1.60 Naft away, 5 matches

84d Days of rest for Erbil

84d Days of rest for Naft

— Manager of Erbil

— Manager of Naft

0 Matches for Erbil in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Naft in the last 14 days

3 Points for Erbil behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone

5 Points for Naft behind the leaders, and 8 above the relegation zone

2.29 League goals per match

38.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Erbil, the right bar represents Naft.

On the ball

20 matches

4.88

corners

2.71

9.0

fouls

13.0

2.29

yellow cards

2.57

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Erbil	WLWDWWDW	2.12	1.50–0.38	1W
Naft	WWLWDDDW	1.88	1.12–0.62	2W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Erbil	5	2	1	0	0
Naft	2	4	2	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Erbil

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Naft

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.