Roma

Roma

VS Scheduled Saturday 9 Jan 202717:00

Italy 26/27 Serie A · Matchday 19

Milan

Head-to-head overview

18 meetings

RomaWins: 3
Draws33.3% of meetings: 6
MilanWins: 9

Goals per match: 2.89
Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%
Both teams scored: 77.8%

Date	Season	Match
2026-01-25	25/26	Roma1–1Milan
2025-11-02	25/26	Milan1–0Roma
2025-05-18	24/25	Roma3–1Milan
2024-12-29	24/25	Milan1–1Roma
2024-01-14	23/24	Milan3–1Roma
2023-09-01	23/24	Roma1–2Milan
2023-04-29	22/23	Roma1–1Milan
2023-01-08	22/23	Milan2–2Roma
2022-01-06	21/22	Milan3–1Roma
2021-10-31	21/22	Roma1–2Milan
2021-02-28	20/21	Roma1–2Milan
2020-10-26	20/21	Milan3–3Roma
2020-06-28	19/20	Milan2–0Roma
2019-10-27	19/20	Roma2–1Milan
2019-02-03	18/19	Roma1–1Milan
2018-08-31	18/19	Milan2–1Roma
2018-02-25	17/18	Roma0–2Milan
2017-10-01	17/18	Milan0–2Roma

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Roma2–2Inter
2026-09-14	26/27	Torino0–2Roma
2026-09-05	26/27	Roma2–1Atalanta
2026-08-31	26/27	Lecce0–4Roma
2026-08-24	26/27	Roma4–0Fiorentina
2026-05-24	25/26	Verona0–2Roma
2026-05-17	25/26	Roma2–0Lazio
2026-05-10	25/26	Parma2–3Roma

Milan

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Milan3–0Lecce
2026-09-13	26/27	Lazio2–2Milan
2026-09-12	26/27	Lazio2–2Milan
2026-09-06	26/27	Juventus1–1Milan
2026-08-28	26/27	Milan2–0Venezia
2026-08-23	26/27	Torino1–2Milan
2026-05-24	25/26	Milan1–2Cagliari
2026-05-17	25/26	Genoa1–2Milan

Roma Milan

Wins

88%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

75%

Both teams scored

38%

75%

Clean sheets

62%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Roma

Home · Serie A

Home			Away		1st goal
3	Roma		Cagliari	1
3	Roma		Lazio	2
3 · Roma
3	Roma	2–2	Inter	4	6′ Home
3	Roma		Milan	5
3	Roma		Frosinone	6
3	Roma		Juventus	7
3	Roma		Como	8
3	Roma		Napoli	9
3	Roma		Sassuolo	10
3	Roma		Lecce	11
3	Roma	2–1	Atalanta	12	47′ Away
3	Roma		Udinese	13
3	Roma		Torino	14
3	Roma		Parma	15
3	Roma		Monza	16
3	Roma	4–0	Fiorentina	17	27′ Home
3	Roma		Bologna	18
3	Roma		Genoa	19
3	Roma		Venezia	20

Milan

Away · Serie A

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Cagliari		Milan	5
2	Lazio	2–2	Milan	5	10′ Home
2	Lazio	2–2	Milan	5	—
3	Roma		Milan	5
4	Inter		Milan	5
5 · Milan
6	Frosinone		Milan	5
7	Juventus	1–1	Milan	5	68′ Away
8	Como		Milan	5
9	Napoli		Milan	5
10	Sassuolo		Milan	5
11	Lecce		Milan	5
12	Atalanta		Milan	5
13	Udinese		Milan	5
14	Torino	1–2	Milan	5	64′ Away
15	Parma		Milan	5
16	Monza		Milan	5
17	Fiorentina		Milan	5
18	Bologna		Milan	5
19	Genoa		Milan	5
20	Venezia		Milan	5

Roma Home Milan Away

Wins

67%

25%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

100%

75%

Over 3.5

67%

50%

Both teams scored

67%

100%

Clean sheets

33%

0%

Scores first

67%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Serie A · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Roma

5 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away2 matches	Overall5 matches
Points / match	2.33	3.00	2.60
Draws	33.3%	0.0%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	2.67	3.00	2.80
Goals conceded / match	1.00	0.00	0.60
Total goals / match	3.67	3.00	3.40
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	50.0%	20.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 2	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 2	50%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 3/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	0
16–30	1	0
31–45	1	0
46–60	2	2
61–75	0	0
76–90	3	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Milan

6 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away4 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.50	2.00
Draws	0.0%	75.0%	50.0%
Goals scored / match	2.50	1.75	2.00
Goals conceded / match	0.00	1.50	1.00
Total goals / match	2.50	3.25	3.00
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	25.0%	33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Roma	Draw	Milan	How it works
Strength (Elo)	47.1%	25.1%	27.8%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	58.5%	21.0%	18.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

2.03–1.04 Model expected goals

57.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

55.0% Both teams to score

2-1 Most likely score, at 9.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

2-19.9%

1-19.8%

2-09.6%

1-09.4%

3-16.7%

3-06.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Roma	Milan	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1668	1607	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	43	-38	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1539	1533	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	61.3%	52.0%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	59.0%	49.2%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1175	993	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	45.7%	28.1%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	71.9%	71.2%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved