Colwyn Bay

Colwyn Bay

VS Scheduled Friday 30 Oct 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 15

Cambrian

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Colwyn Bay1–0Haverfordwest
2026-09-18	26/27	Colwyn Bay5–2Barry Town
2026-09-15	26/27	Holywell0–5Colwyn Bay
2026-09-12	26/27	Colwyn Bay2–1Connah's Quay
2026-09-05	26/27	Penybont1–0Colwyn Bay
2026-08-31	26/27	Colwyn Bay2–0Llandudno
2026-08-28	26/27	TNS5–1Colwyn Bay
2026-08-21	26/27	Colwyn Bay1–0Airbus

Cambrian

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cambrian4–3Llandudno
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Trefelin0–4Cambrian
2026-09-11	26/27	Cambrian2–1Holywell
2026-09-04	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Cambrian
2026-08-31	26/27	Cambrian2–2Penybont
2026-08-28	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Cambrian
2026-08-21	26/27	Haverfordwest0–3Cambrian

Colwyn Bay Cambrian

Wins

75%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

100%

Both teams scored

38%

62%

Clean sheets

50%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Colwyn Bay

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
5	Colwyn Bay		TNS	1
5	Colwyn Bay		Penybont	2
5	Colwyn Bay	2–1	Connah's Quay	3	10′ Away
5	Colwyn Bay		Caernarfon	4
5 · Colwyn Bay
5	Colwyn Bay	5–2	Barry Town	6	29′ Away
5	Colwyn Bay		Cambrian	7
5	Colwyn Bay	2–0	Llandudno	8	39′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay		Cardiff MU	9
5	Colwyn Bay	1–0	Airbus	10	39′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay	1–0	Haverfordwest	11	90+3′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay		Briton Ferry	12
5	Colwyn Bay		Flint Town Utd	13
5	Colwyn Bay	2–0	Trefelin	14	2′ Home
5	Colwyn Bay		Ammanford	15
5	Colwyn Bay		Holywell	16

Cambrian

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Cambrian	7
2	Penybont		Cambrian	7
3	Connah's Quay	3–0	Cambrian	7	2′ Home
4	Caernarfon	9–1	Cambrian	7	16′ Away
5	Colwyn Bay		Cambrian	7
6	Barry Town	2–1	Cambrian	7	50′ Home
7 · Cambrian
8	Llandudno		Cambrian	7
9	Cardiff MU	2–2	Cambrian	7	45+1′ Home
10	Airbus		Cambrian	7
11	Haverfordwest	0–3	Cambrian	7	53′ Away
12	Briton Ferry		Cambrian	7
13	Flint Town Utd		Cambrian	7
14	Trefelin	0–4	Cambrian	7	26′ Away
15	Ammanford		Cambrian	7
16	Holywell		Cambrian	7

Colwyn Bay Home Cambrian Away

Wins

100%

33%

Over 1.5

67%

100%

Over 2.5

33%

100%

Over 3.5

17%

50%

Both teams scored

33%

50%

Clean sheets

67%

33%

Scores first

67%

50%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Colwyn Bay

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	3.00	0.80	2.00
Draws	0.0%	20.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.17	1.60	1.91
Goals conceded / match	0.50	2.20	1.27
Total goals / match	2.67	3.80	3.18
Failed to score	0.0%	40.0%	18.2%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	20.0%	45.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 4	75%
Scores first → wins	4 of 4	100%
Concedes first → wins	2 of 2	100%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	0	1
31–45	4	1
46–60	3	0
61–75	3	0
76–90	2	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Cambrian

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.20	1.17	1.64
Draws	40.0%	16.7%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.83	1.91
Goals conceded / match	1.40	2.67	2.09
Total goals / match	3.40	4.50	4.00
Failed to score	0.0%	16.7%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	0.0%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 3	33%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 6/6 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	2	2
31–45	0	3
46–60	3	3
61–75	3	3
76–90	3	4

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Colwyn Bay	Draw	Cambrian	How it works
Strength (Elo)	52.9%	15.9%	31.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	48.8%	20.6%	27.7%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

2.17–1.59 Model expected goals

69.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals

68.1% Both teams to score

2-1 Most likely score, at 8.7%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

2-18.7%

1-18.0%

2-26.9%

1-26.4%

3-16.3%

2-05.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Colwyn Bay	Cambrian	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1550	1519	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	38	27	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1510	1497	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Colwyn Bay	1.09	0.82	0.73	0.55
Cambrian	0.64	1.27	0.73	1.36

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Colwyn Bay	0%	27%	18%	18%	36%
Cambrian	0%	9%	9%	36%	46%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

3.00 Colwyn Bay at home, 6 matches

1.17 Cambrian away, 6 matches

34d Days of rest for Colwyn Bay

34d Days of rest for Cambrian

— Manager of Colwyn Bay

— Manager of Cambrian

0 Matches for Colwyn Bay in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Cambrian in the last 14 days

9 Points for Colwyn Bay behind the leaders, and 17 above the relegation zone

13 Points for Cambrian behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Colwyn Bay, the right bar represents Cambrian.

On the ball

20 matches

4.9

corners

4.64

10.0

fouls

8.5

3.33

yellow cards

2.33

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Colwyn Bay	WWWWLWLWLD	1.90	1.90–1.40	4W
Cambrian	WLWWDDLWWD	1.80	2.00–2.10	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Colwyn Bay	5	1	5	2	1
Cambrian	3	4	4	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Colwyn Bay

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Cambrian

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.