Barry Town

Barry Town

VS Scheduled Friday 27 Nov 202619:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 18

Caernarfon

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Barry Town1–4Connah's Quay
2026-09-18	26/27	Colwyn Bay5–2Barry Town
2026-09-15	26/27	Barry Town2–2Ammanford
2026-09-11	26/27	Barry Town4–1Llandudno
2026-09-05	26/27	TNS1–0Barry Town
2026-08-31	26/27	Briton Ferry1–4Barry Town
2026-08-28	26/27	Barry Town4–2Airbus
2026-08-21	26/27	Holywell1–3Barry Town

Caernarfon

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Llandudno1–1Caernarfon
2026-09-11	26/27	Ammanford0–5Caernarfon
2026-09-04	26/27	Caernarfon3–0Flint Town Utd
2026-08-31	26/27	Caernarfon2–3TNS
2026-08-28	26/27	Holywell3–5Caernarfon
2026-08-21	26/27	Trefelin0–2Caernarfon

Barry Town Caernarfon

Wins

50%

62%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

75%

Both teams scored

88%

62%

Clean sheets

0%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Barry Town

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
6	Barry Town		TNS	1
6	Barry Town		Penybont	2
6	Barry Town	1–4	Connah's Quay	3	19′ Away
6	Barry Town		Caernarfon	4
6	Barry Town		Colwyn Bay	5
6 · Barry Town
6	Barry Town	2–1	Cambrian	7	50′ Home
6	Barry Town	4–1	Llandudno	8	5′ Home
6	Barry Town	1–0	Cardiff MU	9	80′ Home
6	Barry Town	4–2	Airbus	10	29′ Home
6	Barry Town		Haverfordwest	11
6	Barry Town		Briton Ferry	12
6	Barry Town		Flint Town Utd	13
6	Barry Town		Trefelin	14
6	Barry Town	2–2	Ammanford	15	16′ Home
6	Barry Town		Holywell	16

Caernarfon

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1	TNS		Caernarfon	4
2	Penybont		Caernarfon	4
3	Connah's Quay	1–2	Caernarfon	4	26′ Home
4 · Caernarfon
5	Colwyn Bay		Caernarfon	4
6	Barry Town		Caernarfon	4
7	Cambrian		Caernarfon	4
8	Llandudno	1–1	Caernarfon	4	18′ Away
9	Cardiff MU	2–2	Caernarfon	4	12′ Home
10	Airbus		Caernarfon	4
11	Haverfordwest		Caernarfon	4
12	Briton Ferry		Caernarfon	4
13	Flint Town Utd		Caernarfon	4
14	Trefelin	0–2	Caernarfon	4	8′ Away
15	Ammanford	0–5	Caernarfon	4	22′ Away
16	Holywell	3–5	Caernarfon	4	12′ Away

Barry Town Home Caernarfon Away

Wins

67%

Over 1.5

83%

100%

Over 2.5

83%

67%

Over 3.5

67%

50%

Both teams scored

83%

67%

Clean sheets

17%

33%

Scores first

83%

67%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Barry Town

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.17	1.80	2.00
Draws	16.7%	0.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.33	2.40	2.36
Goals conceded / match	1.67	2.00	1.82
Total goals / match	4.00	4.40	4.18
Failed to score	0.0%	20.0%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	16.7%	20.0%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 5	60%
Scores first → wins	4 of 5	80%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	2	2
31–45	0	1
46–60	4	1
61–75	3	5
76–90	3	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Caernarfon

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.80	2.33	2.09
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	3.60	2.83	3.18
Goals conceded / match	1.20	1.17	1.18
Total goals / match	4.80	4.00	4.36
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	33.3%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 4	100%
Scores first → wins	3 of 4	75%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 6/6 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	1
16–30	2	1
31–45	4	1
46–60	2	2
61–75	3	2
76–90	4	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Barry Town	Draw	Caernarfon	How it works
Strength (Elo)	43.2%	17.2%	39.6%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	10.2%	11.2%	59.9%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.51–3.79 Model expected goals

71.2% Probability of over 2.5 goals

61.6% Both teams to score

1-3 Most likely score, at 6.8%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-36.8%

1-46.5%

1-25.4%

2-35.2%

1-54.9%

2-44.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Barry Town	Caernarfon	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1534	1579	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	25	67	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1508	1494	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Barry Town	0.91	1.45	0.64	1.18
Caernarfon	1.36	1.82	0.73	0.45

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Barry Town	0%	18%	0%	9%	73%
Caernarfon	0%	0%	18%	36%	46%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.17 Barry Town at home, 6 matches

2.33 Caernarfon away, 6 matches

62d Days of rest for Barry Town

62d Days of rest for Caernarfon

— Manager of Barry Town

— Manager of Caernarfon

0 Matches for Barry Town in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Caernarfon in the last 14 days

9 Points for Barry Town behind the leaders, and 17 above the relegation zone

8 Points for Caernarfon behind the leaders, and 18 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Barry Town, the right bar represents Caernarfon.

On the ball

20 matches

5.11

corners

6.67

11.25

fouls

6.0

2.6

yellow cards

3.17

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Barry Town	LLDWLWWWWW	1.90	2.40–1.90	2L
Caernarfon	DWDWWLWWWL	2.00	3.30–1.20	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Barry Town	5	4	2	1	2
Caernarfon	7	0	4	1	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Barry Town

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Caernarfon

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.