Head-to-head overview
1 meetings- Cardiff MUWins
- 0
- Draws0.0% of meetings
- 0
- Connah's QuayWins
- 1
- Goals per match
- 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 0.0%
- Both teams scored
- 0.0%
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay1–0Cardiff MU |
Recent matches
Cardiff MU
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 |
26/27
|
Cardiff MU2–2Caernarfon |
| 2026-09-18 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay1–0Cardiff MU |
| 2026-09-11 |
26/27
|
Flint Town Utd1–1Cardiff MU |
| 2026-09-04 |
26/27
|
Cardiff MU2–2Cambrian |
| 2026-08-31 |
26/27
|
Ammanford0–5Cardiff MU |
| 2026-08-28 |
26/27
|
Cardiff MU3–0Briton Ferry |
| 2026-08-21 |
26/27
|
Cardiff MU0–5TNS |
| 2026-08-15 |
26/27
|
Barry Town1–0Cardiff MU |
Connah's Quay
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 |
26/27
|
Barry Town1–4Connah's Quay |
| 2026-09-18 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay1–0Cardiff MU |
| 2026-09-15 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay3–0Airbus |
| 2026-09-12 |
26/27
|
Colwyn Bay2–1Connah's Quay |
| 2026-09-04 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay1–1Haverfordwest |
| 2026-08-31 |
26/27
|
Flint Town Utd1–2Connah's Quay |
| 2026-08-28 |
26/27
|
Connah's Quay3–0Cambrian |
| 2026-08-22 |
26/27
|
Ammanford0–2Connah's Quay |
Cardiff MU
Connah's Quay
Wins
25%
75%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
62%
Both teams scored
38%
50%
Clean sheets
25%
50%
Home & away results
This season · 26/27
Cardiff MU
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cardiff MU | 0–5 | TNS | 1 | 45+6′ Away |
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Penybont | 2 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | 2–2 | Caernarfon | 4 | 12′ Home |
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Colwyn Bay | 5 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Barry Town | 6 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | 2–2 | Cambrian | 7 | 45+1′ Home |
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Llandudno | 8 | ||
| 9 · Cardiff MU | |||||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Airbus | 10 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Haverfordwest | 11 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | 3–0 | Briton Ferry | 12 | 16′ Home |
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Flint Town Utd | 13 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Trefelin | 14 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Ammanford | 15 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | 6–1 | Holywell | 16 | 8′ Home |
Connah's Quay
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TNS | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 2 | Penybont | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 3 · Connah's Quay | |||||
| 4 | Caernarfon | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 2–1 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 10′ Away |
| 6 | Barry Town | 1–4 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 19′ Away |
| 7 | Cambrian | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 8 | Llandudno | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 9 | Cardiff MU | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 10 | Airbus | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 11 | Haverfordwest | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 12 | Briton Ferry | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 13 | Flint Town Utd | 1–2 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 10′ Away |
| 14 | Trefelin | Connah's Quay | 3 | ||
| 15 | Ammanford | 0–2 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 43′ Away |
| 16 | Holywell | 1–3 | Connah's Quay | 3 | 28′ Away |
Cardiff MU Home
Connah's Quay Away
Wins
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
Both teams scored
Clean sheets
Scores first
Season analysis
Home, away & overall
Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.
Cardiff MU
| Goals & results | Home5 matches | Away5 matches | Overall10 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Draws | 40.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% |
| Goals scored / match | 2.60 | 1.60 | 2.10 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2.00 | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| Total goals / match | 4.60 | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| Failed to score | 20.0% | 40.0% | 30.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 80.0% | 40.0% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 4 of 46 of 6 | 100%100% |
| Scores first → wins | 2 of 44 of 6 | 50%67% |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 10 of 4 | 0%0% |
Scoring order known: 5/5 home.Scoring order known: 10/10 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Home matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 3 | 0 |
| 16–30 | 2 | 0 |
| 31–45 | 1 | 1 |
| 46–60 | 1 | 3 |
| 61–75 | 3 | 2 |
| 76–90 | 3 | 4 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Connah's Quay
| Goals & results | Home6 matches | Away5 matches | Overall11 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 2.17 | 2.40 | 2.27 |
| Draws | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Goals scored / match | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.45 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| Total goals / match | 3.00 | 3.40 | 3.18 |
| Failed to score | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 20.0% | 27.3% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 5 of 58 of 10 | 100%80% |
| Scores first → wins | 4 of 58 of 10 | 80%80% |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 00 of 1 | —0% |
Scoring order known: 5/5 away.Scoring order known: 11/11 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Away matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 2 | 0 |
| 16–30 | 3 | 0 |
| 31–45 | 4 | 1 |
| 46–60 | 1 | 1 |
| 61–75 | 1 | 2 |
| 76–90 | 1 | 1 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Two perspectives
What each model says about this match
The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.
| Model | Cardiff MU | Draw | Connah's Quay | How it works |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 41.5% | 17.2% | 41.3% | Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage |
| Goals (Poisson) | 14.0% | 19.8% | 64.2% | Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average |
0.84–2.08
Model expected goals
53.9%
Probability of over 2.5 goals
48.6%
Both teams to score
0-2
Most likely score, at 11.7%
Most likely scores
0-211.7%
0-111.2%
1-29.8%
1-19.4%
0-38.1%
1-36.8%
Strength and dominance
Team strength and finishing efficiency
Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.
| Measure | Cardiff MU | Connah's Quay | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 1526 | 1585 | The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality. |
| Change over the last 10 | 9 | 97 | Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches |
| Opposition strength | 1511 | 1494 | Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule. |
Goals
When teams score and how matches unfold
Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.
Goals by half
| Team | 1H scored | 2H scored | 1H conceded | 2H conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MU | 0.90 | 1.20 | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| Connah's Quay | 1.27 | 1.18 | 0.09 | 0.64 |
Total goals
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MU | 0% | 20% | 20% | 10% | 50% |
| Connah's Quay | 0% | 9% | 18% | 46% | 27% |
Context
Coming into the match
Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.
1.60
Cardiff MU at home, 5 matches
2.40
Connah's Quay away, 5 matches
83d
Days of rest for Cardiff MU
83d
Days of rest for Connah's Quay
—
Manager of Cardiff MU
—
Manager of Connah's Quay
0
Matches for Cardiff MU in the last 14 days
0
Matches for Connah's Quay in the last 14 days
16
Points for Cardiff MU behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone
6
Points for Connah's Quay behind the leaders, and 20 above the relegation zone
3.37
League goals per match
17.2%
League draw rate
Statistics
Side-by-side comparison
Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Cardiff MU, the right bar represents Connah's Quay.
On the ball
5.22
6.75
corners
6.17
—
fouls
2.0
2.25
yellow cards
Recent form
| Team | Last 10 | PPG | goals | streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MU | DLDDWWLLWW | 1.50 | 2.10–1.30 | 1D |
| Connah's Quay | WWWLDWWWWW | 2.50 | 2.60–0.60 | 3W |
At half-time
| Team | ahead | level | behind | comeback wins | lead lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MU | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Connah's Quay | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Squads
Injuries and suspensions
0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.
Cardiff MU
No absences reported.
Connah's Quay
No absences reported.
Newsroom
News about both teams
No recent news linked to these teams.