Cottbus

Cottbus

VS Scheduled Friday 16 Oct 202617:30

Germany 26/27 2. Bundesliga · Matchday 8

Nurnberg

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Cottbus1–1St Pauli
2026-09-14	26/27	Karlsruhe0–3Cottbus
2026-09-13	26/27	Karlsruhe0–3Cottbus
2026-09-05	26/27	Wolfsburg4–4Cottbus
2026-08-29	26/27	Cottbus3–4Greuther Furth
2026-08-16	26/27	Bielefeld3–0Cottbus
2026-08-09	26/27	Cottbus3–1Hannover

Nurnberg

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Karlsruhe0–1Nurnberg
2026-09-11	26/27	Nurnberg2–1Hannover
2026-09-05	26/27	Holstein Kiel2–2Nurnberg
2026-08-29	26/27	Nurnberg4–1Bielefeld
2026-08-15	26/27	Greuther Furth2–4Nurnberg
2026-08-09	26/27	Nurnberg3–0Dresden
2026-05-17	25/26	Hannover3–3Nurnberg
2026-05-09	25/26	Nurnberg3–0Schalke 04

Cottbus Nurnberg

Wins

43%

75%

Over 2.5 goals

86%

88%

Both teams scored

57%

62%

Clean sheets

29%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Cottbus

Home · 2. Bundesliga

Home			Away		1st goal
6	Cottbus		Hertha	1
6	Cottbus		Nurnberg	2
6	Cottbus		Heidenheim	3
6	Cottbus		Magdeburg	4
6	Cottbus		Wolfsburg	5
6 · Cottbus
6	Cottbus		Kaiserslautern	7
6	Cottbus	1–1	St Pauli	8	37′ Home
6	Cottbus		Bochum	9
6	Cottbus	3–4	Greuther Furth	10	—
6	Cottbus	3–1	Hannover	11	14′ Home
6	Cottbus		Osnabruck	12
6	Cottbus		Braunschweig	13
6	Cottbus		Bielefeld	14
6	Cottbus		Dresden	15
6	Cottbus		Karlsruhe	16
6	Cottbus		Holstein Kiel	17
6	Cottbus		Darmstadt	18

Nurnberg

Away · 2. Bundesliga

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Hertha		Nurnberg	2
2 · Nurnberg
3	Heidenheim		Nurnberg	2
4	Magdeburg		Nurnberg	2
5	Wolfsburg		Nurnberg	2
6	Cottbus		Nurnberg	2
7	Kaiserslautern		Nurnberg	2
8	St Pauli		Nurnberg	2
9	Bochum		Nurnberg	2
10	Greuther Furth	2–4	Nurnberg	2	22′ Home
11	Hannover		Nurnberg	2
12	Osnabruck		Nurnberg	2
13	Braunschweig		Nurnberg	2
14	Bielefeld		Nurnberg	2
15	Dresden		Nurnberg	2
16	Karlsruhe	0–1	Nurnberg	2	30′ Away
17	Holstein Kiel	2–2	Nurnberg	2	41′ Away
18	Darmstadt		Nurnberg	2

Cottbus Home Nurnberg Away

Wins

33%

67%

Over 1.5

100%

67%

Over 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

67%

Both teams scored

100%

67%

Clean sheets

0%

33%

Scores first

N/A

67%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

2. Bundesliga · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Cottbus

7 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away4 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	1.33	1.75	1.57
Draws	33.3%	25.0%	28.6%
Goals scored / match	2.33	2.50	2.43
Goals conceded / match	2.00	1.75	1.86
Total goals / match	4.33	4.25	4.29
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	0.0%	14.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 2/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Nurnberg

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	2.33	2.67
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	16.7%
Goals scored / match	3.00	2.33	2.67
Goals conceded / match	0.67	1.33	1.00
Total goals / match	3.67	3.67	3.67
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	33.3%	16.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	1 of 2	50%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	2	1
31–45	2	2
46–60	2	1
61–75	1	0
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Cottbus	Draw	Nurnberg	How it works
Strength (Elo)	37.3%	24.9%	37.8%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	21.8%	17.4%	53.8%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.71–2.77 Model expected goals

75.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

71.0% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 7.4%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-27.4%

1-36.9%

2-26.4%

2-35.9%

1-15.4%

1-44.8%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Cottbus	Nurnberg	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1526	1574	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	10	84	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1506	1503	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	45.8%	49.3%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	39.6%	53.4%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1113	1137	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	52.6%	43.0%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	58.6%	70.7%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Cottbus	0.83	1.50	1.17	1.00
Nurnberg	1.25	0.75	0.60	0.55

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Cottbus	0%	0%	14%	43%	43%
Nurnberg	2%	15%	25%	35%	22%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.33 Cottbus at home, 3 matches

1.36 Nurnberg away, 11 matches

26d Days of rest for Cottbus

27d Days of rest for Nurnberg

— Manager of Cottbus

— Manager of Nurnberg

0 Matches for Cottbus in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Nurnberg in the last 14 days

10 Points for Cottbus behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

5 Points for Nurnberg behind the leaders, and 11 above the relegation zone

2.98 League goals per match

25.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Cottbus, the right bar represents Nurnberg.

On the ball

20 matches

16.5

shots

13.17

4.75

shots on target

4.78

28.8%

accuracy

36.3%

7.83

corners

4.7

13.33

fouls

11.45

1.83

yellow cards

2.1

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Cottbus	DWWDLLW	1.57	2.43–1.86	1D
Nurnberg	WWDWWWDWDW	2.40	2.40–1.00	2W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Cottbus	2	2	2	0	1
Nurnberg	10	8	2	0	3

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Cottbus

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Nurnberg

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.