Caernarfon

Caernarfon

VS Scheduled Friday 23 Oct 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 14

Briton Ferry

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Llandudno1–1Caernarfon
2026-09-11	26/27	Ammanford0–5Caernarfon
2026-09-04	26/27	Caernarfon3–0Flint Town Utd
2026-08-31	26/27	Caernarfon2–3TNS
2026-08-28	26/27	Holywell3–5Caernarfon
2026-08-21	26/27	Trefelin0–2Caernarfon

Briton Ferry

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Holywell1–1Briton Ferry
2026-09-18	26/27	Briton Ferry1–1Trefelin
2026-09-15	26/27	Penybont3–2Briton Ferry
2026-09-11	26/27	Haverfordwest3–1Briton Ferry
2026-09-04	26/27	Briton Ferry0–2Airbus
2026-08-31	26/27	Briton Ferry1–4Barry Town
2026-08-28	26/27	Cardiff MU3–0Briton Ferry
2026-08-21	26/27	Flint Town Utd0–1Briton Ferry

Caernarfon Briton Ferry

Wins

62%

12%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

50%

Both teams scored

62%

Clean sheets

38%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Caernarfon

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
4	Caernarfon	2–3	TNS	1	14′ Away
4	Caernarfon	1–2	Penybont	2	5′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Connah's Quay	3
4 · Caernarfon
4	Caernarfon	3–0	Colwyn Bay	5	27′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Barry Town	6
4	Caernarfon	9–1	Cambrian	7	16′ Away
4	Caernarfon		Llandudno	8
4	Caernarfon		Cardiff MU	9
4	Caernarfon		Airbus	10
4	Caernarfon		Haverfordwest	11
4	Caernarfon		Briton Ferry	12
4	Caernarfon	3–0	Flint Town Utd	13	45′ Home
4	Caernarfon		Trefelin	14
4	Caernarfon		Ammanford	15
4	Caernarfon		Holywell	16

Briton Ferry

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS	1–0	Briton Ferry	12	61′ Home
2	Penybont	3–2	Briton Ferry	12	9′ Away
3	Connah's Quay		Briton Ferry	12
4	Caernarfon		Briton Ferry	12
5	Colwyn Bay		Briton Ferry	12
6	Barry Town		Briton Ferry	12
7	Cambrian	1–1	Briton Ferry	12	31′ Away
8	Llandudno		Briton Ferry	12
9	Cardiff MU	3–0	Briton Ferry	12	16′ Home
10	Airbus		Briton Ferry	12
11	Haverfordwest	3–1	Briton Ferry	12	59′ Away
12 · Briton Ferry
13	Flint Town Utd	0–1	Briton Ferry	12	—
14	Trefelin		Briton Ferry	12
15	Ammanford		Briton Ferry	12
16	Holywell	1–1	Briton Ferry	12	30′ Home

Caernarfon Home Briton Ferry Away

Wins

60%

14%

Over 1.5

100%

71%

Over 2.5

100%

43%

Over 3.5

40%

29%

Both teams scored

60%

57%

Clean sheets

40%

14%

Scores first

60%

57%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Caernarfon

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.80	2.33	2.09
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	3.60	2.83	3.18
Goals conceded / match	1.20	1.17	1.18
Total goals / match	4.80	4.00	4.36
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 3	67%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	3	3
31–45	3	1
46–60	3	0
61–75	6	1
76–90	2	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Briton Ferry

11 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away7 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.00	0.71	0.82
Draws	25.0%	28.6%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.86	0.91
Goals conceded / match	2.00	1.71	1.82
Total goals / match	3.00	2.57	2.73
Failed to score	25.0%	28.6%	27.3%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	57.1%	54.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 4	50%
Scores first → wins	1 of 4	25%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 7/7 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Caernarfon	Draw	Briton Ferry	How it works
Strength (Elo)	66.9%	11.7%	21.4%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	74.7%	10.2%	5.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

3.15–0.70 Model expected goals

63.9% Probability of over 2.5 goals

43.3% Both teams to score

3-0 Most likely score, at 11.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

3-011.1%

2-010.5%

4-08.7%

3-17.8%

2-17.4%

1-06.7%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Caernarfon	Briton Ferry	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1579	1441	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	67	-67	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1494	1483	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Caernarfon	1.36	1.82	0.73	0.45
Briton Ferry	0.45	0.45	0.82	1.00

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Caernarfon	0%	0%	18%	36%	46%
Briton Ferry	0%	18%	36%	18%	27%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.80 Caernarfon at home, 5 matches

0.71 Briton Ferry away, 7 matches

27d Days of rest for Caernarfon

27d Days of rest for Briton Ferry

— Manager of Caernarfon

— Manager of Briton Ferry

0 Matches for Caernarfon in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Briton Ferry in the last 14 days

8 Points for Caernarfon behind the leaders, and 18 above the relegation zone

22 Points for Briton Ferry behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Caernarfon, the right bar represents Briton Ferry.

On the ball

20 matches

6.67

corners

5.18

6.0

fouls

10.5

3.17

yellow cards

2.29

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Caernarfon	DWDWWLWWWL	2.00	3.30–1.20	1D
Briton Ferry	DDLLLLLWLD	0.60	0.80–1.90	2D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Caernarfon	7	0	4	1	1
Briton Ferry	3	3	5	0	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Caernarfon

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Briton Ferry

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.