Parma

Parma

VS Scheduled Sunday 9 May 202701:00

Italy 26/27 Serie A · Matchday 35

Milan

Head-to-head overview

10 meetings

ParmaWins: 2
Draws30.0% of meetings: 3
MilanWins: 5

Goals per match: 3.10
Over 2.5 goals: 70.0%
Both teams scored: 80.0%

Date	Season	Match
2026-02-22	25/26	Milan0–1Parma
2025-11-08	25/26	Parma2–2Milan
2025-01-26	24/25	Milan3–2Parma
2024-08-24	24/25	Parma2–1Milan
2021-04-10	20/21	Parma1–3Milan
2020-12-13	20/21	Milan2–2Parma
2020-07-15	19/20	Milan3–1Parma
2019-12-01	19/20	Parma0–1Milan
2019-04-20	18/19	Parma1–1Milan
2018-12-02	18/19	Milan2–1Parma

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Parma2–1Genoa
2026-09-14	26/27	Como2–1Parma
2026-09-06	26/27	Parma1–1Monza
2026-08-29	26/27	Juventus2–0Parma
2026-08-22	26/27	Parma0–1Cagliari
2026-05-24	25/26	Parma1–0Sassuolo
2026-05-17	25/26	Como1–0Parma
2026-05-10	25/26	Parma2–3Roma

Milan

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Milan3–0Lecce
2026-09-13	26/27	Lazio2–2Milan
2026-09-12	26/27	Lazio2–2Milan
2026-09-06	26/27	Juventus1–1Milan
2026-08-28	26/27	Milan2–0Venezia
2026-08-23	26/27	Torino1–2Milan
2026-05-24	25/26	Milan1–2Cagliari
2026-05-17	25/26	Genoa1–2Milan

Parma Milan

Wins

25%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

75%

Both teams scored

50%

75%

Clean sheets

12%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Parma

Home · Serie A

Home			Away		1st goal
15	Parma	0–1	Cagliari	1	79′ Away
15	Parma		Lazio	2
15	Parma		Roma	3
15	Parma		Inter	4
15	Parma		Milan	5
15	Parma		Frosinone	6
15	Parma		Juventus	7
15	Parma		Como	8
15	Parma		Napoli	9
15	Parma		Sassuolo	10
15	Parma		Lecce	11
15	Parma		Atalanta	12
15	Parma		Udinese	13
15	Parma		Torino	14
15 · Parma
15	Parma	1–1	Monza	16	38′ Away
15	Parma		Fiorentina	17
15	Parma		Bologna	18
15	Parma	2–1	Genoa	19	38′ Home
15	Parma		Venezia	20

Milan

Away · Serie A

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Cagliari		Milan	5
2	Lazio	2–2	Milan	5	10′ Home
2	Lazio	2–2	Milan	5	—
3	Roma		Milan	5
4	Inter		Milan	5
5 · Milan
6	Frosinone		Milan	5
7	Juventus	1–1	Milan	5	68′ Away
8	Como		Milan	5
9	Napoli		Milan	5
10	Sassuolo		Milan	5
11	Lecce		Milan	5
12	Atalanta		Milan	5
13	Udinese		Milan	5
14	Torino	1–2	Milan	5	64′ Away
15	Parma		Milan	5
16	Monza		Milan	5
17	Fiorentina		Milan	5
18	Bologna		Milan	5
19	Genoa		Milan	5
20	Venezia		Milan	5

Parma Home Milan Away

Wins

33%

25%

Over 1.5

67%

100%

Over 2.5

33%

75%

Over 3.5

0%

50%

Both teams scored

67%

100%

Clean sheets

0%

Scores first

33%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Serie A · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Parma

5 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away2 matches	Overall5 matches
Points / match	1.33	0.00	0.80
Draws	33.3%	0.0%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.50	0.80
Goals conceded / match	1.00	2.00	1.40
Total goals / match	2.00	2.50	2.20
Failed to score	33.3%	50.0%	40.0%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	50.0%	60.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	0
31–45	1	1
46–60	1	0
61–75	0	1
76–90	1	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Milan

6 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away4 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.50	2.00
Draws	0.0%	75.0%	50.0%
Goals scored / match	2.50	1.75	2.00
Goals conceded / match	0.00	1.50	1.00
Total goals / match	2.50	3.25	3.00
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	25.0%	33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Parma	Draw	Milan	How it works
Strength (Elo)	25.6%	23.7%	50.7%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	23.2%	30.3%	46.4%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.75–1.20 Model expected goals

30.7% Probability of over 2.5 goals

36.7% Both teams to score

0-1 Most likely score, at 17.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-117.1%

0-014.3%

1-112.8%

1-010.7%

0-210.2%

1-27.7%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Parma	Milan	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1458	1607	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-6	-38	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1533	1533	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	40.7%	52.0%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	38.7%	49.2%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1029	993	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	29.2%	28.1%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	73.7%	71.2%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved