Rodina Moscow

Rodina Moscow

VS Scheduled Monday 19 Oct 202617:30

Russia 26/27 Premier Liga · Matchday 11

Orenburg

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-16	26/27	Rodina Moscow1–1Rubin Kazan
2026-09-11	26/27	Krylya Sovetov2–1Rodina Moscow
2026-09-06	26/27	Dynamo Makhachkala2–0Rodina Moscow
2026-08-30	26/27	Rodina Moscow0–3Baltika
2026-08-23	26/27	Dynamo Moscow3–1Rodina Moscow
2026-08-15	26/27	Rodina Moscow3–3Akron Togliatti
2026-08-09	26/27	Zenit1–2Rodina Moscow
2026-07-31	26/27	Rodina Moscow2–4FK Rostov

Orenburg

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-17	26/27	Orenburg0–0Krasnodar
2026-09-12	26/27	Dynamo Moscow1–0Orenburg
2026-09-06	26/27	Orenburg2–2Akron Togliatti
2026-08-30	26/27	Spartak Moscow1–1Orenburg
2026-08-22	26/27	Fakel Voronezh0–0Orenburg
2026-08-14	26/27	Orenburg1–1Lokomotiv Moscow
2026-08-09	26/27	Rubin Kazan1–1Orenburg
2026-08-02	26/27	Orenburg0–3Zenit

Rodina Moscow Orenburg

Wins

12%

0%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

25%

Both teams scored

75%

50%

Clean sheets

0%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Rodina Moscow

Home · Premier Liga

Home			Away		1st goal
15	Rodina Moscow		Krasnodar	1
15	Rodina Moscow		Spartak Moscow	2
15	Rodina Moscow		CSKA Moscow	3
15	Rodina Moscow		Dynamo Moscow	4
15	Rodina Moscow		Zenit	5
15	Rodina Moscow	1–1	Rubin Kazan	6	79′ Home
15	Rodina Moscow		Dynamo Makhachkala	7
15	Rodina Moscow	0–3	Baltika	8	22′ Away
15	Rodina Moscow		Krylya Sovetov	9
15	Rodina Moscow		Akhmat Grozny	10
15	Rodina Moscow		Orenburg	11
15	Rodina Moscow	3–3	Akron Togliatti	12	12′ Home
15	Rodina Moscow	2–4	FK Rostov	13	—
15	Rodina Moscow		Lokomotiv Moscow	14
15 · Rodina Moscow
15	Rodina Moscow		Fakel Voronezh	16

Orenburg

Away · Premier Liga

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Krasnodar		Orenburg	11
2	Spartak Moscow	1–1	Orenburg	11	66′ Away
3	CSKA Moscow		Orenburg	11
4	Dynamo Moscow	1–0	Orenburg	11	90′ Home
5	Zenit		Orenburg	11
6	Rubin Kazan	1–1	Orenburg	11	—
7	Dynamo Makhachkala		Orenburg	11
8	Baltika		Orenburg	11
9	Krylya Sovetov		Orenburg	11
10	Akhmat Grozny		Orenburg	11
11 · Orenburg
12	Akron Togliatti		Orenburg	11
13	FK Rostov		Orenburg	11
14	Lokomotiv Moscow		Orenburg	11
15	Rodina Moscow		Orenburg	11
16	Fakel Voronezh	0–0	Orenburg	11	–

Rodina Moscow Home Orenburg Away

Wins

0%

Over 1.5

100%

50%

Over 2.5

75%

0%

Over 3.5

50%

0%

Both teams scored

75%

50%

Clean sheets

0%

25%

Scores first

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Premier Liga · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Rodina Moscow

9 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away5 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	0.50	0.60	0.56
Draws	50.0%	0.0%	22.2%
Goals scored / match	1.50	0.80	1.11
Goals conceded / match	2.75	2.20	2.44
Total goals / match	4.25	3.00	3.56
Failed to score	25.0%	40.0%	33.3%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	20.0%	22.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Orenburg

9 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away4 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.20	0.75	1.00
Draws	60.0%	75.0%	66.7%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.50	0.78
Goals conceded / match	1.40	0.75	1.11
Total goals / match	2.40	1.25	1.89
Failed to score	40.0%	50.0%	44.4%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	100.0%	66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Rodina Moscow	Draw	Orenburg	How it works
Strength (Elo)	41.0%	26.4%	32.6%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	20.7%	24.4%	54.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.92–1.66 Model expected goals

47.0% Probability of over 2.5 goals

48.3% Both teams to score

0-1 Most likely score, at 12.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-112.6%

1-111.6%

0-210.4%

1-29.6%

0-07.5%

1-06.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Rodina Moscow	Orenburg	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1439	1454	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-39	23	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1519	1546	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Rodina Moscow	0.44	0.67	0.56	1.89
Orenburg	0.11	0.67	0.22	0.89

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Rodina Moscow	0%	0%	27%	46%	27%
Orenburg	12%	25%	20%	15%	28%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

0.40 Rodina Moscow at home, 5 matches

0.80 Orenburg away, 10 matches

33d Days of rest for Rodina Moscow

32d Days of rest for Orenburg

— Manager of Rodina Moscow

— Manager of Orenburg

0 Matches for Rodina Moscow in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Orenburg in the last 14 days

16 Points for Rodina Moscow behind the leaders, and -3 above the relegation zone

12 Points for Orenburg behind the leaders, and 1 above the relegation zone

2.64 League goals per match

28.2% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Rodina Moscow, the right bar represents Orenburg.

On the ball

20 matches

3.78

corners

3.57

14.44

fouls

17.44

2.8

yellow cards

3.78

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Rodina Moscow	DLLLLDWLLW	0.80	1.20–2.20	1D
Orenburg	DLDDDDDLWL	0.90	0.70–1.30	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Rodina Moscow	1	5	3	1	1
Orenburg	1	6	2	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Rodina Moscow

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Orenburg

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.