Head-to-head overview
1 meetings- TobolWins
- 0
- Draws0.0% of meetings
- 0
- AktobeWins
- 1
- Goals per match
- 5.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 100.0%
- Both teams scored
- 100.0%
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 |
2026
|
Aktobe4–1Tobol |
Recent matches
Tobol
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 |
2026
|
Tobol0–2Yelimay Semey |
| 2026-09-13 |
2026
|
Kairat1–4Tobol |
| 2026-09-06 |
2026
|
Tobol3–1Ulytau |
| 2026-08-30 |
2026
|
Kaspiy1–0Tobol |
| 2026-08-25 |
2026
|
Tobol3–2Kaisar |
| 2026-08-16 |
2026
|
Irtysh0–2Tobol |
| 2026-08-02 |
2026
|
Ordabasy2–0Tobol |
| 2026-07-26 |
2026
|
Tobol1–0Atyrau |
Aktobe
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 |
2026
|
Aktobe2–2Ulytau |
| 2026-09-12 |
2026
|
Kaspiy1–2Aktobe |
| 2026-09-05 |
2026
|
Aktobe1–0Zhenys |
| 2026-08-30 |
2026
|
Irtysh2–1Aktobe |
| 2026-08-15 |
2026
|
Kaisar1–2Aktobe |
| 2026-08-09 |
2026
|
Atyrau1–1Aktobe |
| 2026-08-01 |
2026
|
Kyzyl-Zhar3–1Aktobe |
| 2026-07-25 |
2026
|
Aktobe2–1Okzhetpes |
Tobol
Aktobe
Wins
62%
50%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
75%
Both teams scored
38%
88%
Clean sheets
25%
12%
Home & away results
This season · 2026
Tobol
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tobol | 0–3 | Ordabasy | 1 | 50′ Away |
| 7 | Tobol | 1–1 | Kairat | 2 | 13′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | Astana | 3 | ||
| 7 | Tobol | 3–1 | Okzhetpes | 4 | 35′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | Aktobe | 5 | ||
| 7 | Tobol | 0–2 | Yelimay Semey | 6 | 16′ Away |
| 7 · Tobol | |||||
| 7 | Tobol | Zhenys | 8 | ||
| 7 | Tobol | 3–1 | Ulytau | 9 | 16′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | 2–1 | Kaspiy | 10 | 6′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | 1–0 | Irtysh | 11 | 52′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | 2–0 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 12 | 54′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | 3–2 | Kaisar | 13 | 3′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | 1–0 | Atyrau | 14 | 26′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | 3–1 | Altay | 15 | 14′ Home |
| 7 | Tobol | 2–2 | Zhetysu | 16 | 58′ Home |
Aktobe
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 2–0 | Aktobe | 5 | 2′ Home |
| 2 | Kairat | 1–0 | Aktobe | 5 | 76′ Home |
| 3 | Astana | 3–2 | Aktobe | 5 | 12′ Home |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 2–2 | Aktobe | 5 | 32′ Home |
| 5 · Aktobe | |||||
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | Aktobe | 5 | ||
| 7 | Tobol | Aktobe | 5 | ||
| 8 | Zhenys | 1–0 | Aktobe | 5 | 11′ Home |
| 9 | Ulytau | 1–1 | Aktobe | 5 | 70′ Home |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 1–2 | Aktobe | 5 | 39′ Away |
| 11 | Irtysh | 2–1 | Aktobe | 5 | 37′ Away |
| 12 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 3–1 | Aktobe | 5 | 3′ Home |
| 13 | Kaisar | 1–2 | Aktobe | 5 | 11′ Home |
| 14 | Atyrau | 1–1 | Aktobe | 5 | 37′ Home |
| 15 | Altay | 2–4 | Aktobe | 5 | 20′ Away |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 1–0 | Aktobe | 5 | 45′ Home |
Tobol Home
Aktobe Away
Wins
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
Both teams scored
Clean sheets
Scores first
Season analysis
Home, away & overall
Premier League · 2026 · Completed league matches only.
Tobol
| Goals & results | Home12 matches | Away14 matches | Overall26 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 2.17 | 0.57 | 1.31 |
| Draws | 16.7% | 14.3% | 15.4% |
| Goals scored / match | 1.75 | 0.86 | 1.27 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.17 | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| Total goals / match | 2.92 | 2.36 | 2.62 |
| Failed to score | 16.7% | 42.9% | 30.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 64.3% | 53.8% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 4 of 108 of 16 | 40%50% |
| Scores first → wins | 8 of 1010 of 16 | 80%62% |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 20 of 10 | 0%0% |
Scoring order known: 12/12 home.Scoring order known: 26/26 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Home matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 4 | 1 |
| 16–30 | 4 | 3 |
| 31–45 | 1 | 3 |
| 46–60 | 6 | 2 |
| 61–75 | 4 | 2 |
| 76–90 | 2 | 3 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Aktobe
| Goals & results | Home13 matches | Away13 matches | Overall26 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 2.31 | 0.92 | 1.62 |
| Draws | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Goals scored / match | 1.69 | 1.23 | 1.46 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.77 | 1.62 | 1.19 |
| Total goals / match | 2.46 | 2.85 | 2.65 |
| Failed to score | 7.7% | 30.8% | 19.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 46.2% | 50.0% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 3 of 39 of 14 | 100%64% |
| Scores first → wins | 2 of 311 of 14 | 67%79% |
| Concedes first → wins | 1 of 101 of 11 | 10%9% |
Scoring order known: 13/13 away.Scoring order known: 26/26 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Away matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 0 | 5 |
| 16–30 | 2 | 0 |
| 31–45 | 5 | 3 |
| 46–60 | 2 | 3 |
| 61–75 | 3 | 2 |
| 76–90 | 4 | 8 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Two perspectives
What each model says about this match
The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.
| Model | Tobol | Draw | Aktobe | How it works |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 42.4% | 26.8% | 30.8% | Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage |
| Goals (Poisson) | 25.1% | 24.1% | 50.0% | Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average |
1.12–1.69
Model expected goals
52.5%
Probability of over 2.5 goals
54.4%
Both teams to score
1-1
Most likely score, at 11.4%
Most likely scores
1-111.4%
0-110.2%
1-29.6%
0-28.6%
1-06.7%
2-16.4%
Strength and dominance
Team strength and finishing efficiency
Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.
| Measure | Tobol | Aktobe | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 1511 | 1533 | The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality. |
| Change over the last 10 | 52 | 15 | Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches |
| Opposition strength | 1497 | 1487 | Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule. |
Goals
When teams score and how matches unfold
Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.
Goals by half
| Team | 1H scored | 2H scored | 1H conceded | 2H conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobol | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| Aktobe | 0.60 | 0.95 | 0.50 | 0.65 |
Total goals
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobol | 0% | 23% | 31% | 19% | 27% |
| Aktobe | 4% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 27% |
Context
Coming into the match
Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.
2.40
Tobol at home, 10 matches
1.10
Aktobe away, 10 matches
44d
Days of rest for Tobol
43d
Days of rest for Aktobe
—
Manager of Tobol
—
Manager of Aktobe
0
Matches for Tobol in the last 14 days
0
Matches for Aktobe in the last 14 days
27
Points for Tobol behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone
19
Points for Aktobe behind the leaders, and 18 above the relegation zone
2.49
League goals per match
27.7%
League draw rate
Statistics
Side-by-side comparison
Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Tobol, the right bar represents Aktobe.
On the ball
5.35
5.35
corners
12.53
11.82
fouls
2.31
2.76
yellow cards
Recent form
| Team | Last 10 | PPG | goals | streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobol | LWWLWWLWDW | 1.90 | 1.70–1.10 | 1L |
| Aktobe | DWWLWDLWWL | 1.70 | 1.80–1.60 | 1D |
At half-time
| Team | ahead | level | behind | comeback wins | lead lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobol | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Aktobe | 6 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
Squads
Injuries and suspensions
0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.
Tobol
No absences reported.
Aktobe
No absences reported.
Newsroom
News about both teams
No recent news linked to these teams.