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Crusaders
VS Scheduled Northern Ireland 26/27 Premiership · Matchday 16
Carrick
Recent matches

Crusaders

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-26 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Crusaders2–1Bangor
2026-09-19 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Linfield1–0Crusaders
2026-09-15 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Crusaders3–0Dungannon
2026-09-12 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Crusaders1–2Limavady Utd
2026-09-05 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Coleraine4–1Crusaders
2026-08-29 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Glentoran1–2Crusaders
2026-08-22 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Crusaders3–2Portadown
2026-08-15 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Crusaders2–1Ballymena Utd

Carrick

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-26 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Glentoran2–0Carrick
2026-09-19 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Carrick2–5Larne
2026-09-15 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Ballymena Utd1–1Carrick
2026-09-12 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Carrick1–3Cliftonville
2026-09-05 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Linfield1–0Carrick
2026-08-29 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Bangor0–4Carrick
2026-08-22 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Carrick0–2Coleraine
2026-08-15 Northern Ireland, Premiership 26/27 Limavady Utd1–2Carrick
Crusaders Carrick

Wins

62%
25%

Over 2.5 goals

88%
50%

Both teams scored

75%
50%

Clean sheets

12%
12%
Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Crusaders

Home · Premiership
HomeAway1st goal
4 Crusaders Coleraine 1
4 Crusaders Linfield 2
4 Crusaders Larne 3
4 · Crusaders
4 Crusaders Glentoran 5
4 Crusaders 3–0 Dungannon 6 75′ Home
4 Crusaders Cliftonville 7
4 Crusaders Carrick 8
4 Crusaders 2–1 Ballymena Utd 9 —
4 Crusaders 1–2 Limavady Utd 10 29′ Away
4 Crusaders 2–1 Bangor 11 16′ Home
4 Crusaders 3–2 Portadown 12 11′ Home

Carrick

Away · Premiership
HomeAway1st goal
1 Coleraine Carrick 8
2 Linfield 1–0 Carrick 8 55′ Home
3 Larne Carrick 8
4 Crusaders Carrick 8
5 Glentoran 2–0 Carrick 8 9′ Home
6 Dungannon Carrick 8
7 Cliftonville Carrick 8
8 · Carrick
9 Ballymena Utd 1–1 Carrick 8 46′ Home
10 Limavady Utd 1–2 Carrick 8 38′ Away
11 Bangor 0–4 Carrick 8 7′ Away
12 Portadown Carrick 8
Crusaders Home Carrick Away

Wins

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Both teams scored

Clean sheets

Scores first

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Premiership · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Crusaders

9 matches
Goals & resultsHome5 matchesAway4 matchesOverall9 matches
Points / match2.400.751.67
Draws0.0%0.0%0.0%
Goals scored / match2.201.001.67
Goals conceded / match1.202.001.56
Total goals / match3.403.003.22
Failed to score0.0%25.0%11.1%
Under 2.5 goals0.0%25.0%11.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time — —
Scores first → wins — —
Concedes first → wins — —

Scoring order known: 4/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–15——
16–30——
31–45——
46–60——
61–75——
76–90——

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Carrick

9 matches
Goals & resultsHome4 matchesAway5 matchesOverall9 matches
Points / match0.751.401.11
Draws0.0%20.0%11.1%
Goals scored / match1.001.401.22
Goals conceded / match2.501.001.67
Total goals / match3.502.402.89
Failed to score25.0%40.0%33.3%
Under 2.5 goals50.0%60.0%55.6%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time 2 of 2 100%
Scores first → wins 2 of 2 100%
Concedes first → wins 0 of 3 0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–1511
16–3001
31–4520
46–6013
61–7520
76–9010

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

ModelCrusadersDraw CarrickHow it works
Strength (Elo) 57.4% 10.6% 32.0% Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson) 53.3% 20.4% 23.6% Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average
2.19–1.39 Model expected goals
66.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals
64.5% Both teams to score
2-1 Most likely score, at 9.3%

Most likely scores

Poisson model
2-19.3%
1-18.5%
3-16.8%
2-06.7%
2-26.4%
1-06.1%
Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

MeasureCrusadersCarrick How to read it
Strength (Elo) 1509 1467 The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10 18 -41 Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength 1503 1503 Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches
Team1H scored2H scored 1H conceded2H conceded
Crusaders 0.671.00 0.670.89
Carrick 0.670.56 0.780.89

Total goals

40 matches per team
Team012 34+
Crusaders 0%11%0%67%22%
Carrick 0%22%33%11%33%
Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.40 Crusaders at home, 5 matches
1.40 Carrick away, 5 matches
48d Days of rest for Crusaders
48d Days of rest for Carrick
— Manager of Crusaders
— Manager of Carrick
0 Matches for Crusaders in the last 14 days
0 Matches for Carrick in the last 14 days
7 Points for Crusaders behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone
12 Points for Carrick behind the leaders, and 1 above the relegation zone
2.65 League goals per match
11.8% League draw rate
Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Crusaders, the right bar represents Carrick.

On the ball

20 matches
3.33
corners
5.75
8.57
fouls
10.0
2.0
yellow cards
1.83

Recent form

10 matches
TeamLast 10PPG goalsstreak
Crusaders WLWLLWWWL 1.67 1.67–1.56 1W
Carrick LLDLLWLWW 1.11 1.22–1.67 2L

At half-time

20 matches
Teamaheadlevel behindcomeback winslead lost
Crusaders4 23 00
Carrick2 43 00
Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Crusaders

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Carrick

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.