Al-Ahli

Al-Ahli

VS Scheduled Thursday 15 Oct 202619:00

Saudi Arabia 26/27 Saudi Pro League · Matchday 9

Al-Nassr

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-11	26/27	Al-Ahli3–1Al-Hazem
2026-09-08	26/27	Al-Qadsiah3–2Al-Ahli
2026-09-04	26/27	Al-Ahli5–0Al-Riyadh
2026-09-01	26/27	Al-Hilal3–0Al-Ahli
2026-08-29	26/27	Al-Kholood3–1Al-Ahli
2026-08-22	26/27	Al-Ahli4–0Abha
2026-08-13	26/27	Draih0–1Al-Ahli

Al-Nassr

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-12	26/27	Al-Khaleej1–1Al-Nassr
2026-09-09	26/27	Al-Nassr2–1Abha
2026-09-05	26/27	Al-Ittihad2–1Al-Nassr
2026-08-28	26/27	Al-Nassr2–1Al-Taawoun
2026-08-25	26/27	Al-Ettifaq2–3Al-Nassr
2026-08-21	26/27	Al-Riyadh0–4Al-Nassr
2026-08-15	26/27	Al-Nassr3–0Al-Fateh

Al-Ahli Al-Nassr

Wins

57%

71%

Over 2.5 goals

86%

Both teams scored

43%

71%

Clean sheets

43%

29%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Al-Ahli

Home · Saudi Pro League

Home			Away		1st goal
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Hilal	1
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Ittihad	2
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Nassr	3
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Qadsiah	4
6	Al-Ahli		Neom SC	5
6 · Al-Ahli
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Kholood	7
6	Al-Ahli		Draih	8
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Ettifaq	9
6	Al-Ahli	3–1	Al-Hazem	10	2′ Away
6	Al-Ahli	5–0	Al-Riyadh	11	16′ Home
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Fayha	12
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Khaleej	13
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Shabab	14
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Fateh	15
6	Al-Ahli		Faisaly	16
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Taawoun	17
6	Al-Ahli	4–0	Abha	18	5′ Home

Al-Nassr

Away · Saudi Pro League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Al-Hilal		Al-Nassr	3
2	Al-Ittihad	2–1	Al-Nassr	3	4′ Home
3 · Al-Nassr
4	Al-Qadsiah		Al-Nassr	3
5	Neom SC		Al-Nassr	3
6	Al-Ahli		Al-Nassr	3
7	Al-Kholood		Al-Nassr	3
8	Draih		Al-Nassr	3
9	Al-Ettifaq	2–3	Al-Nassr	3	31′ Home
10	Al-Hazem		Al-Nassr	3
11	Al-Riyadh	0–4	Al-Nassr	3	18′ Away
12	Al-Fayha		Al-Nassr	3
13	Al-Khaleej	1–1	Al-Nassr	3	45+1′ Home
14	Al-Shabab		Al-Nassr	3
15	Al-Fateh		Al-Nassr	3
16	Faisaly		Al-Nassr	3
17	Al-Taawoun		Al-Nassr	3
18	Abha		Al-Nassr	3

Al-Ahli Home Al-Nassr Away

Wins

100%

50%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

100%

75%

Over 3.5

100%

50%

Both teams scored

33%

75%

Clean sheets

67%

25%

Scores first

67%

25%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Saudi Pro League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Al-Ahli

7 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away4 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	3.00	0.75	1.71
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	4.00	1.00	2.29
Goals conceded / match	0.33	2.25	1.43
Total goals / match	4.33	3.25	3.71
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	25.0%	14.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 2	100%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 3/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	1
16–30	2	0
31–45	4	0
46–60	2	0
61–75	1	0
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Al-Nassr

7 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away4 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.75	2.29
Draws	0.0%	25.0%	14.3%
Goals scored / match	2.33	2.25	2.29
Goals conceded / match	0.67	1.25	1.00
Total goals / match	3.00	3.50	3.29
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	25.0%	14.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 3	33%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	1	1
31–45	2	3
46–60	1	0
61–75	2	0
76–90	3	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Al-Ahli	Draw	Al-Nassr	How it works
Strength (Elo)	38.2%	29.9%	31.9%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	25.3%	19.3%	51.1%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.64–2.40 Model expected goals

72.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals

69.8% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 8.3%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-28.3%

1-16.9%

2-26.8%

1-36.6%

2-15.7%

2-35.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Al-Ahli	Al-Nassr	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1520	1549	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	9	35	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1511	1491	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Al-Ahli	1.29	1.00	1.00	0.43
Al-Nassr	1.00	1.29	0.86	0.14

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Al-Ahli	0%	14%	0%	14%	71%
Al-Nassr	0%	0%	14%	57%	29%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

3.00 Al-Ahli at home, 3 matches

1.75 Al-Nassr away, 4 matches

34d Days of rest for Al-Ahli

33d Days of rest for Al-Nassr

— Manager of Al-Ahli

— Manager of Al-Nassr

0 Matches for Al-Ahli in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Al-Nassr in the last 14 days

6 Points for Al-Ahli behind the leaders, and 9 above the relegation zone

2 Points for Al-Nassr behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

2.76 League goals per match

30.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Al-Ahli, the right bar represents Al-Nassr.

On the ball

20 matches

3.86

corners

8.29

13.71

fouls

11.0

2.6

yellow cards

2.2

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Al-Ahli	WLWLLWW	1.71	2.29–1.43	1W
Al-Nassr	DWLWWWW	2.29	2.29–1.00	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Al-Ahli	4	0	3	0	0
Al-Nassr	3	1	3	1	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Al-Ahli

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Al-Nassr

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.