Colwyn Bay

Colwyn Bay

VS Scheduled Friday 23 Oct 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 14

Cardiff MU

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Colwyn Bay1–0Haverfordwest
2026-09-18	26/27	Colwyn Bay5–2Barry Town
2026-09-15	26/27	Holywell0–5Colwyn Bay
2026-09-12	26/27	Colwyn Bay2–1Connah's Quay
2026-09-05	26/27	Penybont1–0Colwyn Bay
2026-08-31	26/27	Colwyn Bay2–0Llandudno
2026-08-28	26/27	TNS5–1Colwyn Bay
2026-08-21	26/27	Colwyn Bay1–0Airbus

Cardiff MU

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon
2026-09-18	26/27	Connah's Quay1–0Cardiff MU
2026-09-11	26/27	Flint Town Utd1–1Cardiff MU
2026-09-04	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Cambrian
2026-08-31	26/27	Ammanford0–5Cardiff MU
2026-08-28	26/27	Cardiff MU3–0Briton Ferry
2026-08-21	26/27	Cardiff MU0–5TNS
2026-08-15	26/27	Barry Town1–0Cardiff MU

Colwyn Bay Cardiff MU

Wins

75%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

62%

Both teams scored

38%

Clean sheets

50%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Colwyn Bay

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
5	Colwyn Bay		TNS	1
5	Colwyn Bay		Penybont	2
5	Colwyn Bay	2–1	Connah's Quay	3	10′ Away
5	Colwyn Bay		Caernarfon	4
5 · Colwyn Bay
5	Colwyn Bay	5–2	Barry Town	6	29′ Away
5	Colwyn Bay		Cambrian	7
5	Colwyn Bay	2–0	Llandudno	8	39′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay		Cardiff MU	9
5	Colwyn Bay	1–0	Airbus	10	39′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay	1–0	Haverfordwest	11	90+3′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay		Briton Ferry	12
5	Colwyn Bay		Flint Town Utd	13
5	Colwyn Bay	2–0	Trefelin	14	2′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay		Ammanford	15
5	Colwyn Bay		Holywell	16

Cardiff MU

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Cardiff MU	9
2	Penybont		Cardiff MU	9
3	Connah's Quay	1–0	Cardiff MU	9	70′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Cardiff MU	9
5	Colwyn Bay		Cardiff MU	9
6	Barry Town	1–0	Cardiff MU	9	80′ Home
7	Cambrian		Cardiff MU	9
8	Llandudno		Cardiff MU	9
9 · Cardiff MU
10	Airbus	0–2	Cardiff MU	9	22′ Away
11	Haverfordwest		Cardiff MU	9
12	Briton Ferry		Cardiff MU	9
13	Flint Town Utd	1–1	Cardiff MU	9	3′ Home
14	Trefelin		Cardiff MU	9
15	Ammanford	0–5	Cardiff MU	9	8′ Away
16	Holywell		Cardiff MU	9

Colwyn Bay Home Cardiff MU Away

Wins

100%

40%

Over 1.5

67%

60%

Over 2.5

33%

20%

Over 3.5

17%

20%

Both teams scored

33%

20%

Clean sheets

67%

40%

Scores first

67%

40%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Colwyn Bay

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	3.00	0.80	2.00
Draws	0.0%	20.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.17	1.60	1.91
Goals conceded / match	0.50	2.20	1.27
Total goals / match	2.67	3.80	3.18
Failed to score	0.0%	40.0%	18.2%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	20.0%	45.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 4	75%
Scores first → wins	4 of 4	100%
Concedes first → wins	2 of 2	100%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	0	1
31–45	4	1
46–60	3	0
61–75	3	0
76–90	2	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Cardiff MU

10 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away5 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	1.60	1.40	1.50
Draws	40.0%	20.0%	30.0%
Goals scored / match	2.60	1.60	2.10
Goals conceded / match	2.00	0.60	1.30
Total goals / match	4.60	2.20	3.40
Failed to score	20.0%	40.0%	30.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	80.0%	40.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 2	100%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	1	0
31–45	1	0
46–60	1	0
61–75	2	1
76–90	2	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Colwyn Bay	Draw	Cardiff MU	How it works
Strength (Elo)	52.0%	16.0%	31.9%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	29.5%	23.4%	45.9%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.35–1.74 Model expected goals

58.6% Probability of over 2.5 goals

60.3% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 10.7%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-110.7%

1-29.3%

0-17.9%

2-17.2%

0-26.9%

2-26.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Colwyn Bay	Cardiff MU	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1550	1526	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	38	9	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1510	1511	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Colwyn Bay	1.09	0.82	0.73	0.55
Cardiff MU	0.90	1.20	0.20	1.10

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Colwyn Bay	0%	27%	18%	18%	36%
Cardiff MU	0%	20%	20%	10%	50%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

3.00 Colwyn Bay at home, 6 matches

1.40 Cardiff MU away, 5 matches

27d Days of rest for Colwyn Bay

27d Days of rest for Cardiff MU

— Manager of Colwyn Bay

— Manager of Cardiff MU

0 Matches for Colwyn Bay in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Cardiff MU in the last 14 days

9 Points for Colwyn Bay behind the leaders, and 17 above the relegation zone

16 Points for Cardiff MU behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Colwyn Bay, the right bar represents Cardiff MU.

On the ball

20 matches

4.9

corners

5.22

10.0

fouls

6.17

3.33

yellow cards

2.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Colwyn Bay	WWWWLWLWLD	1.90	1.90–1.40	4W
Cardiff MU	DLDDWWLLWW	1.50	2.10–1.30	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Colwyn Bay	5	1	5	2	1
Cardiff MU	6	2	2	0	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Colwyn Bay

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Cardiff MU

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.