Porto

Porto

VS Scheduled Sunday 13 Dec 202600:00

Portugal 26/27 Liga Portugal · Matchday 14

Estrela

Head-to-head overview

6 meetings

PortoWins: 5
Draws0.0% of meetings: 0
EstrelaWins: 1

Goals per match: 2.33
Over 2.5 goals: 33.3%
Both teams scored: 33.3%

Date	Season	Match
2026-04-26	25/26	Estrela1–2Porto
2025-12-15	25/26	Porto3–1Estrela
2025-04-26	24/25	Estrela2–0Porto
2024-12-16	24/25	Porto2–0Estrela
2024-02-17	23/24	Porto2–0Estrela
2023-09-15	23/24	Estrela0–1Porto

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Porto3–1Benfica
2026-09-13	26/27	Casa Pia1–4Porto
2026-09-12	26/27	Casa Pia1–4Porto
2026-09-04	26/27	Porto2–1Moreirense
2026-08-29	26/27	Academico Viseu0–3Porto
2026-08-23	26/27	Porto2–0Arouca
2026-08-15	26/27	Rio Ave0–2Porto
2026-08-09	26/27	Porto2–0Alverca

Estrela

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Estrela0–2Academico Viseu
2026-09-14	26/27	Rio Ave3–3Estrela
2026-09-10	26/27	Estrela2–1Sp Braga
2026-09-05	26/27	Estrela2–2Famalicao
2026-08-30	26/27	Nacional2–3Estrela
2026-08-15	26/27	Alverca2–2Estrela
2026-08-08	26/27	Estrela2–2Sp Lisbon
2026-05-16	25/26	Sp Braga2–2Estrela

Porto Estrela

Wins

100%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

88%

Both teams scored

50%

88%

Clean sheets

50%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Porto

Home · Liga Portugal

Home			Away		1st goal
1 · Porto
1	Porto	3–1	Benfica	2	31′ Home
1	Porto		Santa Clara	3
1	Porto		Sp Lisbon	4
1	Porto		Academico Viseu	5
1	Porto	2–0	Arouca	6	67′ Home
1	Porto		Sp Braga	7
1	Porto	2–0	Alverca	8	9′ Home
1	Porto		Estrela	9
1	Porto		Famalicao	10
1	Porto		Gil Vicente	11
1	Porto		Maritimo	12
1	Porto	2–1	Moreirense	13	20′ Away
1	Porto		Guimaraes	14
1	Porto		Nacional	15
1	Porto		Rio Ave	16
1	Porto		Casa Pia	17
1	Porto		Estoril	18

Estrela

Away · Liga Portugal

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Porto		Estrela	9
2	Benfica		Estrela	9
3	Santa Clara		Estrela	9
4	Sp Lisbon		Estrela	9
5	Academico Viseu		Estrela	9
6	Arouca		Estrela	9
7	Sp Braga		Estrela	9
8	Alverca	2–2	Estrela	9	51′ Away
9 · Estrela
10	Famalicao		Estrela	9
11	Gil Vicente		Estrela	9
12	Maritimo		Estrela	9
13	Moreirense		Estrela	9
14	Guimaraes		Estrela	9
15	Nacional	2–3	Estrela	9	3′ Home
16	Rio Ave	3–3	Estrela	9	21′ Away
17	Casa Pia		Estrela	9
18	Estoril		Estrela	9

Porto Home Estrela Away

Wins

100%

33%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

50%

100%

Over 3.5

25%

100%

Both teams scored

50%

100%

Clean sheets

50%

0%

Scores first

75%

67%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Liga Portugal · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Porto

8 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away4 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	3.00	3.00	3.00
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	2.25	3.25	2.75
Goals conceded / match	0.50	0.50	0.50
Total goals / match	2.75	3.75	3.25
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	25.0%	37.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 3	67%
Scores first → wins	3 of 3	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	0
16–30	0	1
31–45	3	0
46–60	3	1
61–75	1	0
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Estrela

7 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away3 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	1.25	1.67	1.43
Draws	50.0%	66.7%	57.1%
Goals scored / match	1.50	2.67	2.00
Goals conceded / match	1.75	2.33	2.00
Total goals / match	3.25	5.00	4.00
Failed to score	25.0%	0.0%	14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	0.0%	14.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 2	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 2	0%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	1	0
31–45	1	1
46–60	2	2
61–75	3	2
76–90	1	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Porto	Draw	Estrela	How it works
Strength (Elo)	80.8%	7.7%	11.5%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	70.2%	15.3%	9.8%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

2.56–0.83 Model expected goals

61.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals

49.2% Both teams to score

2-0 Most likely score, at 11.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

2-011.1%

3-09.5%

2-19.2%

1-08.7%

3-17.8%

1-17.2%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Porto	Estrela	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1750	1453	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-31	48	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1502	1536	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	62.7%	45.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	67.6%	47.7%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1095	979	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	36.2%	33.3%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	73.3%	64.6%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Porto	1.11	1.05	0.16	0.58
Estrela	0.50	0.85	0.70	0.95

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Porto	2%	22%	18%	30%	28%
Estrela	12%	10%	18%	15%	45%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.82 Porto at home, 11 matches

0.70 Estrela away, 10 matches

84d Days of rest for Porto

84d Days of rest for Estrela

— Manager of Porto

— Manager of Estrela

0 Matches for Porto in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Estrela in the last 14 days

0 Points for Porto behind the leaders, and 20 above the relegation zone

14 Points for Estrela behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

2.68 League goals per match

26.9% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Porto, the right bar represents Estrela.

On the ball

20 matches

15.35

shots

11.28

5.53

shots on target

4.0

36.0%

accuracy

35.5%

6.21

corners

3.75

13.89

fouls

12.7

1.89

yellow cards

2.45

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Porto	WWWWWWWWWL	2.70	2.40–0.70	9W
Estrela	LDWDWDDDDL	1.20	1.80–1.90	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Porto	12	6	1	0	2
Estrela	3	10	7	0	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Porto

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Estrela

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.