Milan

Milan

VS Scheduled Sunday 18 Oct 202617:00

Italy 26/27 Serie A · Matchday 7

Atalanta

Head-to-head overview

18 meetings

MilanWins: 5
Draws33.3% of meetings: 6
AtalantaWins: 7

Goals per match: 2.94
Over 2.5 goals: 44.4%
Both teams scored: 61.1%

Date	Season	Match
2026-05-10	25/26	Milan2–3Atalanta
2025-10-28	25/26	Atalanta1–1Milan
2025-04-20	24/25	Milan0–1Atalanta
2024-12-06	24/25	Atalanta2–1Milan
2024-02-25	23/24	Milan1–1Atalanta
2023-12-09	23/24	Atalanta3–2Milan
2023-02-26	22/23	Milan2–0Atalanta
2022-08-21	22/23	Atalanta1–1Milan
2022-05-15	21/22	Milan2–0Atalanta
2021-10-03	21/22	Atalanta2–3Milan
2021-05-23	20/21	Atalanta0–2Milan
2021-01-23	20/21	Milan0–3Atalanta
2020-07-24	19/20	Milan1–1Atalanta
2019-12-22	19/20	Atalanta5–0Milan
2019-02-16	18/19	Atalanta1–3Milan
2018-09-23	18/19	Milan2–2Atalanta
2018-05-13	17/18	Atalanta1–1Milan
2017-12-23	17/18	Milan0–2Atalanta

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Milan3–0Lecce
2026-09-13	26/27	Lazio2–2Milan
2026-09-12	26/27	Lazio2–2Milan
2026-09-06	26/27	Juventus1–1Milan
2026-08-28	26/27	Milan2–0Venezia
2026-08-23	26/27	Torino1–2Milan
2026-05-24	25/26	Milan1–2Cagliari
2026-05-17	25/26	Genoa1–2Milan

Atalanta

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Juventus2–0Atalanta
2026-09-13	26/27	Atalanta1–2Cagliari
2026-09-12	26/27	Atalanta1–2Cagliari
2026-09-05	26/27	Roma2–1Atalanta
2026-08-31	26/27	Atalanta1–0Bologna
2026-08-23	26/27	Atalanta2–1Sassuolo
2026-05-22	25/26	Fiorentina1–1Atalanta
2026-05-17	25/26	Atalanta0–1Bologna

Milan Atalanta

Wins

50%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

50%

Both teams scored

75%

62%

Clean sheets

25%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Milan

Home · Serie A

Home			Away		1st goal
5	Milan		Cagliari	1
5	Milan		Lazio	2
5	Milan		Roma	3
5	Milan		Inter	4
5 · Milan
5	Milan		Frosinone	6
5	Milan		Juventus	7
5	Milan		Como	8
5	Milan		Napoli	9
5	Milan		Sassuolo	10
5	Milan	3–0	Lecce	11	14′ Home
5	Milan		Atalanta	12
5	Milan		Udinese	13
5	Milan		Torino	14
5	Milan		Parma	15
5	Milan		Monza	16
5	Milan		Fiorentina	17
5	Milan		Bologna	18
5	Milan		Genoa	19
5	Milan	2–0	Venezia	20	—

Atalanta

Away · Serie A

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Cagliari		Atalanta	12
2	Lazio		Atalanta	12
3	Roma	2–1	Atalanta	12	47′ Away
4	Inter		Atalanta	12
5	Milan		Atalanta	12
6	Frosinone		Atalanta	12
7	Juventus	2–0	Atalanta	12	28′ Home
8	Como		Atalanta	12
9	Napoli		Atalanta	12
10	Sassuolo		Atalanta	12
11	Lecce		Atalanta	12
12 · Atalanta
13	Udinese		Atalanta	12
14	Torino		Atalanta	12
15	Parma		Atalanta	12
16	Monza		Atalanta	12
17	Fiorentina		Atalanta	12
18	Bologna		Atalanta	12
19	Genoa		Atalanta	12
20	Venezia		Atalanta	12

Milan Home Atalanta Away

Wins

100%

0%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

0%

Both teams scored

0%

50%

Clean sheets

100%

0%

Scores first

100%

50%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Serie A · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Milan

6 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away4 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.50	2.00
Draws	0.0%	75.0%	50.0%
Goals scored / match	2.50	1.75	2.00
Goals conceded / match	0.00	1.50	1.00
Total goals / match	2.50	3.25	3.00
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	25.0%	33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 2/2 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	0
16–30	—	0
31–45	—	0
46–60	—	0
61–75	—	0
76–90	—	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Atalanta

6 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away2 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	1.50	0.00	1.00
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	1.25	0.50	1.00
Goals conceded / match	1.25	2.00	1.50
Total goals / match	2.50	2.50	2.50
Failed to score	0.0%	50.0%	16.7%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	50.0%	33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 2/2 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	1
31–45	0	0
46–60	1	0
61–75	0	0
76–90	0	3

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Milan	Draw	Atalanta	How it works
Strength (Elo)	46.5%	25.3%	28.2%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	34.8%	28.0%	36.9%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.15–1.20 Model expected goals

41.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

47.5% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 13.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-113.2%

0-111.4%

1-011.0%

0-09.6%

1-27.9%

2-17.6%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Milan	Atalanta	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1607	1551	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-38	-69	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1533	1543	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	52.0%	49.2%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	49.2%	49.4%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	993	1072	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	28.1%	30.3%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	71.2%	76.9%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved