Cardiff MU

VS Scheduled Friday 9 Oct 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 13

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon
2026-09-18	26/27	Connah's Quay1–0Cardiff MU
2026-09-11	26/27	Flint Town Utd1–1Cardiff MU
2026-09-04	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Cambrian
2026-08-31	26/27	Ammanford0–5Cardiff MU
2026-08-28	26/27	Cardiff MU3–0Briton Ferry
2026-08-21	26/27	Cardiff MU0–5TNS
2026-08-15	26/27	Barry Town1–0Cardiff MU

Trefelin

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Trefelin1–3TNS
2026-09-18	26/27	Briton Ferry1–1Trefelin
2026-09-15	26/27	Trefelin0–4Cambrian
2026-09-11	26/27	Trefelin0–1Penybont
2026-09-04	26/27	Holywell1–1Trefelin
2026-08-31	26/27	Haverfordwest2–1Trefelin
2026-08-28	26/27	Trefelin1–1Ammanford
2026-08-21	26/27	Trefelin0–2Caernarfon

Cardiff MU Trefelin

Wins

25%

0%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

38%

Both teams scored

38%

62%

Clean sheets

25%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Cardiff MU

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
9	Cardiff MU	0–5	TNS	1	45+6′ Away
9	Cardiff MU		Penybont	2
9	Cardiff MU		Connah's Quay	3
9	Cardiff MU	2–2	Caernarfon	4	12′ Home
9	Cardiff MU		Colwyn Bay	5
9	Cardiff MU		Barry Town	6
9	Cardiff MU	2–2	Cambrian	7	45+1′ Home
9	Cardiff MU		Llandudno	8
9 · Cardiff MU
9	Cardiff MU		Airbus	10
9	Cardiff MU		Haverfordwest	11
9	Cardiff MU	3–0	Briton Ferry	12	16′ Home
9	Cardiff MU		Flint Town Utd	13
9	Cardiff MU		Trefelin	14
9	Cardiff MU		Ammanford	15
9	Cardiff MU	6–1	Holywell	16	8′ Home

Trefelin

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Trefelin	14
2	Penybont		Trefelin	14
3	Connah's Quay	6–0	Trefelin	14	14′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Trefelin	14
5	Colwyn Bay	2–0	Trefelin	14	2′ Home
6	Barry Town		Trefelin	14
7	Cambrian		Trefelin	14
8	Llandudno		Trefelin	14
9	Cardiff MU		Trefelin	14
10	Airbus		Trefelin	14
11	Haverfordwest	2–1	Trefelin	14	58′ Home
12	Briton Ferry	1–1	Trefelin	14	44′ Home
13	Flint Town Utd		Trefelin	14
14 · Trefelin
15	Ammanford		Trefelin	14
16	Holywell	1–1	Trefelin	14	60′ Away

Cardiff MU Home Trefelin Away

Wins

40%

0%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

100%

40%

Over 3.5

80%

20%

Both teams scored

60%

Clean sheets

20%

0%

Scores first

80%

20%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Cardiff MU

10 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away5 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	1.60	1.40	1.50
Draws	40.0%	20.0%	30.0%
Goals scored / match	2.60	1.60	2.10
Goals conceded / match	2.00	0.60	1.30
Total goals / match	4.60	2.20	3.40
Failed to score	20.0%	40.0%	30.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	80.0%	40.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 4	100%
Scores first → wins	2 of 4	50%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	3	0
16–30	2	0
31–45	1	1
46–60	1	3
61–75	3	2
76–90	3	4

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Trefelin

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	0.17	0.40	0.27
Draws	16.7%	40.0%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	0.33	0.60	0.45
Goals conceded / match	2.50	2.40	2.45
Total goals / match	2.83	3.00	2.91
Failed to score	66.7%	40.0%	54.5%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	60.0%	54.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 4	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	2
16–30	0	1
31–45	0	2
46–60	1	4
61–75	1	0
76–90	1	3

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Cardiff MU	Draw	Trefelin	How it works
Strength (Elo)	65.8%	12.1%	22.2%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	76.0%	11.9%	5.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

2.80–0.61 Model expected goals

59.7% Probability of over 2.5 goals

40.0% Both teams to score

2-0 Most likely score, at 12.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

2-012.9%

3-012.1%

1-09.3%

4-08.4%

2-17.9%

3-17.4%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Cardiff MU	Trefelin	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1526	1397	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	9	-91	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1511	1495	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Cardiff MU	0.90	1.20	0.20	1.10
Trefelin	0.09	0.36	1.36	1.09

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Cardiff MU	0%	20%	20%	10%	50%
Trefelin	0%	9%	46%	9%	36%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.60 Cardiff MU at home, 5 matches

0.40 Trefelin away, 5 matches

13d Days of rest for Cardiff MU

13d Days of rest for Trefelin

— Manager of Cardiff MU

— Manager of Trefelin

1 Matches for Cardiff MU in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Trefelin in the last 14 days

16 Points for Cardiff MU behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone

28 Points for Trefelin behind the leaders, and -2 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Cardiff MU, the right bar represents Trefelin.

On the ball

20 matches

5.22

corners

3.36

6.17

fouls

12.5

2.0

yellow cards

2.2

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Cardiff MU	DLDDWWLLWW	1.50	2.10–1.30	1D
Trefelin	LDLLDLDLLL	0.30	0.50–2.50	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Cardiff MU	6	2	2	0	2
Trefelin	0	3	8	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Cardiff MU

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Trefelin

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.