Milan

Milan

VS Scheduled Sunday 6 Dec 202619:45

Italy 26/27 Serie A · Matchday 14

Parma

Head-to-head overview

10 meetings

MilanWins: 5
Draws30.0% of meetings: 3
ParmaWins: 2

Goals per match: 3.10
Over 2.5 goals: 70.0%
Both teams scored: 80.0%

Date	Season	Match
2026-02-22	25/26	Milan0–1Parma
2025-11-08	25/26	Parma2–2Milan
2025-01-26	24/25	Milan3–2Parma
2024-08-24	24/25	Parma2–1Milan
2021-04-10	20/21	Parma1–3Milan
2020-12-13	20/21	Milan2–2Parma
2020-07-15	19/20	Milan3–1Parma
2019-12-01	19/20	Parma0–1Milan
2019-04-20	18/19	Parma1–1Milan
2018-12-02	18/19	Milan2–1Parma

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Milan3–0Lecce
2026-09-13	26/27	Lazio2–2Milan
2026-09-12	26/27	Lazio2–2Milan
2026-09-06	26/27	Juventus1–1Milan
2026-08-28	26/27	Milan2–0Venezia
2026-08-23	26/27	Torino1–2Milan
2026-05-24	25/26	Milan1–2Cagliari
2026-05-17	25/26	Genoa1–2Milan

Parma

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Parma2–1Genoa
2026-09-14	26/27	Como2–1Parma
2026-09-06	26/27	Parma1–1Monza
2026-08-29	26/27	Juventus2–0Parma
2026-08-22	26/27	Parma0–1Cagliari
2026-05-24	25/26	Parma1–0Sassuolo
2026-05-17	25/26	Como1–0Parma
2026-05-10	25/26	Parma2–3Roma

Milan Parma

Wins

50%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

38%

Both teams scored

75%

50%

Clean sheets

25%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Milan

Home · Serie A

Home			Away		1st goal
5	Milan		Cagliari	1
5	Milan		Lazio	2
5	Milan		Roma	3
5	Milan		Inter	4
5 · Milan
5	Milan		Frosinone	6
5	Milan		Juventus	7
5	Milan		Como	8
5	Milan		Napoli	9
5	Milan		Sassuolo	10
5	Milan	3–0	Lecce	11	14′ Home
5	Milan		Atalanta	12
5	Milan		Udinese	13
5	Milan		Torino	14
5	Milan		Parma	15
5	Milan		Monza	16
5	Milan		Fiorentina	17
5	Milan		Bologna	18
5	Milan		Genoa	19
5	Milan	2–0	Venezia	20	—

Parma

Away · Serie A

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Cagliari		Parma	15
2	Lazio		Parma	15
3	Roma		Parma	15
4	Inter		Parma	15
5	Milan		Parma	15
6	Frosinone		Parma	15
7	Juventus	2–0	Parma	15	62′ Home
8	Como	2–1	Parma	15	23′ Home
9	Napoli		Parma	15
10	Sassuolo		Parma	15
11	Lecce		Parma	15
12	Atalanta		Parma	15
13	Udinese		Parma	15
14	Torino		Parma	15
15 · Parma
16	Monza		Parma	15
17	Fiorentina		Parma	15
18	Bologna		Parma	15
19	Genoa		Parma	15
20	Venezia		Parma	15

Milan Home Parma Away

Wins

100%

0%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

0%

Both teams scored

0%

50%

Clean sheets

100%

0%

Scores first

100%

0%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Serie A · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Milan

6 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away4 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.50	2.00
Draws	0.0%	75.0%	50.0%
Goals scored / match	2.50	1.75	2.00
Goals conceded / match	0.00	1.50	1.00
Total goals / match	2.50	3.25	3.00
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	25.0%	33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 2/2 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	0
16–30	—	0
31–45	—	0
46–60	—	0
61–75	—	0
76–90	—	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Parma

5 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away2 matches	Overall5 matches
Points / match	1.33	0.00	0.80
Draws	33.3%	0.0%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.50	0.80
Goals conceded / match	1.00	2.00	1.40
Total goals / match	2.00	2.50	2.20
Failed to score	33.3%	50.0%	40.0%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	50.0%	60.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 0	—
Scores first → wins	0 of 0	—
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 2/2 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	1
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	0
61–75	0	1
76–90	1	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Milan	Draw	Parma	How it works
Strength (Elo)	59.2%	19.7%	21.1%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	42.0%	31.2%	26.7%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.10–0.81 Model expected goals

30.0% Probability of over 2.5 goals

37.1% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 16.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-016.2%

0-014.7%

1-113.2%

0-112.0%

2-09.0%

2-17.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Milan	Parma	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1607	1458	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-38	-6	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1533	1533	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	52.0%	40.7%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	49.2%	38.7%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	993	1029	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	28.1%	29.2%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	71.2%	73.7%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved