Crusaders

Crusaders

VS Scheduled Saturday 10 Oct 202615:00

Northern Ireland 26/27 Premiership · Matchday 11

Larne

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Crusaders2–1Bangor
2026-09-19	26/27	Linfield1–0Crusaders
2026-09-15	26/27	Crusaders3–0Dungannon
2026-09-12	26/27	Crusaders1–2Limavady Utd
2026-09-05	26/27	Coleraine4–1Crusaders
2026-08-29	26/27	Glentoran1–2Crusaders
2026-08-22	26/27	Crusaders3–2Portadown
2026-08-15	26/27	Crusaders2–1Ballymena Utd

Larne

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Carrick2–5Larne
2026-09-15	26/27	Larne2–0Cliftonville
2026-09-12	26/27	Portadown0–2Larne
2026-09-08	26/27	Larne1–0Bangor
2026-09-04	26/27	Larne2–1Glentoran
2026-08-15	26/27	Coleraine0–0Larne

Crusaders Larne

Wins

62%

83%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

33%

Both teams scored

75%

33%

Clean sheets

12%

67%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Crusaders

Home · Premiership

Home			Away		1st goal
4	Crusaders		Coleraine	1
4	Crusaders		Linfield	2
4	Crusaders		Larne	3
4 · Crusaders
4	Crusaders		Glentoran	5
4	Crusaders	3–0	Dungannon	6	75′ Home
4	Crusaders		Cliftonville	7
4	Crusaders		Carrick	8
4	Crusaders	2–1	Ballymena Utd	9	—
4	Crusaders	1–2	Limavady Utd	10	29′ Away
4	Crusaders	2–1	Bangor	11	16′ Home
4	Crusaders	3–2	Portadown	12	11′ Home

Larne

Away · Premiership

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Coleraine	0–0	Larne	3	–
2	Linfield		Larne	3
3 · Larne
4	Crusaders		Larne	3
5	Glentoran		Larne	3
6	Dungannon		Larne	3
7	Cliftonville		Larne	3
8	Carrick	2–5	Larne	3	15′ Away
9	Ballymena Utd		Larne	3
10	Limavady Utd		Larne	3
11	Bangor		Larne	3
12	Portadown	0–2	Larne	3	7′ Away

Crusaders Home Larne Away

Wins

80%

67%

Over 1.5

100%

67%

Over 2.5

100%

33%

Over 3.5

20%

33%

Both teams scored

80%

33%

Clean sheets

20%

67%

Scores first

N/A

67%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Premiership · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Crusaders

9 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away4 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	2.40	0.75	1.67
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	2.20	1.00	1.67
Goals conceded / match	1.20	2.00	1.56
Total goals / match	3.40	3.00	3.22
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	11.1%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	25.0%	11.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 4/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Larne

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	2.33	2.67
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	16.7%
Goals scored / match	1.67	2.33	2.00
Goals conceded / match	0.33	0.67	0.50
Total goals / match	2.00	3.00	2.50
Failed to score	0.0%	33.3%	16.7%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	66.7%	66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 2	100%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	1	0
31–45	1	2
46–60	1	0
61–75	1	0
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Crusaders	Draw	Larne	How it works
Strength (Elo)	45.0%	11.8%	43.2%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	9.3%	16.9%	70.9%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.67–2.27 Model expected goals

53.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals

42.3% Both teams to score

0-2 Most likely score, at 13.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-213.6%

0-112.0%

0-310.3%

1-29.1%

1-18.0%

1-36.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Crusaders	Larne	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1509	1562	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	18	60	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1503	1491	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Crusaders	0.67	1.00	0.67	0.89
Larne	1.00	1.00	0.33	0.17

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Crusaders	0%	11%	0%	67%	22%
Larne	17%	17%	33%	17%	17%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.40 Crusaders at home, 5 matches

2.33 Larne away, 3 matches

14d Days of rest for Crusaders

21d Days of rest for Larne

— Manager of Crusaders

— Manager of Larne

1 Matches for Crusaders in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Larne in the last 14 days

7 Points for Crusaders behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

6 Points for Larne behind the leaders, and 7 above the relegation zone

2.65 League goals per match

11.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Crusaders, the right bar represents Larne.

On the ball

20 matches

3.33

corners

4.6

8.57

fouls

9.0

2.0

yellow cards

1.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Crusaders	WLWLLWWWL	1.67	1.67–1.56	1W
Larne	WWWWWD	2.67	2.00–0.50	5W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Crusaders	4	2	3	0	0
Larne	3	3	0	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Crusaders

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Larne

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.