Mariehamn

Mariehamn

VS Scheduled Saturday 10 Oct 202617:00

Finland 2026 Veikkausliiga · Matchday 4

Ilves

Head-to-head overview

31 meetings

MariehamnWins: 10
Draws22.6% of meetings: 7
IlvesWins: 14

Goals per match: 2.81
Over 2.5 goals: 48.4%
Both teams scored: 48.4%

Date	Season	Match
2026-08-09	2026	Ilves2–0Mariehamn
2026-04-18	2026	Mariehamn2–2Ilves
2025-08-31	2025	Ilves2–1Mariehamn
2025-04-27	2025	Mariehamn3–2Ilves
2024-08-11	2024	Ilves2–0Mariehamn
2024-04-28	2024	Mariehamn0–1Ilves
2023-09-27	2023	Ilves2–1Mariehamn
2023-07-15	2023	Ilves0–0Mariehamn
2023-04-05	2023	Mariehamn1–1Ilves
2022-10-02	2022	Ilves2–3Mariehamn
2022-08-21	2022	Mariehamn1–5Ilves
2022-05-15	2022	Ilves1–0Mariehamn
2021-09-22	2021	Ilves2–0Mariehamn
2021-08-29	2021	Mariehamn1–0Ilves
2020-09-23	2020	Mariehamn0–2Ilves
2020-07-01	2020	Ilves4–3Mariehamn
2019-10-06	2019	Mariehamn2–2Ilves
2019-08-11	2019	Mariehamn0–1Ilves
2019-05-20	2019	Ilves0–0Mariehamn
2018-09-02	2018	Mariehamn3–6Ilves
2018-08-29	2018	Ilves1–2Mariehamn
2018-05-13	2018	Mariehamn2–0Ilves
2017-10-28	2017	Mariehamn0–1Ilves
2017-07-07	2017	Mariehamn2–2Ilves
2017-05-06	2017	Ilves3–0Mariehamn
2016-10-23	2016	Mariehamn2–1Ilves
2016-07-10	2016	Mariehamn3–1Ilves
2016-04-29	2016	Ilves0–1Mariehamn
2015-09-13	2015	Ilves1–3Mariehamn
2015-07-05	2015	Mariehamn0–0Ilves
2015-05-17	2015	Mariehamn2–0Ilves

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-18	2026	SJK2–1Mariehamn
2026-09-12	2026	Mariehamn1–0TPS
2026-09-08	2026	Lahti2–1Mariehamn
2026-08-31	2026	Mariehamn2–0Jaro
2026-08-23	2026	KuPS2–4Mariehamn
2026-08-15	2026	Mariehamn2–0SJK
2026-08-09	2026	Ilves2–0Mariehamn
2026-08-01	2026	TPS3–0Mariehamn

Ilves

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	2026	TPS0–3Ilves
2026-09-12	2026	Ilves3–1Lahti
2026-09-08	2026	Ilves2–0Jaro
2026-08-31	2026	Ilves1–2HJK
2026-08-22	2026	Ilves0–1VPS
2026-08-17	2026	Gnistan3–2Ilves
2026-08-09	2026	Ilves2–0Mariehamn
2026-08-02	2026	AC Oulu1–0Ilves

Mariehamn Ilves

Wins

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

Both teams scored

38%

Clean sheets

38%

Home & away results

This season · 2026

Mariehamn

Home · Veikkausliiga

Home			Away		1st goal
11	Mariehamn	1–1	KuPS	1	35′ Away
11	Mariehamn	0–2	Inter Turku	2	45+1′ Away
11	Mariehamn	0–3	Gnistan	3	12′ Away
11	Mariehamn	0–4	HJK	4	31′ Away
11	Mariehamn	0–2	Lahti	5	21′ Away
11	Mariehamn	0–1	VPS	6	22′ Away
11	Mariehamn	2–2	Ilves	7	22′ Away
11	Mariehamn	1–1	AC Oulu	8	14′ Home
11	Mariehamn	1–1	TPS	9	39′ Home
11	Mariehamn	1–0	TPS	9	7′ Home
11	Mariehamn	2–0	SJK	10	18′ Home
11 · Mariehamn
11	Mariehamn	2–0	Jaro	12	62′ Home

Ilves

Away · Veikkausliiga

Home			Away		1st goal
1	KuPS	4–3	Ilves	7	26′ Home
2	Inter Turku	2–1	Ilves	7	22′ Away
3	Gnistan	3–2	Ilves	7	—
4	HJK	2–2	Ilves	7	21′ Away
5	Lahti	5–0	Ilves	7	4′ Home
6	VPS	3–2	Ilves	7	4′ Home
7 · Ilves
8	AC Oulu	1–0	Ilves	7	55′ Home
9	TPS	1–3	Ilves	7	34′ Away
9	TPS	0–3	Ilves	7	24′ Away
10	SJK	1–1	Ilves	7	1′ Away
11	Mariehamn	2–2	Ilves	7	22′ Away
12	Jaro	2–1	Ilves	7	27′ Home

Mariehamn Home Ilves Away

Wins

25%

17%

Over 1.5

83%

92%

Over 2.5

25%

83%

Over 3.5

17%

58%

Both teams scored

33%

75%

Clean sheets

25%

8%

Scores first

42%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Veikkausliiga · 2026 · Completed league matches only.

Mariehamn

25 matches

Goals & results	Home12 matches	Away13 matches	Overall25 matches
Points / match	1.08	0.31	0.68
Draws	33.3%	7.7%	20.0%
Goals scored / match	0.83	0.77	0.80
Goals conceded / match	1.42	2.31	1.88
Total goals / match	2.25	3.08	2.68
Failed to score	41.7%	53.8%	48.0%
Under 2.5 goals	75.0%	30.8%	52.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 5	80%
Scores first → wins	3 of 5	60%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 7	0%

Scoring order known: 12/12 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	1
16–30	1	4
31–45	3	3
46–60	2	1
61–75	2	4
76–90	0	4

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Ilves

25 matches

Goals & results	Home13 matches	Away12 matches	Overall25 matches
Points / match	1.92	0.75	1.36
Draws	7.7%	25.0%	16.0%
Goals scored / match	1.69	1.67	1.68
Goals conceded / match	0.92	2.17	1.52
Total goals / match	2.62	3.83	3.20
Failed to score	7.7%	16.7%	12.0%
Under 2.5 goals	53.8%	16.7%	36.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 11/12 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Mariehamn	Draw	Ilves	How it works
Strength (Elo)	25.2%	20.9%	53.9%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	9.2%	15.5%	71.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.75–2.48 Model expected goals

58.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

46.0% Both teams to score

0-2 Most likely score, at 12.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-212.2%

0-310.1%

0-19.9%

1-29.1%

1-37.5%

1-17.4%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Mariehamn	Ilves	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1403	1575	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	39	20	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1530	1505	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Mariehamn	0.40	0.45	0.90	1.05
Ilves	0.90	0.85	0.80	0.55

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Mariehamn	2%	12%	38%	25%	22%
Ilves	0%	15%	15%	18%	52%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.22 Mariehamn at home, 9 matches

0.88 Ilves away, 8 matches

22d Days of rest for Mariehamn

21d Days of rest for Ilves

— Manager of Mariehamn

— Manager of Ilves

0 Matches for Mariehamn in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Ilves in the last 14 days

32 Points for Mariehamn behind the leaders, and -15 above the relegation zone

15 Points for Ilves behind the leaders, and 2 above the relegation zone

2.92 League goals per match

25.1% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Mariehamn, the right bar represents Ilves.

On the ball

20 matches

4.4

corners

4.68

11.85

fouls

9.15

2.07

yellow cards

1.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Mariehamn	LWLWWWLLDL	1.30	1.20–1.40	1L
Ilves	WWWLLLWLWW	1.80	1.70–0.90	3W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Mariehamn	5	4	11	0	2
Ilves	8	7	5	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Mariehamn

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Ilves

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.