Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock

VS Scheduled Saturday 13 Mar 202715:00

Scotland 26/27 Premiership · Matchday 30

Hearts

Head-to-head overview

26 meetings

KilmarnockWins: 11
Draws26.9% of meetings: 7
HeartsWins: 8

Goals per match: 2.08
Over 2.5 goals: 38.5%
Both teams scored: 46.2%

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Kilmarnock1–1Hearts
2026-03-14	25/26	Kilmarnock1–0Hearts
2025-12-03	25/26	Hearts1–1Kilmarnock
2025-10-18	25/26	Kilmarnock0–3Hearts
2025-05-18	24/25	Kilmarnock0–1Hearts
2025-01-25	24/25	Hearts3–2Kilmarnock
2024-12-15	24/25	Kilmarnock1–0Hearts
2024-10-30	24/25	Hearts1–2Kilmarnock
2024-04-27	23/24	Kilmarnock0–0Hearts
2024-03-30	23/24	Hearts1–1Kilmarnock
2023-12-02	23/24	Kilmarnock0–1Hearts
2023-08-13	23/24	Hearts0–0Kilmarnock
2023-04-01	22/23	Kilmarnock2–1Hearts
2022-12-17	22/23	Hearts3–1Kilmarnock
2022-10-09	22/23	Kilmarnock2–2Hearts
2020-02-05	19/20	Hearts2–3Kilmarnock
2019-11-23	19/20	Kilmarnock3–0Hearts
2019-10-05	19/20	Hearts0–1Kilmarnock
2019-05-04	18/19	Hearts0–1Kilmarnock
2019-02-01	18/19	Kilmarnock1–2Hearts
2018-11-10	18/19	Hearts0–1Kilmarnock
2018-08-25	18/19	Kilmarnock0–1Hearts
2018-05-13	17/18	Kilmarnock1–0Hearts
2018-02-27	17/18	Hearts1–1Kilmarnock
2017-11-05	17/18	Hearts1–2Kilmarnock
2017-08-12	17/18	Kilmarnock0–1Hearts

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Kilmarnock1–1Hearts
2026-09-15	26/27	Hibernian0–1Kilmarnock
2026-09-05	26/27	Aberdeen0–0Kilmarnock
2026-09-02	26/27	Kilmarnock0–1St Mirren
2026-08-29	26/27	Kilmarnock0–4Dundee United
2026-08-09	26/27	Kilmarnock1–5Celtic
2026-08-02	26/27	St Johnstone4–3Kilmarnock
2026-05-17	25/26	Livingston1–4Kilmarnock

Hearts

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Kilmarnock1–1Hearts
2026-09-15	26/27	Falkirk2–1Hearts
2026-09-06	26/27	Hearts2–1Dundee
2026-09-03	26/27	Hibernian1–3Hearts
2026-08-29	26/27	Hearts2–1St Johnstone
2026-08-09	26/27	Hearts4–0Dundee United
2026-08-01	26/27	Aberdeen2–1Hearts
2026-05-16	25/26	Celtic3–1Hearts

Kilmarnock Hearts

Wins

25%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

88%

Both teams scored

50%

88%

Clean sheets

25%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Kilmarnock

Home · Premiership

Home			Away		1st goal
12	Kilmarnock	1–5	Celtic	1	2′ Away
12	Kilmarnock		Rangers	2
12	Kilmarnock	1–1	Hearts	3	—
12	Kilmarnock		Dundee	4
12	Kilmarnock	0–1	St Mirren	5	4′ Away
12	Kilmarnock		St Johnstone	6
12	Kilmarnock		Aberdeen	7
12	Kilmarnock	0–4	Dundee United	8	12′ Away
12	Kilmarnock		Motherwell	9
12	Kilmarnock		Hibernian	10
12	Kilmarnock		Falkirk	11
12 · Kilmarnock

Hearts

Away · Premiership

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Celtic		Hearts	3
2	Rangers		Hearts	3
3 · Hearts
4	Dundee		Hearts	3
5	St Mirren		Hearts	3
6	St Johnstone		Hearts	3
7	Aberdeen	2–1	Hearts	3	35′ Away
8	Dundee United		Hearts	3
9	Motherwell		Hearts	3
10	Hibernian	1–3	Hearts	3	13′ Away
11	Falkirk	2–1	Hearts	3	8′ Home
12	Kilmarnock	1–1	Hearts	3	—

Kilmarnock Home Hearts Away

Wins

0%

25%

Over 1.5

75%

100%

Over 2.5

50%

75%

Over 3.5

50%

25%

Both teams scored

50%

100%

Clean sheets

0%

Scores first

25%

50%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Premiership · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Kilmarnock

7 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away3 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	0.25	1.33	0.71
Draws	25.0%	33.3%	28.6%
Goals scored / match	0.50	1.33	0.86
Goals conceded / match	2.75	1.33	2.14
Total goals / match	3.25	2.67	3.00
Failed to score	50.0%	33.3%	42.9%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	66.7%	57.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Hearts

7 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away4 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.00	1.86
Draws	0.0%	25.0%	14.3%
Goals scored / match	2.67	1.50	2.00
Goals conceded / match	0.67	1.50	1.14
Total goals / match	3.33	3.00	3.14
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	25.0%	14.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 2	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 2	50%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Kilmarnock	Draw	Hearts	How it works
Strength (Elo)	26.3%	20.2%	53.5%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	15.7%	18.0%	62.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.10–2.41 Model expected goals

64.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

58.3% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 9.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-29.6%

0-28.7%

1-17.9%

1-37.7%

0-17.2%

0-37.0%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hearts	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1446	1622	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	17	-42	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1493	1517	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	46.4%	60.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	46.2%	68.2%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1009	900	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	37.5%	36.4%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	63.4%	53.7%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Kilmarnock	0.80	0.80	0.85	0.90
Hearts	0.85	0.85	0.55	0.55

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Kilmarnock	5%	15%	20%	20%	40%
Hearts	2%	25%	15%	30%	28%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.55 Kilmarnock at home, 11 matches

0.90 Hearts away, 10 matches

175d Days of rest for Kilmarnock

175d Days of rest for Hearts

— Manager of Kilmarnock

— Manager of Hearts

0 Matches for Kilmarnock in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Hearts in the last 14 days

13 Points for Kilmarnock behind the leaders, and -3 above the relegation zone

5 Points for Hearts behind the leaders, and 5 above the relegation zone

2.83 League goals per match

23.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Kilmarnock, the right bar represents Hearts.

On the ball

20 matches

12.28

shots

15.22

4.44

shots on target

4.89

36.2%

accuracy

32.1%

4.6

corners

6.35

12.7

fouls

11.0

2.11

yellow cards

1.65

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Kilmarnock	DWDLLLLWWW	1.40	1.60–1.70	1D
Hearts	DLWWWWLLWD	1.70	1.90–1.20	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Kilmarnock	10	4	6	0	3
Hearts	7	8	5	3	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Kilmarnock

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Hearts

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

Zverev breaks American hearts to become US Open champion Sky Sports 09-13

Kerjota scores 96th-minute winner for Hearts against Dundee BBC Sport 09-07

Four wins in a row, but can it only get better for Hearts? BBC Sport 09-06

Scottish Premiership: Celtic’s Yang completes fightback to see off St Mirren The Guardian 09-06

Watch: Sportscene highlights as Hearts & St Johnstone win BBC Sport 09-06