TNS

TNS

VS Scheduled Saturday 3 Oct 202614:30

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 12

Cambrian

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Trefelin1–3TNS
2026-09-19	26/27	TNS2–1Llandudno
2026-09-15	26/27	TNS5–0Flint Town Utd
2026-09-11	26/27	Airbus0–2TNS
2026-09-05	26/27	TNS1–0Barry Town
2026-08-31	26/27	Caernarfon2–3TNS
2026-08-28	26/27	TNS5–1Colwyn Bay
2026-08-21	26/27	Cardiff MU0–5TNS

Cambrian

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cambrian4–3Llandudno
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Trefelin0–4Cambrian
2026-09-11	26/27	Cambrian2–1Holywell
2026-09-04	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Cambrian
2026-08-31	26/27	Cambrian2–2Penybont
2026-08-28	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Cambrian
2026-08-21	26/27	Haverfordwest0–3Cambrian

TNS Cambrian

Wins

100%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

100%

Both teams scored

50%

62%

Clean sheets

50%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

TNS

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1 · TNS
1	TNS		Penybont	2
1	TNS		Connah's Quay	3
1	TNS		Caernarfon	4
1	TNS	5–1	Colwyn Bay	5	26′ Home
1	TNS	1–0	Barry Town	6	88′ Home
1	TNS		Cambrian	7
1	TNS	2–1	Llandudno	8	45+1′ Away
1	TNS		Cardiff MU	9
1	TNS		Airbus	10
1	TNS	2–0	Haverfordwest	11	45+3′ Home
1	TNS	1–0	Briton Ferry	12	61′ Home
1	TNS	5–0	Flint Town Utd	13	17′ Home
1	TNS		Trefelin	14
1	TNS		Ammanford	15
1	TNS		Holywell	16

Cambrian

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Cambrian	7
2	Penybont		Cambrian	7
3	Connah's Quay	3–0	Cambrian	7	2′ Home
4	Caernarfon	9–1	Cambrian	7	16′ Away
5	Colwyn Bay		Cambrian	7
6	Barry Town	2–1	Cambrian	7	50′ Home
7 · Cambrian
8	Llandudno		Cambrian	7
9	Cardiff MU	2–2	Cambrian	7	45+1′ Home
10	Airbus		Cambrian	7
11	Haverfordwest	0–3	Cambrian	7	53′ Away
12	Briton Ferry		Cambrian	7
13	Flint Town Utd		Cambrian	7
14	Trefelin	0–4	Cambrian	7	26′ Away
15	Ammanford		Cambrian	7
16	Holywell		Cambrian	7

TNS Home Cambrian Away

Wins

100%

33%

Over 1.5

67%

100%

Over 2.5

50%

100%

Over 3.5

33%

50%

Both teams scored

33%

50%

Clean sheets

67%

33%

Scores first

83%

50%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

TNS

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	3.00	2.60	2.82
Draws	0.0%	20.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.67	2.60	2.64
Goals conceded / match	0.33	0.60	0.45
Total goals / match	3.00	3.20	3.09
Failed to score	0.0%	20.0%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	40.0%	45.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 5	60%
Scores first → wins	5 of 5	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	3	0
31–45	4	1
46–60	2	0
61–75	2	1
76–90	5	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Cambrian

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.20	1.17	1.64
Draws	40.0%	16.7%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.83	1.91
Goals conceded / match	1.40	2.67	2.09
Total goals / match	3.40	4.50	4.00
Failed to score	0.0%	16.7%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	0.0%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 3	33%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 6/6 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	2	2
31–45	0	3
46–60	3	3
61–75	3	3
76–90	3	4

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	TNS	Draw	Cambrian	How it works
Strength (Elo)	61.8%	13.4%	24.8%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	73.6%	11.6%	6.5%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

3.00–0.76 Model expected goals

64.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals

46.3% Both teams to score

3-0 Most likely score, at 10.4%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

3-010.4%

2-010.4%

3-18.0%

2-18.0%

4-07.8%

1-07.0%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	TNS	Cambrian	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1618	1519	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	116	27	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1503	1497	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
TNS	1.27	1.36	0.27	0.18
Cambrian	0.64	1.27	0.73	1.36

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
TNS	9%	18%	18%	9%	46%
Cambrian	0%	9%	9%	36%	46%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

3.00 TNS at home, 6 matches

1.17 Cambrian away, 6 matches

7d Days of rest for TNS

7d Days of rest for Cambrian

— Manager of TNS

— Manager of Cambrian

2 Matches for TNS in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Cambrian in the last 14 days

0 Points for TNS behind the leaders, and 26 above the relegation zone

13 Points for Cambrian behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents TNS, the right bar represents Cambrian.

On the ball

20 matches

7.0

corners

4.64

6.25

fouls

8.5

1.6

yellow cards

2.33

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
TNS	WWWWWWWWWW	3.00	2.90–0.50	10W
Cambrian	WLWWDDLWWD	1.80	2.00–2.10	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
TNS	7	3	1	1	0
Cambrian	3	4	4	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

TNS

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Cambrian

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.