Airbus

Airbus

VS Scheduled Friday 30 Oct 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 15

Caernarfon

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Penybont2–1Airbus
2026-09-18	26/27	Airbus4–1Flint Town Utd
2026-09-15	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Airbus
2026-09-11	26/27	Airbus0–2TNS
2026-09-04	26/27	Briton Ferry0–2Airbus
2026-08-31	26/27	Airbus6–2Holywell
2026-08-28	26/27	Barry Town4–2Airbus
2026-08-21	26/27	Colwyn Bay1–0Airbus

Caernarfon

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Llandudno1–1Caernarfon
2026-09-11	26/27	Ammanford0–5Caernarfon
2026-09-04	26/27	Caernarfon3–0Flint Town Utd
2026-08-31	26/27	Caernarfon2–3TNS
2026-08-28	26/27	Holywell3–5Caernarfon
2026-08-21	26/27	Trefelin0–2Caernarfon

Airbus Caernarfon

Wins

38%

62%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

75%

Both teams scored

50%

62%

Clean sheets

12%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Airbus

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
10	Airbus	0–2	TNS	1	30′ Away
10	Airbus		Penybont	2
10	Airbus		Connah's Quay	3
10	Airbus		Caernarfon	4
10	Airbus		Colwyn Bay	5
10	Airbus		Barry Town	6
10	Airbus		Cambrian	7
10	Airbus		Llandudno	8
10	Airbus	0–2	Cardiff MU	9	22′ Away
10 · Airbus
10	Airbus		Haverfordwest	11
10	Airbus		Briton Ferry	12
10	Airbus	4–1	Flint Town Utd	13	2′ Home
10	Airbus		Trefelin	14
10	Airbus	2–0	Ammanford	15	—
10	Airbus	6–2	Holywell	16	15′ Home

Caernarfon

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Caernarfon	4
2	Penybont		Caernarfon	4
3	Connah's Quay	1–2	Caernarfon	4	26′ Home
4 · Caernarfon
5	Colwyn Bay		Caernarfon	4
6	Barry Town		Caernarfon	4
7	Cambrian		Caernarfon	4
8	Llandudno	1–1	Caernarfon	4	18′ Away
9	Cardiff MU	2–2	Caernarfon	4	12′ Home
10	Airbus		Caernarfon	4
11	Haverfordwest		Caernarfon	4
12	Briton Ferry		Caernarfon	4
13	Flint Town Utd		Caernarfon	4
14	Trefelin	0–2	Caernarfon	4	8′ Away
15	Ammanford	0–5	Caernarfon	4	22′ Away
16	Holywell	3–5	Caernarfon	4	12′ Away

Airbus Home Caernarfon Away

Wins

60%

67%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

40%

67%

Over 3.5

40%

50%

Both teams scored

40%

67%

Clean sheets

20%

33%

Scores first

60%

67%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Airbus

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.80	1.00	1.36
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	2.40	1.00	1.64
Goals conceded / match	1.40	1.67	1.55
Total goals / match	3.80	2.67	3.18
Failed to score	40.0%	33.3%	36.4%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	50.0%	54.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 3	100%
Scores first → wins	3 of 3	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Caernarfon

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.80	2.33	2.09
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	3.60	2.83	3.18
Goals conceded / match	1.20	1.17	1.18
Total goals / match	4.80	4.00	4.36
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 4	100%
Scores first → wins	3 of 4	75%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 6/6 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	1
16–30	2	1
31–45	4	1
46–60	2	2
61–75	3	2
76–90	4	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Airbus	Draw	Caernarfon	How it works
Strength (Elo)	38.6%	17.1%	44.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	8.6%	12.0%	68.5%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.05–3.22 Model expected goals

69.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals

55.4% Both teams to score

1-3 Most likely score, at 8.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-38.2%

0-37.8%

1-27.6%

0-27.2%

1-46.6%

0-46.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Airbus	Caernarfon	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1495	1579	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-17	67	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1508	1494	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Airbus	0.82	0.82	0.55	1.00
Caernarfon	1.36	1.82	0.73	0.45

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Airbus	0%	18%	36%	18%	27%
Caernarfon	0%	0%	18%	36%	46%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.80 Airbus at home, 5 matches

2.33 Caernarfon away, 6 matches

34d Days of rest for Airbus

34d Days of rest for Caernarfon

— Manager of Airbus

— Manager of Caernarfon

0 Matches for Airbus in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Caernarfon in the last 14 days

16 Points for Airbus behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone

8 Points for Caernarfon behind the leaders, and 18 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Airbus, the right bar represents Caernarfon.

On the ball

20 matches

3.67

corners

6.67

9.0

fouls

6.0

2.0

yellow cards

3.17

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Airbus	LWLLWWLLWL	1.20	1.70–1.70	1L
Caernarfon	DWDWWLWWWL	2.00	3.30–1.20	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Airbus	5	2	4	0	1
Caernarfon	7	0	4	1	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Airbus

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Caernarfon

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.