V-Varen Nagasaki

V-Varen Nagasaki

VS Scheduled Saturday 29 May 202701:00

Japan 26/27 J1 League · Matchday 37

Machida

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki1–1Cerezo Osaka
2026-09-13	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki2–0Nagoya Grampus
2026-09-12	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki2–0Nagoya Grampus
2026-09-06	26/27	Vissel Kobe3–1V-Varen Nagasaki
2026-09-02	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki2–2Gamba Osaka
2026-08-29	26/27	V-Varen Nagasaki0–3FC Tokyo
2026-08-21	26/27	Kashiwa Reysol4–2V-Varen Nagasaki
2026-08-15	26/27	Okayama1–0V-Varen Nagasaki

Machida

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Machida2–4Kashiwa Reysol
2026-09-13	26/27	Machida1–1Yokohama F. Marinos
2026-09-12	26/27	Machida1–1Yokohama F. Marinos
2026-09-06	26/27	Nagoya Grampus1–3Machida
2026-09-02	26/27	Machida2–1Kawasaki Frontale
2026-08-29	26/27	Mito1–1Machida
2026-08-23	26/27	Machida3–1Urawa Reds
2026-08-15	26/27	Chiba0–4Machida

V-Varen Nagasaki Machida

Wins

25%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

62%

Both teams scored

50%

88%

Clean sheets

25%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

V-Varen Nagasaki

Home · J1 League

Home			Away		1st goal
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1
12	V-Varen Nagasaki	0–3	FC Tokyo	2	37′ Away
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Vissel Kobe	3
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Machida	4
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Kashiwa Reysol	5
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Kawasaki Frontale	6
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Okayama	7
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Yokohama F. Marinos	8
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Kashima Antlers	9
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Shimizu S-Pulse	10
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Urawa Reds	11
12 · V-Varen Nagasaki
12	V-Varen Nagasaki	1–1	Cerezo Osaka	13	34′ Home
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Mito	14
12	V-Varen Nagasaki	2–1	Kyoto	15	11′ Home
12	V-Varen Nagasaki	2–2	Gamba Osaka	16	79′ Home
12	V-Varen Nagasaki	2–0	Nagoya Grampus	17	36′ Home
12	V-Varen Nagasaki	2–0	Nagoya Grampus	17	—
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Verdy	18
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Chiba	19
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Avispa Fukuoka	20

Machida

Away · J1 League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima		Machida	4
2	FC Tokyo	1–5	Machida	4	5′ Home
3	Vissel Kobe		Machida	4
4 · Machida
5	Kashiwa Reysol		Machida	4
6	Kawasaki Frontale		Machida	4
7	Okayama		Machida	4
8	Yokohama F. Marinos		Machida	4
9	Kashima Antlers		Machida	4
10	Shimizu S-Pulse		Machida	4
11	Urawa Reds		Machida	4
12	V-Varen Nagasaki		Machida	4
13	Cerezo Osaka		Machida	4
14	Mito	1–1	Machida	4	27′ Home
15	Kyoto		Machida	4
16	Gamba Osaka		Machida	4
17	Nagoya Grampus	1–3	Machida	4	—
18	Verdy		Machida	4
19	Chiba	0–4	Machida	4	17′ Away
20	Avispa Fukuoka		Machida	4

V-Varen Nagasaki Home Machida Away

Wins

50%

75%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

50%

75%

Over 3.5

17%

75%

Both teams scored

50%

75%

Clean sheets

33%

25%

Scores first

83%

50%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

J1 League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

V-Varen Nagasaki

9 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away3 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.83	0.00	1.22
Draws	33.3%	0.0%	22.2%
Goals scored / match	1.50	1.00	1.33
Goals conceded / match	1.17	2.67	1.67
Total goals / match	2.67	3.67	3.00
Failed to score	16.7%	33.3%	22.2%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	33.3%	44.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	3 of 5	60%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Machida

9 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away4 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.60	2.50	2.00
Draws	40.0%	25.0%	33.3%
Goals scored / match	1.80	3.25	2.44
Goals conceded / match	1.60	0.75	1.22
Total goals / match	3.40	4.00	3.67
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	25.0%	33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 2	100%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	V-Varen Nagasaki	Draw	Machida	How it works
Strength (Elo)	29.6%	24.6%	45.7%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	13.5%	16.3%	65.0%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.09–2.62 Model expected goals

66.6% Probability of over 2.5 goals

58.2% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 9.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-29.1%

0-28.4%

1-38.0%

0-37.3%

1-17.0%

0-16.4%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	V-Varen Nagasaki	Machida	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1483	1590	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	69	15	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1519	1520	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
V-Varen Nagasaki	0.50	0.75	0.62	1.25
Machida	1.00	1.62	0.50	0.75

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
V-Varen Nagasaki	5%	25%	18%	25%	28%
Machida	8%	20%	18%	25%	30%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.33 V-Varen Nagasaki at home, 12 matches

1.30 Machida away, 10 matches

252d Days of rest for V-Varen Nagasaki

251d Days of rest for Machida

— Manager of V-Varen Nagasaki

— Manager of Machida

0 Matches for V-Varen Nagasaki in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Machida in the last 14 days

9 Points for V-Varen Nagasaki behind the leaders, and 5 above the relegation zone

2 Points for Machida behind the leaders, and 12 above the relegation zone

2.50 League goals per match

25.3% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents V-Varen Nagasaki, the right bar represents Machida.

On the ball

20 matches

4.57

corners

3.75

9.88

fouls

9.88

1.6

yellow cards

2.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
V-Varen Nagasaki	DWWLDLLLWD	1.20	1.60–1.90	1D
Machida	LDDWWDWWWL	1.80	2.20–1.20	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
V-Varen Nagasaki	3	2	3	0	1
Machida	4	3	1	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

V-Varen Nagasaki

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Machida

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.