Cambrian

Cambrian

VS Scheduled Friday 26 Feb 202719:45

Wales 26/27 Cymru Premier · Matchday 27

TNS

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cambrian4–3Llandudno
2026-09-18	26/27	Caernarfon9–1Cambrian
2026-09-15	26/27	Trefelin0–4Cambrian
2026-09-11	26/27	Cambrian2–1Holywell
2026-09-04	26/27	Cardiff MU2–2Cambrian
2026-08-31	26/27	Cambrian2–2Penybont
2026-08-28	26/27	Connah's Quay3–0Cambrian
2026-08-21	26/27	Haverfordwest0–3Cambrian

TNS

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Trefelin1–3TNS
2026-09-19	26/27	TNS2–1Llandudno
2026-09-15	26/27	TNS5–0Flint Town Utd
2026-09-11	26/27	Airbus0–2TNS
2026-09-05	26/27	TNS1–0Barry Town
2026-08-31	26/27	Caernarfon2–3TNS
2026-08-28	26/27	TNS5–1Colwyn Bay
2026-08-21	26/27	Cardiff MU0–5TNS

Cambrian TNS

Wins

50%

100%

Over 2.5 goals

100%

75%

Both teams scored

62%

50%

Clean sheets

25%

50%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Cambrian

Home · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
7	Cambrian		TNS	1
7	Cambrian	2–2	Penybont	2	30′ Home
7	Cambrian		Connah's Quay	3
7	Cambrian		Caernarfon	4
7	Cambrian		Colwyn Bay	5
7	Cambrian		Barry Town	6
7 · Cambrian
7	Cambrian	4–3	Llandudno	8	9′ Home
7	Cambrian		Cardiff MU	9
7	Cambrian		Airbus	10
7	Cambrian		Haverfordwest	11
7	Cambrian	1–1	Briton Ferry	12	31′ Away
7	Cambrian	1–0	Flint Town Utd	13	83′ Home
7	Cambrian		Trefelin	14
7	Cambrian		Ammanford	15
7	Cambrian	2–1	Holywell	16	36′ Home

TNS

Away · Cymru Premier

Home			Away		1st goal
1 · TNS
2	Penybont	0–0	TNS	1	–
3	Connah's Quay		TNS	1
4	Caernarfon	2–3	TNS	1	14′ Away
5	Colwyn Bay		TNS	1
6	Barry Town		TNS	1
7	Cambrian		TNS	1
8	Llandudno		TNS	1
9	Cardiff MU	0–5	TNS	1	45+6′ Away
10	Airbus	0–2	TNS	1	30′ Away
11	Haverfordwest		TNS	1
12	Briton Ferry		TNS	1
13	Flint Town Utd		TNS	1
14	Trefelin	1–3	TNS	1	7′ Away
15	Ammanford		TNS	1
16	Holywell		TNS	1

Cambrian Home TNS Away

Wins

60%

80%

Over 1.5

80%

Over 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

40%

60%

Both teams scored

80%

40%

Clean sheets

20%

60%

Scores first

80%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Cymru Premier · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Cambrian

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.20	1.17	1.64
Draws	40.0%	16.7%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.83	1.91
Goals conceded / match	1.40	2.67	2.09
Total goals / match	3.40	4.50	4.00
Failed to score	0.0%	16.7%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	0.0%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 4	50%
Scores first → wins	3 of 4	75%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	1	0
31–45	2	2
46–60	2	1
61–75	2	1
76–90	1	3

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

TNS

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	3.00	2.60	2.82
Draws	0.0%	20.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.67	2.60	2.64
Goals conceded / match	0.33	0.60	0.45
Total goals / match	3.00	3.20	3.09
Failed to score	0.0%	20.0%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	40.0%	45.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 4	100%
Scores first → wins	4 of 4	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	3	0
16–30	2	0
31–45	2	2
46–60	1	1
61–75	4	0
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Cambrian	Draw	TNS	How it works
Strength (Elo)	36.9%	17.0%	46.1%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	4.1%	8.0%	72.1%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.76–3.61 Model expected goals

65.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

43.6% Both teams to score

0-3 Most likely score, at 9.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-39.9%

0-48.9%

0-28.2%

1-37.5%

1-46.8%

0-56.4%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Cambrian	TNS	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1519	1618	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	27	116	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1497	1503	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Cambrian	0.64	1.27	0.73	1.36
TNS	1.27	1.36	0.27	0.18

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Cambrian	0%	9%	9%	36%	46%
TNS	9%	18%	18%	9%	46%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.20 Cambrian at home, 5 matches

2.60 TNS away, 5 matches

153d Days of rest for Cambrian

153d Days of rest for TNS

— Manager of Cambrian

— Manager of TNS

0 Matches for Cambrian in the last 14 days

0 Matches for TNS in the last 14 days

13 Points for Cambrian behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

0 Points for TNS behind the leaders, and 26 above the relegation zone

3.37 League goals per match

17.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Cambrian, the right bar represents TNS.

On the ball

20 matches

4.64

corners

7.0

8.5

fouls

6.25

2.33

yellow cards

1.6

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Cambrian	WLWWDDLWWD	1.80	2.00–2.10	1W
TNS	WWWWWWWWWW	3.00	2.90–0.50	10W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Cambrian	3	4	4	0	0
TNS	7	3	1	1	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Cambrian

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

TNS

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.