Napier

Napier

VS Scheduled Saturday 24 Oct 202623:30

New Zealand 2026 National League · Matchday 5

Wellington

Head-to-head overview

2 meetings

NapierWins: 2
Draws0.0% of meetings: 0
WellingtonWins: 0

Goals per match: 3.00
Over 2.5 goals: 100.0%
Both teams scored: 100.0%

Date	Season	Match
2026-07-18	2026	Wellington1–2Napier
2026-04-26	2026	Napier2–1Wellington

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-27	2026	Napier1–1Miramar
2026-08-29	2026	FC Western0–6Napier
2026-08-23	2026	Napier2–3Miramar
2026-08-08	2026	Waterside Karori1–3Napier
2026-08-02	2026	Napier4–0Petone
2026-07-18	2026	Wellington1–2Napier
2026-07-12	2026	Napier5–1Upper Hutt City
2026-06-28	2026	Napier3–2Wellington Ol.

Wellington

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	2026	Wellington1–1Auckland United
2026-08-29	2026	Wellington1–2Upper Hutt City
2026-08-22	2026	Island Bay United2–1Wellington
2026-08-08	2026	Wellington0–2Wellington Ol.
2026-08-01	2026	Wellington2–2Western Suburbs
2026-07-18	2026	Wellington1–2Napier
2026-07-11	2026	Miramar1–0Wellington
2026-07-04	2026	Wellington1–1FC Western

Napier Wellington

Wins

75%

0%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

50%

Both teams scored

75%

Clean sheets

25%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 2026

Napier

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
5	Napier		Birkenhead United	1
5	Napier		Cashmere Technical	2
5	Napier		Eastern	3
5	Napier	3–2	Wellington Ol.	4	24′ Away
5 · Napier
5	Napier		Auckland City	6
5	Napier	2–3	Miramar	7	8′ Home
5	Napier	1–1	Miramar	7	1′ Home
5	Napier		Auckland United	8
5	Napier		Fencibles United	9
5	Napier		Ferrymead Bays	10
5	Napier	0–0	Western Suburbs	11	–
5	Napier		Nomads United	12
5	Napier		East Coast Bays	13
5	Napier		Coastal Spirit	14
5	Napier		Western Springs	15
5	Napier		Auckland II	16
5	Napier		Nelson Suburbs	17
5	Napier	5–1	Upper Hutt City	18	6′ Home
5	Napier		Christchurch United	19
5	Napier		Northern AFC	20
5	Napier	3–0	Island Bay United	21	2′ Home
5	Napier		Melville United	22
5	Napier		South City Royals	23
5	Napier		Bay Olympic	24
5	Napier		Tauranga City United	25
5	Napier	5–0	Waterside Karori	26	21′ Home
5	Napier	4–0	Petone	27	7′ Home
5	Napier	2–1	Wellington	28	42′ Away
5	Napier		Wanaka	29
5	Napier		Selwyn United	30
5	Napier		Manukau United	31
5	Napier	6–1	FC Western	32	—

Wellington

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Birkenhead United		Wellington	28
2	Cashmere Technical		Wellington	28
3	Eastern		Wellington	28
4	Wellington Ol.	3–1	Wellington	28	3′ Away
5	Napier	2–1	Wellington	28	42′ Away
6	Auckland City		Wellington	28
7	Miramar	1–0	Wellington	28	45+4′ Home
8	Auckland United		Wellington	28
9	Fencibles United		Wellington	28
10	Ferrymead Bays		Wellington	28
11	Western Suburbs	1–0	Wellington	28	34′ Home
12	Nomads United		Wellington	28
13	East Coast Bays		Wellington	28
14	Coastal Spirit		Wellington	28
15	Western Springs		Wellington	28
16	Auckland II		Wellington	28
17	Nelson Suburbs		Wellington	28
18	Upper Hutt City	1–0	Wellington	28	61′ Home
19	Christchurch United		Wellington	28
20	Northern AFC		Wellington	28
21	Island Bay United	2–1	Wellington	28	31′ Away
22	Melville United		Wellington	28
23	South City Royals		Wellington	28
24	Bay Olympic		Wellington	28
25	Tauranga City United		Wellington	28
26	Waterside Karori	1–3	Wellington	28	9′ Away
27	Petone	1–1	Wellington	28	31′ Away
28 · Wellington
29	Wanaka		Wellington	28
30	Selwyn United		Wellington	28
31	Manukau United		Wellington	28
32	FC Western	2–1	Wellington	28	20′ Home

Napier Home Wellington Away

Wins

70%

11%

Over 1.5

90%

67%

Over 2.5

80%

56%

Over 3.5

60%

22%

Both teams scored

60%

67%

Clean sheets

40%

0%

Scores first

60%

56%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 2026 · Completed league matches only.

Napier

19 matches

Goals & results	Home10 matches	Away9 matches	Overall19 matches
Points / match	2.30	2.44	2.37
Draws	20.0%	11.1%	15.8%
Goals scored / match	3.10	2.44	2.79
Goals conceded / match	0.90	0.78	0.84
Total goals / match	4.00	3.22	3.63
Failed to score	10.0%	0.0%	5.3%
Under 2.5 goals	20.0%	33.3%	26.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 6	67%
Scores first → wins	4 of 6	67%
Concedes first → wins	3 of 3	100%

Scoring order known: 10/10 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Wellington

19 matches

Goals & results	Home10 matches	Away9 matches	Overall19 matches
Points / match	0.80	0.44	0.63
Draws	50.0%	11.1%	31.6%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.89	0.95
Goals conceded / match	1.30	1.56	1.42
Total goals / match	2.30	2.44	2.37
Failed to score	30.0%	33.3%	31.6%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	44.4%	52.6%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 5	80%
Scores first → wins	1 of 5	20%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 4	0%

Scoring order known: 9/9 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	1
16–30	0	3
31–45	4	3
46–60	0	3
61–75	0	3
76–90	2	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Napier	Draw	Wellington	How it works
Strength (Elo)	74.0%	8.3%	17.7%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	67.8%	20.1%	10.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.94–0.60 Model expected goals

45.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

38.2% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 15.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-015.2%

2-014.8%

3-09.6%

1-19.2%

2-18.9%

0-07.8%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Napier	Wellington	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1627	1428	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	50	-43	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1498	1505	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Napier	1.05	1.74	0.47	0.37
Wellington	0.63	0.32	0.74	0.68

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Napier	5%	10%	10%	26%	47%
Wellington	5%	21%	26%	26%	21%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.30 Napier at home, 10 matches

0.44 Wellington away, 9 matches

27d Days of rest for Napier

28d Days of rest for Wellington

— Manager of Napier

— Manager of Wellington

0 Matches for Napier in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Wellington in the last 14 days

13 Points for Napier behind the leaders, and 35 above the relegation zone

46 Points for Wellington behind the leaders, and 2 above the relegation zone

3.55 League goals per match

15.3% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Napier, the right bar represents Wellington.

On the ball

20 matches

8.23

corners

6.06

—

fouls

—

2.12

yellow cards

1.55

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Napier	DWLWWWWWWD	2.30	3.00–1.20	1D
Wellington	DLLLDLLDDD	0.50	0.80–1.40	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Napier	8	8	3	2	1
Wellington	7	5	7	0	5

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Napier

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Wellington

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.