Airbus

VS Scheduled Saturday 3 Oct 202614:30

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 12

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Penybont2–1Airbus
2026-09-18	26/27	Airbus4–1Flint Town Utd
2026-09-15	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Airbus
2026-09-11	26/27	Airbus0–2TNS
2026-09-04	26/27	Briton Ferry0–2Airbus
2026-08-31	26/27	Airbus6–2Holywell
2026-08-28	26/27	Barry Town4–2Airbus
2026-08-21	26/27	Colwyn Bay1–0Airbus

Trefelin

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Trefelin1–3TNS
2026-09-18	26/27	Briton Ferry1–1Trefelin
2026-09-15	26/27	Trefelin0–4Cambrian
2026-09-11	26/27	Trefelin0–1Penybont
2026-09-04	26/27	Holywell1–1Trefelin
2026-08-31	26/27	Haverfordwest2–1Trefelin
2026-08-28	26/27	Trefelin1–1Ammanford
2026-08-21	26/27	Trefelin0–2Caernarfon

Airbus Trefelin

Wins

38%

0%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

38%

Both teams scored

50%

62%

Clean sheets

12%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Airbus

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
10	Airbus	0–2	TNS	1	30′ Away
10	Airbus		Penybont	2
10	Airbus		Connah's Quay	3
10	Airbus		Caernarfon	4
10	Airbus		Colwyn Bay	5
10	Airbus		Barry Town	6
10	Airbus		Cambrian	7
10	Airbus		Llandudno	8
10	Airbus	0–2	Cardiff MU	9	22′ Away
10 · Airbus
10	Airbus		Haverfordwest	11
10	Airbus		Briton Ferry	12
10	Airbus	4–1	Flint Town Utd	13	2′ Home
10	Airbus		Trefelin	14
10	Airbus	2–0	Ammanford	15	—
10	Airbus	6–2	Holywell	16	15′ Home

Trefelin

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Trefelin	14
2	Penybont		Trefelin	14
3	Connah's Quay	6–0	Trefelin	14	14′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Trefelin	14
5	Colwyn Bay	2–0	Trefelin	14	2′ Home
6	Barry Town		Trefelin	14
7	Cambrian		Trefelin	14
8	Llandudno		Trefelin	14
9	Cardiff MU		Trefelin	14
10	Airbus		Trefelin	14
11	Haverfordwest	2–1	Trefelin	14	58′ Home
12	Briton Ferry	1–1	Trefelin	14	44′ Home
13	Flint Town Utd		Trefelin	14
14 · Trefelin
15	Ammanford		Trefelin	14
16	Holywell	1–1	Trefelin	14	60′ Away

Airbus Home Trefelin Away

Wins

60%

0%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

40%

20%

Both teams scored

40%

60%

Clean sheets

20%

0%

Scores first

60%

20%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Airbus

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.80	1.00	1.36
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	2.40	1.00	1.64
Goals conceded / match	1.40	1.67	1.55
Total goals / match	3.80	2.67	3.18
Failed to score	40.0%	33.3%	36.4%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	50.0%	54.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 3	100%
Scores first → wins	3 of 3	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Trefelin

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	0.17	0.40	0.27
Draws	16.7%	40.0%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	0.33	0.60	0.45
Goals conceded / match	2.50	2.40	2.45
Total goals / match	2.83	3.00	2.91
Failed to score	66.7%	40.0%	54.5%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	60.0%	54.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 4	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	2
16–30	0	1
31–45	0	2
46–60	1	4
61–75	1	0
76–90	1	3

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Airbus	Draw	Trefelin	How it works
Strength (Elo)	61.8%	13.4%	24.8%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	71.0%	17.5%	9.1%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

2.18–0.62 Model expected goals

50.7% Probability of over 2.5 goals

39.9% Both teams to score

2-0 Most likely score, at 14.4%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

2-014.4%

1-013.2%

3-010.5%

2-19.0%

1-18.2%

3-16.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Airbus	Trefelin	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1495	1397	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-17	-91	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1508	1495	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Airbus	0.82	0.82	0.55	1.00
Trefelin	0.09	0.36	1.36	1.09

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Airbus	0%	18%	36%	18%	27%
Trefelin	0%	9%	46%	9%	36%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.80 Airbus at home, 5 matches

0.40 Trefelin away, 5 matches

7d Days of rest for Airbus

7d Days of rest for Trefelin

— Manager of Airbus

— Manager of Trefelin

1 Matches for Airbus in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Trefelin in the last 14 days

16 Points for Airbus behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone

28 Points for Trefelin behind the leaders, and -2 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Airbus, the right bar represents Trefelin.

On the ball

20 matches

3.67

corners

3.36

9.0

fouls

12.5

2.0

yellow cards

2.2

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Airbus	LWLLWWLLWL	1.20	1.70–1.70	1L
Trefelin	LDLLDLDLLL	0.30	0.50–2.50	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Airbus	5	2	4	0	1
Trefelin	0	3	8	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Airbus

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Trefelin

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.