Cambrian

Cambrian

VS Scheduled Friday 9 Oct 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 13

Ammanford

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cambrian4–3Llandudno
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Trefelin0–4Cambrian
2026-09-11	26/27	Cambrian2–1Holywell
2026-09-04	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Cambrian
2026-08-31	26/27	Cambrian2–2Penybont
2026-08-28	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Cambrian
2026-08-21	26/27	Haverfordwest0–3Cambrian

Ammanford

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Flint Town Utd3–0Ammanford
2026-09-18	26/27	Ammanford1–5Penybont
2026-09-15	26/27	Barry Town2–2Ammanford
2026-09-11	26/27	Ammanford0–5Caernarfon
2026-09-04	26/27	Llandudno2–0Ammanford
2026-08-31	26/27	Ammanford0–5Cardiff MU
2026-08-28	26/27	Trefelin1–1Ammanford
2026-08-22	26/27	Ammanford0–2Connah's Quay

Cambrian Ammanford

Wins

50%

0%

Over 2.5 goals

100%

62%

Both teams scored

62%

38%

Clean sheets

25%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Cambrian

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
7	Cambrian		TNS	1
7	Cambrian	2–2	Penybont	2	30′ Home
7	Cambrian		Connah's Quay	3
7	Cambrian		Caernarfon	4
7	Cambrian		Colwyn Bay	5
7	Cambrian		Barry Town	6
7 · Cambrian
7	Cambrian	4–3	Llandudno	8	9′ Home
7	Cambrian		Cardiff MU	9
7	Cambrian		Airbus	10
7	Cambrian		Haverfordwest	11
7	Cambrian	1–1	Briton Ferry	12	31′ Away
7	Cambrian	1–0	Flint Town Utd	13	83′ Home
7	Cambrian		Trefelin	14
7	Cambrian		Ammanford	15
7	Cambrian	2–1	Holywell	16	36′ Home

Ammanford

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Ammanford	15
2	Penybont		Ammanford	15
3	Connah's Quay		Ammanford	15
4	Caernarfon		Ammanford	15
5	Colwyn Bay		Ammanford	15
6	Barry Town	2–2	Ammanford	15	16′ Home
7	Cambrian		Ammanford	15
8	Llandudno	2–0	Ammanford	15	—
9	Cardiff MU		Ammanford	15
10	Airbus	2–0	Ammanford	15	—
11	Haverfordwest		Ammanford	15
12	Briton Ferry	2–1	Ammanford	15	12′ Away
13	Flint Town Utd	3–0	Ammanford	15	—
14	Trefelin	1–1	Ammanford	15	36′ Away
15 · Ammanford
16	Holywell		Ammanford	15

Cambrian Home Ammanford Away

Wins

60%

0%

Over 1.5

80%

100%

Over 2.5

60%

50%

Over 3.5

40%

17%

Both teams scored

80%

50%

Clean sheets

20%

0%

Scores first

80%

33%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Cambrian

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.20	1.17	1.64
Draws	40.0%	16.7%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.83	1.91
Goals conceded / match	1.40	2.67	2.09
Total goals / match	3.40	4.50	4.00
Failed to score	0.0%	16.7%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	0.0%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 4	50%
Scores first → wins	3 of 4	75%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	1	0
31–45	2	2
46–60	2	1
61–75	2	1
76–90	1	3

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Ammanford

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	0.20	0.33	0.27
Draws	20.0%	33.3%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	0.60	0.67	0.64
Goals conceded / match	3.80	2.00	2.82
Total goals / match	4.40	2.67	3.45
Failed to score	60.0%	50.0%	54.5%
Under 2.5 goals	20.0%	50.0%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	0 of 2	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 4	0%

Scoring order known: 6/6 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Cambrian	Draw	Ammanford	How it works
Strength (Elo)	65.3%	12.2%	22.5%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	71.3%	12.8%	8.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

2.93–0.87 Model expected goals

65.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals

50.7% Both teams to score

2-0 Most likely score, at 9.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

2-09.6%

3-09.3%

2-18.4%

3-18.2%

4-06.8%

1-06.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Cambrian	Ammanford	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1519	1394	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	27	-98	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1497	1510	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Cambrian	0.64	1.27	0.73	1.36
Ammanford	0.18	0.45	1.36	1.45

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Cambrian	0%	9%	9%	36%	46%
Ammanford	0%	0%	36%	18%	46%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.20 Cambrian at home, 5 matches

0.33 Ammanford away, 6 matches

13d Days of rest for Cambrian

13d Days of rest for Ammanford

— Manager of Cambrian

— Manager of Ammanford

1 Matches for Cambrian in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Ammanford in the last 14 days

13 Points for Cambrian behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

28 Points for Ammanford behind the leaders, and -2 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Cambrian, the right bar represents Ammanford.

On the ball

20 matches

4.64

corners

2.6

8.5

fouls

10.0

2.33

yellow cards

1.83

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Cambrian	WLWWDDLWWD	1.80	2.00–2.10	1W
Ammanford	LLDLLLDLLD	0.30	0.60–2.90	2L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Cambrian	3	4	4	0	0
Ammanford	1	2	8	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Cambrian

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Ammanford

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.