Head-to-head overview
1 meetings- CaernarfonWins
- 1
- Draws0.0% of meetings
- 0
- Connah's QuayWins
- 0
- Goals per match
- 3.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 100.0%
- Both teams scored
- 100.0%
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay1–2Caernarfon |
Recent matches
Caernarfon
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 |
26/27
|
Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon |
| 2026-09-18 |
26/27
|
Caernarfon9–1Cambrian |
| 2026-09-15 |
26/27
|
Llandudno1–1Caernarfon |
| 2026-09-11 |
26/27
|
Ammanford0–5Caernarfon |
| 2026-09-04 |
26/27
|
Caernarfon3–0Flint Town Utd |
| 2026-08-31 |
26/27
|
Caernarfon2–3TNS |
| 2026-08-28 |
26/27
|
Holywell3–5Caernarfon |
| 2026-08-21 |
26/27
|
Trefelin0–2Caernarfon |
Connah's Quay
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 |
26/27
|
Barry Town1–4Connah's Quay |
| 2026-09-18 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay1–0Cardiff MU |
| 2026-09-15 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay3–0Airbus |
| 2026-09-12 |
26/27
|
Colwyn Bay2–1Connah's Quay |
| 2026-09-04 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay1–1Haverfordwest |
| 2026-08-31 |
26/27
|
Flint Town Utd1–2Connah's Quay |
| 2026-08-28 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay3–0Cambrian |
| 2026-08-22 |
26/27
|
Ammanford0–2Connah's Quay |
Caernarfon
Connah's Quay
Wins
62%
75%
Over 2.5 goals
75%
62%
Both teams scored
62%
50%
Clean sheets
38%
50%
Home & away results
This season · 26/27
Caernarfon
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caernarfon | 2–3 | TNS | 1 | 14′ Away |
| 4 | Caernarfon | 1–2 | Penybont | 2 | 5′ Home |
| 4 | Caernarfon | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 4 · Caernarfon | |||||
| 4 | Caernarfon | 3–0 | Colwyn Bay | 5 | 27′ Home |
| 4 | Caernarfon | Barry Town | 6 | ||
| 4 | Caernarfon | 9–1 | Cambrian | 7 | 16′ Away |
| 4 | Caernarfon | Llandudno | 8 | ||
| 4 | Caernarfon | Cardiff MU | 9 | ||
| 4 | Caernarfon | Airbus | 10 | ||
| 4 | Caernarfon | Haverfordwest | 11 | ||
| 4 | Caernarfon | Briton Ferry | 12 | ||
| 4 | Caernarfon | 3–0 | Flint Town Utd | 13 | 45′ Home |
| 4 | Caernarfon | Trefelin | 14 | ||
| 4 | Caernarfon | Ammanford | 15 | ||
| 4 | Caernarfon | Holywell | 16 | ||
Connah's Quay
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TNS | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 2 | Penybont | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 3 · Connah's Quay | |||||
| 4 | Caernarfon | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 2–1 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 10′ Away |
| 6 | Barry Town | 1–4 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 19′ Away |
| 7 | Cambrian | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 8 | Llandudno | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 10 | Airbus | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 11 | Haverfordwest | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 12 | Briton Ferry | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 1–2 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 10′ Away |
| 14 | Trefelin | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 15 | Ammanford | 0–2 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 43′ Away |
| 16 | Holywell | 1–3 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 28′ Away |
Caernarfon Home
Connah's Quay Away
Wins
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
Both teams scored
Clean sheets
Scores first
Season analysis
Home, away & overall
Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.
Caernarfon
| Goals & results | Home5 matches | Away6 matches | Overall11 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 1.80 | 2.33 | 2.09 |
| Draws | 0.0% | 33.3% | 18.2% |
| Goals scored / match | 3.60 | 2.83 | 3.18 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| Total goals / match | 4.80 | 4.00 | 4.36 |
| Failed to score | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 33.3% | 18.2% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 2 of 36 of 7 | 67%86% |
| Scores first → wins | 2 of 35 of 7 | 67%71% |
| Concedes first → wins | 1 of 22 of 4 | 50%50% |
Scoring order known: 5/5 home.Scoring order known: 11/11 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Home matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 1 | 1 |
| 16–30 | 3 | 3 |
| 31–45 | 3 | 1 |
| 46–60 | 3 | 0 |
| 61–75 | 6 | 1 |
| 76–90 | 2 | 0 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Connah's Quay
| Goals & results | Home6 matches | Away5 matches | Overall11 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 2.17 | 2.40 | 2.27 |
| Draws | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Goals scored / match | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.45 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| Total goals / match | 3.00 | 3.40 | 3.18 |
| Failed to score | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 20.0% | 27.3% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 5 of 58 of 10 | 100%80% |
| Scores first → wins | 4 of 58 of 10 | 80%80% |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 00 of 1 | —0% |
Scoring order known: 5/5 away.Scoring order known: 11/11 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Away matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 2 | 0 |
| 16–30 | 3 | 0 |
| 31–45 | 4 | 1 |
| 46–60 | 1 | 1 |
| 61–75 | 1 | 2 |
| 76–90 | 1 | 1 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Two perspectives
What each model says about this match
The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.
| Model | Caernarfon | Draw | Connah's Quay | How it works |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 48.0% | 16.8% | 35.2% | Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage |
| Goals (Poisson) | 25.5% | 22.4% | 50.6% | Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average |
1.27–1.89
Model expected goals
59.7%
Probability of over 2.5 goals
60.0%
Both teams to score
1-1
Most likely score, at 10.2%
Most likely scores
1-110.2%
1-29.6%
0-18.0%
0-27.6%
2-16.5%
2-26.1%
Strength and dominance
Team strength and finishing efficiency
Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.
| Measure | Caernarfon | Connah's Quay | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 1579 | 1585 | The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality. |
| Change over the last 10 | 67 | 97 | Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches |
| Opposition strength | 1494 | 1494 | Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule. |
Goals
When teams score and how matches unfold
Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.
Goals by half
| Team | 1H scored | 2H scored | 1H conceded | 2H conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon | 1.36 | 1.82 | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| Connah's Quay | 1.27 | 1.18 | 0.09 | 0.64 |
Total goals
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon | 0% | 0% | 18% | 36% | 46% |
| Connah's Quay | 0% | 9% | 18% | 46% | 27% |
Context
Coming into the match
Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.
1.80
Caernarfon at home, 5 matches
2.40
Connah's Quay away, 5 matches
55d
Days of rest for Caernarfon
55d
Days of rest for Connah's Quay
—
Manager of Caernarfon
—
Manager of Connah's Quay
0
Matches for Caernarfon in the last 14 days
0
Matches for Connah's Quay in the last 14 days
8
Points for Caernarfon behind the leaders, and 18 above the relegation zone
6
Points for Connah's Quay behind the leaders, and 20 above the relegation zone
3.37
League goals per match
17.2%
League draw rate
Statistics
Side-by-side comparison
Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Caernarfon, the right bar represents Connah's Quay.
On the ball
6.67
6.75
corners
6.0
—
fouls
3.17
2.25
yellow cards
Recent form
| Team | Last 10 | PPG | goals | streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon | DWDWWLWWWL | 2.00 | 3.30–1.20 | 1D |
| Connah's Quay | WWWLDWWWWW | 2.50 | 2.60–0.60 | 3W |
At half-time
| Team | ahead | level | behind | comeback wins | lead lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon | 7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Connah's Quay | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Squads
Injuries and suspensions
0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.
Caernarfon
No absences reported.
Connah's Quay
No absences reported.
Newsroom
News about both teams
No recent news linked to these teams.