Toulouse

Toulouse

VS Scheduled Saturday 1 May 202701:00

France 26/27 Ligue 1 · Matchday 30

Marseille

Head-to-head overview

14 meetings

ToulouseWins: 0
Draws21.4% of meetings: 3
MarseilleWins: 11

Goals per match: 3.50
Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%
Both teams scored: 57.1%

Date	Season	Match
2026-03-07	25/26	Toulouse0–1Marseille
2025-11-29	25/26	Marseille2–2Toulouse
2025-04-06	24/25	Marseille3–2Toulouse
2024-08-31	24/25	Toulouse1–3Marseille
2024-04-21	23/24	Toulouse2–2Marseille
2023-09-17	23/24	Marseille0–0Toulouse
2023-02-19	22/23	Toulouse2–3Marseille
2022-12-29	22/23	Marseille6–1Toulouse
2020-02-08	19/20	Marseille1–0Toulouse
2019-11-24	19/20	Toulouse0–2Marseille
2019-05-18	18/19	Toulouse2–5Marseille
2018-08-10	18/19	Marseille4–0Toulouse
2018-03-11	17/18	Toulouse1–2Marseille
2017-09-24	17/18	Marseille2–0Toulouse

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Toulouse3–2Le Havre
2026-09-13	26/27	Lorient2–2Toulouse
2026-09-12	26/27	Lorient2–2Toulouse
2026-09-03	26/27	Toulouse0–1Lille
2026-08-29	26/27	Brest2–2Toulouse
2026-08-22	26/27	Toulouse0–2Lyon
2026-05-17	25/26	Nantes0–0Toulouse
2026-05-10	25/26	Toulouse2–1Lyon

Marseille

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Marseille1–2Paris SG
2026-09-11	26/27	Rennes1–0Marseille
2026-09-06	26/27	Marseille2–3Paris FC
2026-08-30	26/27	Monaco2–0Marseille
2026-08-21	26/27	Marseille4–0Strasbourg
2026-05-17	25/26	Marseille3–1Rennes
2026-05-10	25/26	Le Havre0–1Marseille
2026-05-02	25/26	Nantes3–0Marseille

Toulouse Marseille

Wins

25%

38%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

Both teams scored

62%

38%

Clean sheets

12%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Toulouse

Home · Ligue 1

Home			Away		1st goal
12	Toulouse		Monaco	1
12	Toulouse	0–1	Lille	2	73′ Away
12	Toulouse	0–2	Lyon	3	68′ Away
12	Toulouse		Paris FC	4
12	Toulouse		Paris SG	5
12	Toulouse		Rennes	6
12	Toulouse		Auxerre	7
12	Toulouse		Angers	8
12	Toulouse		Strasbourg	9
12	Toulouse		Le Mans	10
12	Toulouse		Lorient	11
12 · Toulouse
12	Toulouse		Lens	13
12	Toulouse		Brest	14
12	Toulouse		Nice	15
12	Toulouse		Troyes	16
12	Toulouse		Marseille	17
12	Toulouse	3–2	Le Havre	18	49′ Home

Marseille

Away · Ligue 1

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Monaco	2–0	Marseille	17	13′ Home
2	Lille		Marseille	17
3	Lyon		Marseille	17
4	Paris FC		Marseille	17
5	Paris SG		Marseille	17
6	Rennes	1–0	Marseille	17	52′ Home
7	Auxerre		Marseille	17
8	Angers		Marseille	17
9	Strasbourg		Marseille	17
10	Le Mans		Marseille	17
11	Lorient		Marseille	17
12	Toulouse		Marseille	17
13	Lens		Marseille	17
14	Brest		Marseille	17
15	Nice		Marseille	17
16	Troyes		Marseille	17
17 · Marseille
18	Le Havre		Marseille	17

Toulouse Home Marseille Away

Wins

33%

0%

Over 1.5

67%

50%

Over 2.5

33%

0%

Over 3.5

33%

0%

Both teams scored

33%

0%

Clean sheets

0%

Scores first

33%

0%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Ligue 1 · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Toulouse

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	1.00	1.00	1.00
Draws	0.0%	100.0%	50.0%
Goals scored / match	1.00	2.00	1.50
Goals conceded / match	1.67	2.00	1.83
Total goals / match	2.67	4.00	3.33
Failed to score	66.7%	0.0%	33.3%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	0.0%	33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	0
31–45	0	0
46–60	2	0
61–75	0	3
76–90	1	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Marseille

5 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away2 matches	Overall5 matches
Points / match	1.00	0.00	0.60
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	2.33	0.00	1.40
Goals conceded / match	1.67	1.50	1.60
Total goals / match	4.00	1.50	3.00
Failed to score	0.0%	100.0%	40.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	100.0%	40.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 0	—
Scores first → wins	0 of 0	—
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 2/2 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	0	0
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	2
61–75	0	0
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Toulouse	Draw	Marseille	How it works
Strength (Elo)	38.4%	24.4%	37.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	29.5%	23.7%	45.7%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.32–1.71 Model expected goals

57.2% Probability of over 2.5 goals

59.2% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 10.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-110.9%

1-29.3%

0-18.3%

2-17.2%

0-27.1%

1-06.4%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Toulouse	Marseille	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1506	1541	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	7	-72	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1539	1539	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	50.6%	56.7%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	47.7%	56.8%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	898	849	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	24.3%	26.0%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	65.4%	58.9%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Toulouse	0.53	0.68	0.79	0.89
Marseille	0.40	0.90	0.45	1.20

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Toulouse	8%	25%	12%	18%	38%
Marseille	0%	25%	12%	20%	42%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.22 Toulouse at home, 9 matches

0.70 Marseille away, 10 matches

224d Days of rest for Toulouse

223d Days of rest for Marseille

— Manager of Toulouse

— Manager of Marseille

0 Matches for Toulouse in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Marseille in the last 14 days

8 Points for Toulouse behind the leaders, and 1 above the relegation zone

11 Points for Marseille behind the leaders, and -2 above the relegation zone

2.86 League goals per match

23.1% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Toulouse, the right bar represents Marseille.

On the ball

20 matches

13.41

shots

15.61

4.35

shots on target

5.33

32.5%

accuracy

34.2%

4.37

corners

5.1

14.53

fouls

12.35

2.28

yellow cards

2.6

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Toulouse	WDDLDLDWWD	1.40	1.50–1.50	1W
Marseille	LLLLWWWLDL	1.00	1.20–1.50	4L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Toulouse	3	9	7	0	1
Marseille	6	8	6	1	3

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Toulouse

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Marseille

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.