Connah's Quay

Connah's Quay

VS Scheduled Saturday 3 Oct 202614:30

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 12

Penybont

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Barry Town1–4Connah's Quay
2026-09-18	26/27	Connah's Quay1–0Cardiff MU
2026-09-15	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Airbus
2026-09-12	26/27	Colwyn Bay2–1Connah's Quay
2026-09-04	26/27	Connah's Quay1–1Haverfordwest
2026-08-31	26/27	Flint Town Utd1–2Connah's Quay
2026-08-28	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Cambrian
2026-08-22	26/27	Ammanford0–2Connah's Quay

Penybont

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Penybont2–1Airbus
2026-09-18	26/27	Ammanford1–5Penybont
2026-09-15	26/27	Penybont3–2Briton Ferry
2026-09-11	26/27	Trefelin0–1Penybont
2026-09-05	26/27	Penybont1–0Colwyn Bay
2026-08-31	26/27	Cambrian2–2Penybont
2026-08-28	26/27	Penybont1–1Flint Town Utd
2026-08-21	26/27	Penybont2–1Llandudno

Connah's Quay Penybont

Wins

75%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

Both teams scored

50%

75%

Clean sheets

50%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Connah's Quay

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
3	Connah's Quay		TNS	1
3	Connah's Quay		Penybont	2
3 · Connah's Quay
3	Connah's Quay	1–2	Caernarfon	4	26′ Home
3	Connah's Quay		Colwyn Bay	5
3	Connah's Quay		Barry Town	6
3	Connah's Quay	3–0	Cambrian	7	2′ Home
3	Connah's Quay		Llandudno	8
3	Connah's Quay	1–0	Cardiff MU	9	70′ Home
3	Connah's Quay	3–0	Airbus	10	58′ Home
3	Connah's Quay	1–1	Haverfordwest	11	50′ Away
3	Connah's Quay		Briton Ferry	12
3	Connah's Quay		Flint Town Utd	13
3	Connah's Quay	6–0	Trefelin	14	14′ Home
3	Connah's Quay		Ammanford	15
3	Connah's Quay		Holywell	16

Penybont

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Penybont	2
2 · Penybont
3	Connah's Quay		Penybont	2
4	Caernarfon	1–2	Penybont	2	5′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay		Penybont	2
6	Barry Town		Penybont	2
7	Cambrian	2–2	Penybont	2	30′ Home
8	Llandudno		Penybont	2
9	Cardiff MU		Penybont	2
10	Airbus		Penybont	2
11	Haverfordwest	0–3	Penybont	2	30′ Away
12	Briton Ferry		Penybont	2
13	Flint Town Utd		Penybont	2
14	Trefelin	0–1	Penybont	2	70′ Away
15	Ammanford	1–5	Penybont	2	9′ Away
16	Holywell		Penybont	2

Connah's Quay Home Penybont Away

Wins

67%

80%

Over 1.5

83%

80%

Over 2.5

67%

80%

Over 3.5

17%

40%

Both teams scored

33%

60%

Clean sheets

67%

40%

Scores first

83%

60%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Connah's Quay

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.17	2.40	2.27
Draws	16.7%	0.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.50	2.40	2.45
Goals conceded / match	0.50	1.00	0.73
Total goals / match	3.00	3.40	3.18
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	20.0%	27.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 5	60%
Scores first → wins	4 of 5	80%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	2	0
31–45	1	0
46–60	4	2
61–75	2	1
76–90	4	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Penybont

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.33	2.60	2.45
Draws	33.3%	20.0%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	1.50	2.60	2.00
Goals conceded / match	0.83	0.80	0.82
Total goals / match	2.33	3.40	2.82
Failed to score	16.7%	0.0%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	20.0%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 3	67%
Scores first → wins	3 of 3	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	2	1
31–45	6	0
46–60	0	0
61–75	1	1
76–90	3	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Connah's Quay	Draw	Penybont	How it works
Strength (Elo)	49.7%	16.5%	33.8%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	38.3%	30.3%	31.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.09–0.96 Model expected goals

33.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals

40.8% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 14.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-014.1%

1-113.5%

0-012.9%

0-112.3%

2-07.7%

2-17.4%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Connah's Quay	Penybont	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1585	1578	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	97	79	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1494	1482	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Connah's Quay	1.27	1.18	0.09	0.64
Penybont	1.36	0.64	0.36	0.45

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Connah's Quay	0%	9%	18%	46%	27%
Penybont	9%	18%	9%	36%	27%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.17 Connah's Quay at home, 6 matches

2.60 Penybont away, 5 matches

7d Days of rest for Connah's Quay

7d Days of rest for Penybont

— Manager of Connah's Quay

— Manager of Penybont

1 Matches for Connah's Quay in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Penybont in the last 14 days

6 Points for Connah's Quay behind the leaders, and 20 above the relegation zone

4 Points for Penybont behind the leaders, and 22 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Connah's Quay, the right bar represents Penybont.

On the ball

20 matches

6.75

corners

4.11

—

fouls

9.5

2.25

yellow cards

2.71

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Connah's Quay	WWWLDWWWWW	2.50	2.60–0.60	3W
Penybont	WWWWWDDWWW	2.60	2.20–0.90	5W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Connah's Quay	8	3	0	0	2
Penybont	7	3	1	1	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Connah's Quay

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Penybont

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.