UPNFM

UPNFM

VS Scheduled Sunday 11 Oct 202602:00

Honduras 26/27 Liga Nacional · Matchday 9

Marathón

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-18	26/27	Platense0–2UPNFM
2026-09-13	26/27	UPNFM1–0Choloma
2026-09-07	26/27	Real España2–0UPNFM
2026-08-29	26/27	Juticalpa1–0UPNFM
2026-08-22	26/27	Motagua4–1UPNFM
2026-08-16	26/27	UPNFM2–2Estrella Roja
2026-08-09	26/27	UPNFM1–1Olancho
2026-08-03	26/27	Olimpia2–0UPNFM

Marathón

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-21	26/27	Juticalpa3–2Marathón
2026-09-14	26/27	Marathón1–0Olimpia
2026-09-06	26/27	Marathón5–0Estrella Roja
2026-08-29	26/27	Génesis1–2Marathón
2026-08-23	26/27	Marathón1–1Real España
2026-08-16	26/27	Choloma0–1Marathón
2026-08-08	26/27	Platense1–1Marathón
2026-08-04	26/27	Marathón1–0Atlético Independiente

UPNFM Marathón

Wins

25%

62%

Over 2.5 goals

25%

38%

Both teams scored

38%

50%

Clean sheets

25%

50%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

UPNFM

Home · Liga Nacional

Home			Away		1st goal
9	UPNFM		Real España	1
9	UPNFM		Olimpia	2
9	UPNFM		Marathón	3
9	UPNFM		Motagua	4
9	UPNFM		Génesis	5
9	UPNFM	1–1	Olancho	6	81′ Away
9	UPNFM	2–2	Estrella Roja	7	56′ Home
9	UPNFM		Atlético Independiente	8
9 · UPNFM
9	UPNFM	1–0	Choloma	10	5′ Home
9	UPNFM		Juticalpa	11
9	UPNFM		Platense	12

Marathón

Away · Liga Nacional

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Real España		Marathón	3
2	Olimpia		Marathón	3
3 · Marathón
4	Motagua		Marathón	3
5	Génesis	1–2	Marathón	3	39′ Home
6	Olancho		Marathón	3
7	Estrella Roja		Marathón	3
8	Atlético Independiente		Marathón	3
9	UPNFM		Marathón	3
10	Choloma	0–1	Marathón	3	90+3′ Away
11	Juticalpa	3–2	Marathón	3	—
12	Platense	1–1	Marathón	3	44′ Away

UPNFM Home Marathón Away

Wins

33%

50%

Over 1.5

67%

75%

Over 2.5

33%

50%

Over 3.5

33%

25%

Both teams scored

67%

75%

Clean sheets

33%

25%

Scores first

67%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Liga Nacional · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

UPNFM

8 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away5 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	1.67	0.60	1.00
Draws	66.7%	0.0%	25.0%
Goals scored / match	1.33	0.60	0.88
Goals conceded / match	1.00	1.80	1.50
Total goals / match	2.33	2.40	2.38
Failed to score	0.0%	60.0%	37.5%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	80.0%	75.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	1 of 2	50%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	0
16–30	0	0
31–45	0	0
46–60	1	1
61–75	0	0
76–90	2	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Marathón

8 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away4 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	2.50	1.75	2.12
Draws	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.50	1.75
Goals conceded / match	0.25	1.25	0.75
Total goals / match	2.25	2.75	2.50
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	75.0%	50.0%	62.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	UPNFM	Draw	Marathón	How it works
Goals (Poisson)	8.1%	15.9%	72.7%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.62–2.34 Model expected goals

53.7% Probability of over 2.5 goals

40.5% Both teams to score

0-2 Most likely score, at 14.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-214.1%

0-112.0%

0-311.0%

1-28.8%

1-17.5%

1-36.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	UPNFM	Marathón	How to read it

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
UPNFM	0.38	0.50	0.88	0.62
Marathón	1.00	0.75	0.50	0.25

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
UPNFM	0%	25%	50%	0%	25%
Marathón	0%	38%	25%	12%	25%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.67 UPNFM at home, 3 matches

1.75 Marathón away, 4 matches

23d Days of rest for UPNFM

20d Days of rest for Marathón

— Manager of UPNFM

— Manager of Marathón

0 Matches for UPNFM in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Marathón in the last 14 days

10 Points for UPNFM behind the leaders, and 0 above the relegation zone

1 Points for Marathón behind the leaders, and 9 above the relegation zone

2.50 League goals per match

27.1% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents UPNFM, the right bar represents Marathón.

On the ball

20 matches

4.57

corners

5.62

16.67

fouls

22.0

2.75

yellow cards

2.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
UPNFM	WWLLLDDL	1.00	0.88–1.50	2W
Marathón	LWWWDWDW	2.12	1.75–0.75	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
UPNFM	2	3	3	0	0
Marathón	3	4	1	1	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

UPNFM

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Marathón

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.