Haverfordwest

Haverfordwest

VS Scheduled Friday 9 Oct 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 13

Caernarfon

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Colwyn Bay1–0Haverfordwest
2026-09-18	26/27	Haverfordwest1–0Holywell
2026-09-11	26/27	Haverfordwest3–1Briton Ferry
2026-09-04	26/27	Connah's Quay1–1Haverfordwest
2026-08-31	26/27	Haverfordwest2–1Trefelin
2026-08-28	26/27	Llandudno2–0Haverfordwest
2026-08-21	26/27	Haverfordwest0–3Cambrian
2026-08-14	26/27	Haverfordwest0–3Penybont

Caernarfon

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Llandudno1–1Caernarfon
2026-09-11	26/27	Ammanford0–5Caernarfon
2026-09-04	26/27	Caernarfon3–0Flint Town Utd
2026-08-31	26/27	Caernarfon2–3TNS
2026-08-28	26/27	Holywell3–5Caernarfon
2026-08-21	26/27	Trefelin0–2Caernarfon

Haverfordwest Caernarfon

Wins

38%

62%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

75%

Both teams scored

38%

62%

Clean sheets

12%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Haverfordwest

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
11	Haverfordwest		TNS	1
11	Haverfordwest	0–3	Penybont	2	30′ Away
11	Haverfordwest		Connah's Quay	3
11	Haverfordwest		Caernarfon	4
11	Haverfordwest		Colwyn Bay	5
11	Haverfordwest		Barry Town	6
11	Haverfordwest	0–3	Cambrian	7	53′ Away
11	Haverfordwest		Llandudno	8
11	Haverfordwest		Cardiff MU	9
11	Haverfordwest	0–1	Airbus	10	85′ Away
11 · Haverfordwest
11	Haverfordwest	3–1	Briton Ferry	12	59′ Away
11	Haverfordwest		Flint Town Utd	13
11	Haverfordwest	2–1	Trefelin	14	58′ Home
11	Haverfordwest		Ammanford	15
11	Haverfordwest	1–0	Holywell	16	23′ Home

Caernarfon

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Caernarfon	4
2	Penybont		Caernarfon	4
3	Connah's Quay	1–2	Caernarfon	4	26′ Home
4 · Caernarfon
5	Colwyn Bay		Caernarfon	4
6	Barry Town		Caernarfon	4
7	Cambrian		Caernarfon	4
8	Llandudno	1–1	Caernarfon	4	18′ Away
9	Cardiff MU	2–2	Caernarfon	4	12′ Home
10	Airbus		Caernarfon	4
11	Haverfordwest		Caernarfon	4
12	Briton Ferry		Caernarfon	4
13	Flint Town Utd		Caernarfon	4
14	Trefelin	0–2	Caernarfon	4	8′ Away
15	Ammanford	0–5	Caernarfon	4	22′ Away
16	Holywell	3–5	Caernarfon	4	12′ Away

Haverfordwest Home Caernarfon Away

Wins

50%

67%

Over 1.5

67%

100%

Over 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

17%

50%

Both teams scored

33%

67%

Clean sheets

17%

33%

Scores first

33%

67%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Haverfordwest

10 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away4 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	1.50	0.25	1.00
Draws	0.0%	25.0%	10.0%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.25	0.70
Goals conceded / match	1.50	1.50	1.50
Total goals / match	2.50	1.75	2.20
Failed to score	50.0%	75.0%	60.0%
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	100.0%	60.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 4	25%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	1	1
31–45	0	1
46–60	2	2
61–75	1	1
76–90	2	4

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Caernarfon

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.80	2.33	2.09
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	3.60	2.83	3.18
Goals conceded / match	1.20	1.17	1.18
Total goals / match	4.80	4.00	4.36
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 4	100%
Scores first → wins	3 of 4	75%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 6/6 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	1
16–30	2	1
31–45	4	1
46–60	2	2
61–75	3	2
76–90	4	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Haverfordwest	Draw	Caernarfon	How it works
Strength (Elo)	34.4%	16.6%	49.0%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	5.6%	10.6%	74.1%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.74–3.12 Model expected goals

64.3% Probability of over 2.5 goals

44.7% Both teams to score

0-3 Most likely score, at 10.7%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-310.7%

0-210.3%

0-48.4%

1-37.9%

1-27.6%

0-16.6%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Haverfordwest	Caernarfon	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1457	1579	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-31	67	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1493	1494	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Haverfordwest	0.10	0.60	0.30	1.20
Caernarfon	1.36	1.82	0.73	0.45

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Haverfordwest	0%	30%	30%	30%	10%
Caernarfon	0%	0%	18%	36%	46%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.50 Haverfordwest at home, 6 matches

2.33 Caernarfon away, 6 matches

13d Days of rest for Haverfordwest

13d Days of rest for Caernarfon

— Manager of Haverfordwest

— Manager of Caernarfon

1 Matches for Haverfordwest in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Caernarfon in the last 14 days

21 Points for Haverfordwest behind the leaders, and 5 above the relegation zone

8 Points for Caernarfon behind the leaders, and 18 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Haverfordwest, the right bar represents Caernarfon.

On the ball

20 matches

2.5

corners

6.67

4.0

fouls

6.0

2.0

yellow cards

3.17

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Haverfordwest	LWWDWLLLLL	1.00	0.70–1.50	1L
Caernarfon	DWDWWLWWWL	2.00	3.30–1.20	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Haverfordwest	1	7	2	0	0
Caernarfon	7	0	4	1	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Haverfordwest

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Caernarfon

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.