Head-to-head overview
3 meetings- PaderbornWins
- 0
- Draws33.3% of meetings
- 1
- MainzWins
- 2
- Goals per match
- 1.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 33.3%
- Both teams scored
- 33.3%
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 |
26/27
|
Mainz0–0Paderborn |
| 2020-02-29 |
19/20
|
Mainz2–0Paderborn |
| 2019-10-05 |
19/20
|
Paderborn1–2Mainz |
Recent matches
Paderborn
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 |
26/27
|
Paderborn3–1Hoffenheim |
| 2026-09-13 |
26/27
|
Dortmund3–0Paderborn |
| 2026-09-12 |
26/27
|
Dortmund3–0Paderborn |
| 2026-09-05 |
26/27
|
Paderborn0–1Freiburg |
| 2026-08-29 |
26/27
|
Mainz0–0Paderborn |
| 2020-06-27 |
19/20
|
Ein Frankfurt3–2Paderborn |
| 2020-06-20 |
19/20
|
Paderborn1–3M'gladbach |
| 2020-06-16 |
19/20
|
Union Berlin1–0Paderborn |
Mainz
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 |
26/27
|
M'gladbach3–4Mainz |
| 2026-09-13 |
26/27
|
Mainz1–3Ein Frankfurt |
| 2026-09-12 |
26/27
|
Mainz1–3Ein Frankfurt |
| 2026-09-06 |
26/27
|
Hamburg0–5Mainz |
| 2026-08-29 |
26/27
|
Mainz0–0Paderborn |
| 2026-05-16 |
25/26
|
Heidenheim0–2Mainz |
| 2026-05-10 |
25/26
|
Mainz1–3Union Berlin |
| 2026-05-03 |
25/26
|
St Pauli1–2Mainz |
Paderborn
Mainz
Wins
12%
50%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
75%
Both teams scored
38%
62%
Clean sheets
12%
38%
Home & away results
This season · 26/27
Paderborn
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Paderborn | Dortmund | 1 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | 0–1 | Freiburg | 2 | 26′ Away |
| 14 | Paderborn | Bayern Munich | 3 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | RB Leipzig | 4 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Augsburg | 5 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Leverkusen | 6 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Werder Bremen | 8 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Elversberg | 10 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | 3–1 | Hoffenheim | 11 | 29′ Home |
| 14 | Paderborn | Schalke 04 | 12 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | FC Koln | 13 | ||
| 14 · Paderborn | |||||
| 14 | Paderborn | Stuttgart | 15 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Hamburg | 16 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Union Berlin | 17 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | M'gladbach | 18 | ||
Mainz
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 2 | Freiburg | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 3 | Bayern Munich | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 4 | RB Leipzig | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 5 | Augsburg | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 6 | Leverkusen | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 8 | Werder Bremen | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 9 · Mainz | |||||
| 10 | Elversberg | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 11 | Hoffenheim | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 12 | Schalke 04 | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 13 | FC Koln | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 14 | Paderborn | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 15 | Stuttgart | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 16 | Hamburg | 0–5 | Mainz | 9 | 19′ Away |
| 17 | Union Berlin | Mainz | 9 | ||
| 18 | M'gladbach | 3–4 | Mainz | 9 | 11′ Home |
Paderborn Home
Mainz Away
Wins
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
Both teams scored
Clean sheets
Scores first
Season analysis
Home, away & overall
Bundesliga · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.
Paderborn
| Goals & results | Home2 matches | Away3 matches | Overall5 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 1.50 | 0.33 | 0.80 |
| Draws | 0.0% | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Goals scored / match | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Total goals / match | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Failed to score | 50.0% | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 1 of 11 of 1 | 100%100% |
| Scores first → wins | 1 of 11 of 1 | 100%100% |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 10 of 3 | 0%0% |
Scoring order known: 2/2 home.Scoring order known: 5/5 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Home matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 0 | 0 |
| 16–30 | 1 | 1 |
| 31–45 | 1 | 0 |
| 46–60 | 0 | 1 |
| 61–75 | 1 | 0 |
| 76–90 | 0 | 0 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Mainz
| Goals & results | Home3 matches | Away2 matches | Overall5 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 0.33 | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| Draws | 33.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Goals scored / match | 0.67 | 4.50 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| Total goals / match | 2.67 | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Failed to score | 33.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 1 of 1— | 100%— |
| Scores first → wins | 1 of 1— | 100%— |
| Concedes first → wins | 1 of 1— | 100%— |
Scoring order known: 2/2 away.Scoring order known: 4/5 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Away matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 0 | 1 |
| 16–30 | 2 | 0 |
| 31–45 | 2 | 0 |
| 46–60 | 1 | 1 |
| 61–75 | 0 | 0 |
| 76–90 | 4 | 1 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Two perspectives
What each model says about this match
The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.
| Model | Paderborn | Draw | Mainz | How it works |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 39.1% | 24.6% | 36.3% | Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage |
| Goals (Poisson) | 8.9% | 15.4% | 71.7% | Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average |
0.72–2.48
Model expected goals
58.0%
Probability of over 2.5 goals
45.1%
Both teams to score
0-2
Most likely score, at 12.5%
Most likely scores
0-212.5%
0-310.3%
0-110.1%
1-29.0%
1-37.5%
1-17.3%
Strength and dominance
Team strength and finishing efficiency
Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.
| Measure | Paderborn | Mainz | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 1476 | 1509 | The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality. |
| Change over the last 10 | 85 | -20 | Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches |
| Opposition strength | 1538 | 1526 | Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule. |
| Shot share | 47.0% | 52.6% | Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents. |
| Shots on target share | 37.7% | 54.0% | The same measure, counting only shots on target |
| Finishing and saving index (PDO) | 873 | 1038 | Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation. |
| Conversion | 24.6% | 31.8% | Shots on target converted into goals |
| Save percentage | 62.8% | 72.0% | Opponents' shots on target that are saved |
Goals
When teams score and how matches unfold
Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.
Goals by half
| Team | 1H scored | 2H scored | 1H conceded | 2H conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 0.26 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| Mainz | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.58 | 0.84 |
Total goals
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 8% | 10% | 23% | 23% | 36% |
| Mainz | 5% | 12% | 25% | 18% | 40% |
Context
Coming into the match
Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.
0.44
Paderborn at home, 9 matches
2.30
Mainz away, 10 matches
125d
Days of rest for Paderborn
126d
Days of rest for Mainz
—
Manager of Paderborn
—
Manager of Mainz
0
Matches for Paderborn in the last 14 days
0
Matches for Mainz in the last 14 days
11
Points for Paderborn behind the leaders, and 1 above the relegation zone
8
Points for Mainz behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone
3.20
League goals per match
24.8%
League draw rate
Statistics
Side-by-side comparison
Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Paderborn, the right bar represents Mainz.
On the ball
12.82
13.76
shots
3.35
5.18
shots on target
26.1%
37.6%
accuracy
4.63
5.0
corners
11.42
10.79
fouls
2.65
1.89
yellow cards
Recent form
| Team | Last 10 | PPG | goals | streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | WLLLDLLLLD | 0.50 | 0.80–2.10 | 1W |
| Mainz | WLLWDWLWLD | 1.40 | 2.00–1.80 | 1W |
At half-time
| Team | ahead | level | behind | comeback wins | lead lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Mainz | 9 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Squads
Injuries and suspensions
0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.
Paderborn
No absences reported.
Mainz
No absences reported.
Newsroom
News about both teams
European football: Dortmund win again but Freiburg top after Gladbach rout
The Guardian
09-12