Chiba

Chiba

VS Scheduled Sunday 11 Oct 202606:00

Japan 26/27 J1 League · Matchday 9

V-Varen Nagasaki

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Shimizu S-Pulse2–1Chiba
2026-09-14	26/27	Verdy1–1Chiba
2026-09-13	26/27	Verdy1–1Chiba
2026-09-06	26/27	Chiba2–0Gamba Osaka
2026-09-02	26/27	Chiba1–2Okayama
2026-08-29	26/27	Kawasaki Frontale4–2Chiba
2026-08-21	26/27	FC Tokyo2–0Chiba
2026-08-15	26/27	Chiba0–4Machida

V-Varen Nagasaki

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki1–1Cerezo Osaka
2026-09-13	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki2–0Nagoya Grampus
2026-09-12	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki2–0Nagoya Grampus
2026-09-06	26/27	Vissel Kobe3–1V-Varen Nagasaki
2026-09-02	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki2–2Gamba Osaka
2026-08-29	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki0–3FC Tokyo
2026-08-21	26/27	Kashiwa Reysol4–2V-Varen Nagasaki
2026-08-15	26/27	Okayama1–0V-Varen Nagasaki

Chiba V-Varen Nagasaki

Wins

12%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

Both teams scored

62%

50%

Clean sheets

12%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Chiba

Home · J1 League

Home			Away		1st goal
19	Chiba		Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1
19	Chiba		FC Tokyo	2
19	Chiba		Vissel Kobe	3
19	Chiba	0–4	Machida	4	17′ Away
19	Chiba		Kashiwa Reysol	5
19	Chiba		Kawasaki Frontale	6
19	Chiba	1–2	Okayama	7	31′ Away
19	Chiba		Yokohama F. Marinos	8
19	Chiba		Kashima Antlers	9
19	Chiba		Shimizu S-Pulse	10
19	Chiba		Urawa Reds	11
19	Chiba		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
19	Chiba		Cerezo Osaka	13
19	Chiba		Mito	14
19	Chiba		Kyoto	15
19	Chiba	2–0	Gamba Osaka	16	1′ Home
19	Chiba		Nagoya Grampus	17
19	Chiba		Verdy	18
19 · Chiba
19	Chiba		Avispa Fukuoka	20

V-Varen Nagasaki

Away · J1 League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
2	FC Tokyo		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
3	Vissel Kobe	3–1	V-Varen Nagasaki	12	2′ Home
4	Machida		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
5	Kashiwa Reysol	4–2	V-Varen Nagasaki	12	—
6	Kawasaki Frontale		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
7	Okayama	1–0	V-Varen Nagasaki	12	54′ Home
8	Yokohama F. Marinos		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
9	Kashima Antlers		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
10	Shimizu S-Pulse		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
11	Urawa Reds		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
12 · V-Varen Nagasaki
13	Cerezo Osaka		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
14	Mito		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
15	Kyoto		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
16	Gamba Osaka		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
17	Nagoya Grampus		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
18	Verdy		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
19	Chiba		V-Varen Nagasaki	12
20	Avispa Fukuoka		V-Varen Nagasaki	12

Chiba Home V-Varen Nagasaki Away

Wins

33%

0%

Over 1.5

100%

67%

Over 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

33%

67%

Both teams scored

33%

67%

Clean sheets

33%

0%

Scores first

33%

0%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

J1 League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Chiba

9 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away6 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.00	0.33	0.56
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	22.2%
Goals scored / match	1.00	0.83	0.89
Goals conceded / match	2.00	2.17	2.11
Total goals / match	3.00	3.00	3.00
Failed to score	33.3%	33.3%	33.3%
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	50.0%	44.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	0
16–30	0	1
31–45	1	2
46–60	1	0
61–75	0	1
76–90	0	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

V-Varen Nagasaki

9 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away3 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.83	0.00	1.22
Draws	33.3%	0.0%	22.2%
Goals scored / match	1.50	1.00	1.33
Goals conceded / match	1.17	2.67	1.67
Total goals / match	2.67	3.67	3.00
Failed to score	16.7%	33.3%	22.2%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	33.3%	44.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 0	—
Scores first → wins	0 of 0	—
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Chiba	Draw	V-Varen Nagasaki	How it works
Strength (Elo)	36.5%	26.1%	37.4%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	17.2%	18.2%	60.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.20–2.43 Model expected goals

66.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

61.1% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 9.4%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-29.4%

0-27.8%

1-17.7%

1-37.6%

0-16.4%

0-36.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Chiba	V-Varen Nagasaki	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1447	1483	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-41	69	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1500	1519	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Chiba	0.62	0.25	1.00	1.25
V-Varen Nagasaki	0.50	0.75	0.62	1.25

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Chiba	0%	0%	44%	33%	22%
V-Varen Nagasaki	5%	25%	18%	25%	28%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.00 Chiba at home, 3 matches

0.50 V-Varen Nagasaki away, 8 matches

22d Days of rest for Chiba

22d Days of rest for V-Varen Nagasaki

— Manager of Chiba

— Manager of V-Varen Nagasaki

0 Matches for Chiba in the last 14 days

0 Matches for V-Varen Nagasaki in the last 14 days

15 Points for Chiba behind the leaders, and -1 above the relegation zone

9 Points for V-Varen Nagasaki behind the leaders, and 5 above the relegation zone

2.50 League goals per match

25.3% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Chiba, the right bar represents V-Varen Nagasaki.

On the ball

20 matches

2.71

corners

4.57

11.0

fouls

9.88

3.33

yellow cards

1.6

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Chiba	LDDWLLLLL	0.56	0.89–2.11	1L
V-Varen Nagasaki	DWWLDLLLWD	1.20	1.60–1.90	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Chiba	2	3	3	0	1
V-Varen Nagasaki	3	2	3	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Chiba

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

V-Varen Nagasaki

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.