Motagua

VS Scheduled Saturday 10 Oct 202602:30

Honduras 26/27 Liga Nacional · Matchday 9

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Real España1–0Motagua
2026-09-13	26/27	Motagua1–0Génesis
2026-09-06	26/27	Atlético Independiente0–0Motagua
2026-08-30	26/27	Motagua2–1Olancho
2026-08-22	26/27	Motagua4–1UPNFM
2026-08-17	26/27	Olimpia3–1Motagua
2026-08-10	26/27	Motagua0–2Estrella Roja
2026-08-02	26/27	Juticalpa0–3Motagua

Choloma

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Choloma2–0Estrella Roja
2026-09-13	26/27	UPNFM1–0Choloma
2026-09-05	26/27	Choloma0–0Olancho
2026-08-31	26/27	Real España2–1Choloma
2026-08-23	26/27	Choloma2–0Platense
2026-08-16	26/27	Choloma0–1Marathón
2026-08-10	26/27	Atlético Independiente2–1Choloma
2026-08-01	26/27	Génesis2–0Choloma

Motagua Choloma

Wins

50%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

25%

Both teams scored

38%

25%

Clean sheets

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Motagua

Home · Liga Nacional

Home			Away		1st goal
4	Motagua		Real España	1
4	Motagua		Olimpia	2
4	Motagua		Marathón	3
4 · Motagua
4	Motagua	1–0	Génesis	5	80′ Home
4	Motagua	2–1	Olancho	6	—
4	Motagua	0–2	Estrella Roja	7	55′ Away
4	Motagua		Atlético Independiente	8
4	Motagua	4–1	UPNFM	9	13′ Home
4	Motagua		Choloma	10
4	Motagua		Juticalpa	11
4	Motagua		Platense	12

Choloma

Away · Liga Nacional

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Real España	2–1	Choloma	10	10′ Home
2	Olimpia		Choloma	10
3	Marathón		Choloma	10
4	Motagua		Choloma	10
5	Génesis	2–0	Choloma	10	44′ Home
6	Olancho		Choloma	10
7	Estrella Roja		Choloma	10
8	Atlético Independiente	2–1	Choloma	10	22′ Away
9	UPNFM	1–0	Choloma	10	5′ Home
10 · Choloma
11	Juticalpa		Choloma	10
12	Platense		Choloma	10

Motagua Home Choloma Away

Wins

75%

0%

Over 1.5

75%

Over 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

25%

0%

Both teams scored

50%

Clean sheets

25%

0%

Scores first

50%

25%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Liga Nacional · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Motagua

8 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away4 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	2.25	1.00	1.62
Draws	0.0%	25.0%	12.5%
Goals scored / match	1.75	1.00	1.38
Goals conceded / match	1.00	1.00	1.00
Total goals / match	2.75	2.00	2.38
Failed to score	25.0%	50.0%	37.5%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Choloma

8 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away4 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	1.75	0.00	0.88
Draws	25.0%	0.0%	12.5%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.50	0.75
Goals conceded / match	0.25	1.75	1.00
Total goals / match	1.25	2.25	1.75
Failed to score	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%
Under 2.5 goals	100.0%	50.0%	75.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	2
16–30	1	2
31–45	0	3
46–60	0	0
61–75	1	0
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Motagua	Draw	Choloma	How it works
Goals (Poisson)	35.2%	34.2%	30.5%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.88–0.80 Model expected goals

23.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

32.3% Both teams to score

0-0 Most likely score, at 18.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-018.6%

1-016.4%

0-114.9%

1-113.1%

2-07.2%

0-25.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Motagua	Choloma	How to read it

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Motagua	0.50	0.88	0.25	0.75
Choloma	0.38	0.38	0.88	0.12

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Motagua	12%	25%	12%	25%	25%
Choloma	12%	25%	38%	25%	0%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.25 Motagua at home, 4 matches

0.00 Choloma away, 4 matches

20d Days of rest for Motagua

21d Days of rest for Choloma

— Manager of Motagua

— Manager of Choloma

0 Matches for Motagua in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Choloma in the last 14 days

5 Points for Motagua behind the leaders, and 5 above the relegation zone

11 Points for Choloma behind the leaders, and -1 above the relegation zone

2.50 League goals per match

27.1% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Motagua, the right bar represents Choloma.

On the ball

20 matches

7.17

corners

5.38

9.5

fouls

13.0

2.0

yellow cards

3.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Motagua	LWDWWLLW	1.62	1.38–1.00	1L
Choloma	WLDLWLLL	0.88	0.75–1.00	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Motagua	1	6	1	1	0
Choloma	1	3	4	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Motagua

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Choloma

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.