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Elversberg
VS Scheduled Germany 26/27 Bundesliga · Matchday 10
Freiburg
Recent matches

Elversberg

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-20 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Schalke 040–0Elversberg
2026-09-14 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Elversberg1–2Bayern Munich
2026-09-13 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Elversberg1–2Bayern Munich
2026-09-05 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 M'gladbach3–4Elversberg
2026-08-29 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Elversberg3–2Leverkusen

Freiburg

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-19 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Ein Frankfurt2–2Freiburg
2026-09-13 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Freiburg5–0M'gladbach
2026-09-12 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Freiburg5–0M'gladbach
2026-09-05 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Paderborn0–1Freiburg
2026-08-30 Germany, Bundesliga 26/27 Freiburg4–1Werder Bremen
2026-05-16 Germany, Bundesliga 25/26 Freiburg4–1RB Leipzig
2026-05-10 Germany, Bundesliga 25/26 Hamburg3–2Freiburg
2026-05-03 Germany, Bundesliga 25/26 Freiburg1–1Wolfsburg
Elversberg Freiburg

Wins

40%
62%

Over 2.5 goals

80%
75%

Both teams scored

80%
62%

Clean sheets

20%
38%
Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Elversberg

Home · Bundesliga
HomeAway1st goal
10 Elversberg Dortmund 1
10 Elversberg Freiburg 2
10 Elversberg 1–2 Bayern Munich 3 26′ Away
10 Elversberg 1–2 Bayern Munich 3 —
10 Elversberg RB Leipzig 4
10 Elversberg Augsburg 5
10 Elversberg 3–2 Leverkusen 6 8′ Home
10 Elversberg Ein Frankfurt 7
10 Elversberg Werder Bremen 8
10 Elversberg Mainz 9
10 · Elversberg
10 Elversberg Hoffenheim 11
10 Elversberg Schalke 04 12
10 Elversberg FC Koln 13
10 Elversberg Paderborn 14
10 Elversberg Stuttgart 15
10 Elversberg Hamburg 16
10 Elversberg Union Berlin 17
10 Elversberg M'gladbach 18

Freiburg

Away · Bundesliga
HomeAway1st goal
1 Dortmund Freiburg 2
2 · Freiburg
3 Bayern Munich Freiburg 2
4 RB Leipzig Freiburg 2
5 Augsburg Freiburg 2
6 Leverkusen Freiburg 2
7 Ein Frankfurt 2–2 Freiburg 2 10′ Home
8 Werder Bremen Freiburg 2
9 Mainz Freiburg 2
10 Elversberg Freiburg 2
11 Hoffenheim Freiburg 2
12 Schalke 04 Freiburg 2
13 FC Koln Freiburg 2
14 Paderborn 0–1 Freiburg 2 26′ Away
15 Stuttgart Freiburg 2
16 Hamburg Freiburg 2
17 Union Berlin Freiburg 2
18 M'gladbach Freiburg 2
Elversberg Home Freiburg Away

Wins

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Both teams scored

Clean sheets

Scores first

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Bundesliga · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Elversberg

5 matches
Goals & resultsHome3 matchesAway2 matchesOverall5 matches
Points / match1.002.001.40
Draws0.0%50.0%20.0%
Goals scored / match1.672.001.80
Goals conceded / match2.001.501.80
Total goals / match3.673.503.60
Failed to score0.0%50.0%20.0%
Under 2.5 goals0.0%50.0%20.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time — —
Scores first → wins — —
Concedes first → wins — —

Scoring order known: 2/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–15——
16–30——
31–45——
46–60——
61–75——
76–90——

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Freiburg

5 matches
Goals & resultsHome3 matchesAway2 matchesOverall5 matches
Points / match3.002.002.60
Draws0.0%50.0%20.0%
Goals scored / match4.671.503.40
Goals conceded / match0.331.000.60
Total goals / match5.002.504.00
Failed to score0.0%0.0%0.0%
Under 2.5 goals0.0%50.0%20.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time 1 of 1 100%
Scores first → wins 1 of 1 100%
Concedes first → wins 0 of 1 0%

Scoring order known: 2/2 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–1501
16–3010
31–4511
46–6010
61–7500
76–9000

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

ModelElversbergDraw FreiburgHow it works
Strength (Elo) 36.8% 24.6% 38.6% Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson) 22.8% 19.6% 54.1% Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average
1.43–2.31 Model expected goals
68.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals
65.9% Both teams to score
1-2 Most likely score, at 9.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model
1-29.1%
1-17.8%
1-37.0%
2-26.5%
0-26.3%
2-15.6%
Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

MeasureElversbergFreiburg How to read it
Strength (Elo) 1512 1567 The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10 0 45 Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength 1611 1524 Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share 35.2% 45.3% Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share 61.5% 46.8% The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO) 938 1030 Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion 43.8% 34.7% Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage 50.0% 68.3% Opponents' shots on target that are saved
Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches
Team1H scored2H scored 1H conceded2H conceded
Elversberg 0.751.25 0.751.00
Freiburg 0.740.95 0.530.95

Total goals

40 matches per team
Team012 34+
Elversberg 20%0%0%40%40%
Freiburg 5%12%15%22%45%
Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.00 Elversberg at home, 3 matches
1.11 Freiburg away, 9 matches
62d Days of rest for Elversberg
63d Days of rest for Freiburg
— Manager of Elversberg
— Manager of Freiburg
0 Matches for Elversberg in the last 14 days
0 Matches for Freiburg in the last 14 days
8 Points for Elversberg behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone
2 Points for Freiburg behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone
3.20 League goals per match
24.8% League draw rate
Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Elversberg, the right bar represents Freiburg.

On the ball

20 matches
12.5
shots
12.18
8.0
shots on target
4.24
64.0%
accuracy
34.8%
3.75
corners
3.95
11.5
fouls
9.16
2.0
yellow cards
1.37

Recent form

10 matches
TeamLast 10PPG goalsstreak
Elversberg DLLWW 1.40 1.80–1.80 1D
Freiburg DWWWWWLDLW 2.00 2.60–1.30 1D

At half-time

20 matches
Teamaheadlevel behindcomeback winslead lost
Elversberg1 12 10
Freiburg7 93 10
Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Elversberg

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Freiburg

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

European football: Lamine Yamal keeps Barcelona perfect, Leipzig rout Hamburg The Guardian 09-13
European football: Dortmund win again but Freiburg top after Gladbach rout The Guardian 09-12
Elversberg and ‘miracle village’ prove that Bundesliga fairytales still exist | Andy Brassell The Guardian 08-31