Caernarfon

Caernarfon

VS Scheduled Saturday 3 Oct 202614:30

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 12

Barry Town

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Llandudno1–1Caernarfon
2026-09-11	26/27	Ammanford0–5Caernarfon
2026-09-04	26/27	Caernarfon3–0Flint Town Utd
2026-08-31	26/27	Caernarfon2–3TNS
2026-08-28	26/27	Holywell3–5Caernarfon
2026-08-21	26/27	Trefelin0–2Caernarfon

Barry Town

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Barry Town1–4Connah's Quay
2026-09-18	26/27	Colwyn Bay5–2Barry Town
2026-09-15	26/27	Barry Town2–2Ammanford
2026-09-11	26/27	Barry Town4–1Llandudno
2026-09-05	26/27	TNS1–0Barry Town
2026-08-31	26/27	Briton Ferry1–4Barry Town
2026-08-28	26/27	Barry Town4–2Airbus
2026-08-21	26/27	Holywell1–3Barry Town

Caernarfon Barry Town

Wins

62%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

88%

Both teams scored

62%

88%

Clean sheets

38%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Caernarfon

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
4	Caernarfon	2–3	TNS	1	14′ Away
4	Caernarfon	1–2	Penybont	2	5′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Connah's Quay	3
4 · Caernarfon
4	Caernarfon	3–0	Colwyn Bay	5	27′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Barry Town	6
4	Caernarfon	9–1	Cambrian	7	16′ Away
4	Caernarfon		Llandudno	8
4	Caernarfon		Cardiff MU	9
4	Caernarfon		Airbus	10
4	Caernarfon		Haverfordwest	11
4	Caernarfon		Briton Ferry	12
4	Caernarfon	3–0	Flint Town Utd	13	45′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Trefelin	14
4	Caernarfon		Ammanford	15
4	Caernarfon		Holywell	16

Barry Town

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS	1–0	Barry Town	6	88′ Home
2	Penybont		Barry Town	6
3	Connah's Quay		Barry Town	6
4	Caernarfon		Barry Town	6
5	Colwyn Bay	5–2	Barry Town	6	29′ Away
6 · Barry Town
7	Cambrian		Barry Town	6
8	Llandudno		Barry Town	6
9	Cardiff MU		Barry Town	6
10	Airbus		Barry Town	6
11	Haverfordwest		Barry Town	6
12	Briton Ferry	1–4	Barry Town	6	30′ Away
13	Flint Town Utd	2–3	Barry Town	6	5′ Away
14	Trefelin		Barry Town	6
15	Ammanford		Barry Town	6
16	Holywell	1–3	Barry Town	6	15′ Home

Caernarfon Home Barry Town Away

Wins

60%

Over 1.5

100%

80%

Over 2.5

100%

80%

Over 3.5

40%

80%

Both teams scored

60%

80%

Clean sheets

40%

0%

Scores first

60%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Caernarfon

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.80	2.33	2.09
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	3.60	2.83	3.18
Goals conceded / match	1.20	1.17	1.18
Total goals / match	4.80	4.00	4.36
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 3	67%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	3	3
31–45	3	1
46–60	3	0
61–75	6	1
76–90	2	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Barry Town

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.17	1.80	2.00
Draws	16.7%	0.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.33	2.40	2.36
Goals conceded / match	1.67	2.00	1.82
Total goals / match	4.00	4.40	4.18
Failed to score	0.0%	20.0%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	16.7%	20.0%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 3	67%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	2
16–30	2	1
31–45	3	1
46–60	1	3
61–75	3	1
76–90	2	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Caernarfon	Draw	Barry Town	How it works
Strength (Elo)	54.7%	15.4%	29.9%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	54.3%	15.6%	19.1%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

3.15–1.82 Model expected goals

76.3% Probability of over 2.5 goals

70.9% Both teams to score

3-1 Most likely score, at 6.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

3-16.6%

2-16.3%

3-26.0%

2-25.7%

4-15.2%

4-24.7%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Caernarfon	Barry Town	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1579	1534	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	67	25	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1494	1508	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Caernarfon	1.36	1.82	0.73	0.45
Barry Town	0.91	1.45	0.64	1.18

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Caernarfon	0%	0%	18%	36%	46%
Barry Town	0%	18%	0%	9%	73%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.80 Caernarfon at home, 5 matches

1.80 Barry Town away, 5 matches

7d Days of rest for Caernarfon

7d Days of rest for Barry Town

— Manager of Caernarfon

— Manager of Barry Town

1 Matches for Caernarfon in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Barry Town in the last 14 days

8 Points for Caernarfon behind the leaders, and 18 above the relegation zone

9 Points for Barry Town behind the leaders, and 17 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Caernarfon, the right bar represents Barry Town.

On the ball

20 matches

6.67

corners

5.11

6.0

fouls

11.25

3.17

yellow cards

2.6

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Caernarfon	DWDWWLWWWL	2.00	3.30–1.20	1D
Barry Town	LLDWLWWWWW	1.90	2.40–1.90	2L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Caernarfon	7	0	4	1	1
Barry Town	5	4	2	1	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Caernarfon

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Barry Town

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.