Briton Ferry

Briton Ferry

VS Scheduled Friday 9 Oct 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 13

Connah's Quay

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Holywell1–1Briton Ferry
2026-09-18	26/27	Briton Ferry1–1Trefelin
2026-09-15	26/27	Penybont3–2Briton Ferry
2026-09-11	26/27	Haverfordwest3–1Briton Ferry
2026-09-04	26/27	Briton Ferry0–2Airbus
2026-08-31	26/27	Briton Ferry1–4Barry Town
2026-08-28	26/27	Cardiff MU3–0Briton Ferry
2026-08-21	26/27	Flint Town Utd0–1Briton Ferry

Connah's Quay

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Barry Town1–4Connah's Quay
2026-09-18	26/27	Connah's Quay1–0Cardiff MU
2026-09-15	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Airbus
2026-09-12	26/27	Colwyn Bay2–1Connah's Quay
2026-09-04	26/27	Connah's Quay1–1Haverfordwest
2026-08-31	26/27	Flint Town Utd1–2Connah's Quay
2026-08-28	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Cambrian
2026-08-22	26/27	Ammanford0–2Connah's Quay

Briton Ferry Connah's Quay

Wins

12%

75%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

62%

Both teams scored

62%

50%

Clean sheets

12%

50%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Briton Ferry

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
12	Briton Ferry		TNS	1
12	Briton Ferry		Penybont	2
12	Briton Ferry		Connah's Quay	3
12	Briton Ferry		Caernarfon	4
12	Briton Ferry		Colwyn Bay	5
12	Briton Ferry	1–4	Barry Town	6	30′ Away
12	Briton Ferry		Cambrian	7
12	Briton Ferry		Llandudno	8
12	Briton Ferry		Cardiff MU	9
12	Briton Ferry	0–2	Airbus	10	20′ Away
12	Briton Ferry		Haverfordwest	11
12 · Briton Ferry
12	Briton Ferry		Flint Town Utd	13
12	Briton Ferry	1–1	Trefelin	14	44′ Home
12	Briton Ferry	2–1	Ammanford	15	12′ Away
12	Briton Ferry		Holywell	16

Connah's Quay

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Connah's Quay	3
2	Penybont		Connah's Quay	3
3 · Connah's Quay
4	Caernarfon		Connah's Quay	3
5	Colwyn Bay	2–1	Connah's Quay	3	10′ Away
6	Barry Town	1–4	Connah's Quay	3	19′ Away
7	Cambrian		Connah's Quay	3
8	Llandudno		Connah's Quay	3
9	Cardiff MU		Connah's Quay	3
10	Airbus		Connah's Quay	3
11	Haverfordwest		Connah's Quay	3
12	Briton Ferry		Connah's Quay	3
13	Flint Town Utd	1–2	Connah's Quay	3	10′ Away
14	Trefelin		Connah's Quay	3
15	Ammanford	0–2	Connah's Quay	3	43′ Away
16	Holywell	1–3	Connah's Quay	3	28′ Away

Briton Ferry Home Connah's Quay Away

Wins

25%

80%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

50%

80%

Over 3.5

25%

40%

Both teams scored

75%

80%

Clean sheets

0%

20%

Scores first

25%

100%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Briton Ferry

11 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away7 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.00	0.71	0.82
Draws	25.0%	28.6%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.86	0.91
Goals conceded / match	2.00	1.71	1.82
Total goals / match	3.00	2.57	2.73
Failed to score	25.0%	28.6%	27.3%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	57.1%	54.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 3	33%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	0	2
31–45	2	1
46–60	1	1
61–75	1	3
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Connah's Quay

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.17	2.40	2.27
Draws	16.7%	0.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.50	2.40	2.45
Goals conceded / match	0.50	1.00	0.73
Total goals / match	3.00	3.40	3.18
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	20.0%	27.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	5 of 5	100%
Scores first → wins	4 of 5	80%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	3	0
31–45	4	1
46–60	1	1
61–75	1	2
76–90	1	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Briton Ferry	Draw	Connah's Quay	How it works
Strength (Elo)	32.0%	16.1%	51.9%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	6.5%	12.0%	73.9%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.74–2.92 Model expected goals

63.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals

45.3% Both teams to score

0-2 Most likely score, at 11.0%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-211.0%

0-310.7%

1-28.1%

1-37.9%

0-47.8%

0-17.6%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Briton Ferry	Connah's Quay	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1441	1585	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-67	97	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1483	1494	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Briton Ferry	0.45	0.45	0.82	1.00
Connah's Quay	1.27	1.18	0.09	0.64

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Briton Ferry	0%	18%	36%	18%	27%
Connah's Quay	0%	9%	18%	46%	27%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.00 Briton Ferry at home, 4 matches

2.40 Connah's Quay away, 5 matches

13d Days of rest for Briton Ferry

13d Days of rest for Connah's Quay

— Manager of Briton Ferry

— Manager of Connah's Quay

1 Matches for Briton Ferry in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Connah's Quay in the last 14 days

22 Points for Briton Ferry behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

6 Points for Connah's Quay behind the leaders, and 20 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Briton Ferry, the right bar represents Connah's Quay.

On the ball

20 matches

5.18

corners

6.75

10.5

fouls

—

2.29

yellow cards

2.25

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Briton Ferry	DDLLLLLWLD	0.60	0.80–1.90	2D
Connah's Quay	WWWLDWWWWW	2.50	2.60–0.60	3W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Briton Ferry	3	3	5	0	2
Connah's Quay	8	3	0	0	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Briton Ferry

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Connah's Quay

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.