Ferrymead Bays

VS Scheduled Saturday 7 Nov 202603:00

New Zealand 2026 National League · Matchday 7

Recent matches

Ferrymead Bays

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	2026	Ferrymead Bays0–0Eastern
2026-08-30	2026	Ferrymead Bays2–1South City Royals
2026-08-22	2026	Ferrymead Bays5–0Nelson Suburbs
2026-08-08	2026	Ferrymead Bays1–2Nomads United
2026-08-01	2026	Selwyn United0–2Ferrymead Bays
2026-07-17	2026	Ferrymead Bays6–0Coastal Spirit
2026-07-11	2026	Christchurch United0–0Ferrymead Bays
2026-06-27	2026	Cashmere Technical4–0Ferrymead Bays

Wellington

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	2026	Wellington1–1Auckland United
2026-08-29	2026	Wellington1–2Upper Hutt City
2026-08-22	2026	Island Bay United2–1Wellington
2026-08-08	2026	Wellington0–2Wellington Ol.
2026-08-01	2026	Wellington2–2Western Suburbs
2026-07-18	2026	Wellington1–2Napier
2026-07-11	2026	Miramar1–0Wellington
2026-07-04	2026	Wellington1–1FC Western

Ferrymead Bays Wellington

Wins

50%

0%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

50%

Both teams scored

25%

75%

Clean sheets

62%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 2026

Ferrymead Bays

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
10	Ferrymead Bays		Birkenhead United	1
10	Ferrymead Bays	0–5	Cashmere Technical	2	—
10	Ferrymead Bays	0–0	Eastern	3	–
10	Ferrymead Bays		Wellington Ol.	4
10	Ferrymead Bays		Napier	5
10	Ferrymead Bays		Auckland City	6
10	Ferrymead Bays		Miramar	7
10	Ferrymead Bays		Auckland United	8
10	Ferrymead Bays		Fencibles United	9
10 · Ferrymead Bays
10	Ferrymead Bays		Western Suburbs	11
10	Ferrymead Bays	1–2	Nomads United	12	43′ Home
10	Ferrymead Bays		East Coast Bays	13
10	Ferrymead Bays	6–0	Coastal Spirit	14	2′ Home
10	Ferrymead Bays		Western Springs	15
10	Ferrymead Bays		Auckland II	16
10	Ferrymead Bays	5–0	Nelson Suburbs	17	5′ Home
10	Ferrymead Bays		Upper Hutt City	18
10	Ferrymead Bays	1–0	Christchurch United	19	—
10	Ferrymead Bays	1–0	Northern AFC	20	47′ Home
10	Ferrymead Bays		Island Bay United	21
10	Ferrymead Bays		Melville United	22
10	Ferrymead Bays	2–1	South City Royals	23	15′ Home
10	Ferrymead Bays		Bay Olympic	24
10	Ferrymead Bays		Tauranga City United	25
10	Ferrymead Bays		Waterside Karori	26
10	Ferrymead Bays		Petone	27
10	Ferrymead Bays		Wellington	28
10	Ferrymead Bays	5–0	Wanaka	29	30′ Home
10	Ferrymead Bays	3–0	Selwyn United	30	9′ Home
10	Ferrymead Bays		Manukau United	31
10	Ferrymead Bays		FC Western	32

Wellington

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Birkenhead United		Wellington	28
2	Cashmere Technical		Wellington	28
3	Eastern		Wellington	28
4	Wellington Ol.	3–1	Wellington	28	3′ Away
5	Napier	2–1	Wellington	28	42′ Away
6	Auckland City		Wellington	28
7	Miramar	1–0	Wellington	28	45+4′ Home
8	Auckland United		Wellington	28
9	Fencibles United		Wellington	28
10	Ferrymead Bays		Wellington	28
11	Western Suburbs	1–0	Wellington	28	34′ Home
12	Nomads United		Wellington	28
13	East Coast Bays		Wellington	28
14	Coastal Spirit		Wellington	28
15	Western Springs		Wellington	28
16	Auckland II		Wellington	28
17	Nelson Suburbs		Wellington	28
18	Upper Hutt City	1–0	Wellington	28	61′ Home
19	Christchurch United		Wellington	28
20	Northern AFC		Wellington	28
21	Island Bay United	2–1	Wellington	28	31′ Away
22	Melville United		Wellington	28
23	South City Royals		Wellington	28
24	Bay Olympic		Wellington	28
25	Tauranga City United		Wellington	28
26	Waterside Karori	1–3	Wellington	28	9′ Away
27	Petone	1–1	Wellington	28	31′ Away
28 · Wellington
29	Wanaka		Wellington	28
30	Selwyn United		Wellington	28
31	Manukau United		Wellington	28
32	FC Western	2–1	Wellington	28	20′ Home

Ferrymead Bays Home Wellington Away

Wins

70%

11%

Over 1.5

70%

67%

Over 2.5

70%

56%

Over 3.5

40%

22%

Both teams scored

20%

67%

Clean sheets

70%

0%

Scores first

80%

56%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 2026 · Completed league matches only.

Ferrymead Bays

19 matches

Goals & results	Home10 matches	Away9 matches	Overall19 matches
Points / match	2.20	1.89	2.05
Draws	10.0%	22.2%	15.8%
Goals scored / match	2.40	1.67	2.05
Goals conceded / match	0.80	1.22	1.00
Total goals / match	3.20	2.89	3.05
Failed to score	20.0%	33.3%	26.3%
Under 2.5 goals	30.0%	44.4%	36.8%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	7 of 8	88%
Scores first → wins	7 of 8	88%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 10/10 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Wellington

19 matches

Goals & results	Home10 matches	Away9 matches	Overall19 matches
Points / match	0.80	0.44	0.63
Draws	50.0%	11.1%	31.6%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.89	0.95
Goals conceded / match	1.30	1.56	1.42
Total goals / match	2.30	2.44	2.37
Failed to score	30.0%	33.3%	31.6%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	44.4%	52.6%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 5	80%
Scores first → wins	1 of 5	20%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 4	0%

Scoring order known: 9/9 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	1
16–30	0	3
31–45	4	3
46–60	0	3
61–75	0	3
76–90	2	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Ferrymead Bays	Draw	Wellington	How it works
Strength (Elo)	68.4%	10.2%	21.4%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	56.2%	27.1%	16.4%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.43–0.63 Model expected goals

33.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals

35.3% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 18.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-018.2%

2-013.0%

0-012.8%

1-111.5%

2-18.2%

0-18.0%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Ferrymead Bays	Wellington	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1581	1428	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	17	-43	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1503	1505	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Ferrymead Bays	1.32	0.74	0.47	0.53
Wellington	0.63	0.32	0.74	0.68

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Ferrymead Bays	10%	10%	16%	26%	37%
Wellington	5%	21%	26%	26%	21%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.20 Ferrymead Bays at home, 10 matches

0.44 Wellington away, 9 matches

42d Days of rest for Ferrymead Bays

42d Days of rest for Wellington

— Manager of Ferrymead Bays

— Manager of Wellington

0 Matches for Ferrymead Bays in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Wellington in the last 14 days

19 Points for Ferrymead Bays behind the leaders, and 29 above the relegation zone

46 Points for Wellington behind the leaders, and 2 above the relegation zone

3.55 League goals per match

15.3% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Ferrymead Bays, the right bar represents Wellington.

On the ball

20 matches

4.69

corners

6.06

—

fouls

—

2.56

yellow cards

1.55

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Ferrymead Bays	DWWLWWDLLW	1.70	2.10–0.90	1D
Wellington	DLLLDLLDDD	0.50	0.80–1.40	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Ferrymead Bays	10	6	3	1	1
Wellington	7	5	7	0	5

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Ferrymead Bays

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Wellington

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.