Estrela

Estrela

VS Scheduled Sunday 20 Dec 202600:00

Portugal 26/27 Liga Portugal · Matchday 15

Maritimo

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Estrela0–2Academico Viseu
2026-09-14	26/27	Rio Ave3–3Estrela
2026-09-10	26/27	Estrela2–1Sp Braga
2026-09-05	26/27	Estrela2–2Famalicao
2026-08-30	26/27	Nacional2–3Estrela
2026-08-15	26/27	Alverca2–2Estrela
2026-08-08	26/27	Estrela2–2Sp Lisbon
2026-05-16	25/26	Sp Braga2–2Estrela

Maritimo

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Gil Vicente1–1Maritimo
2026-09-14	26/27	Moreirense3–1Maritimo
2026-09-05	26/27	Maritimo0–3Benfica
2026-08-29	26/27	Arouca2–1Maritimo
2026-08-22	26/27	Maritimo2–2Academico Viseu
2026-08-16	26/27	Famalicao1–2Maritimo
2026-08-08	26/27	Maritimo1–0Casa Pia
2023-05-27	22/23	Estoril3–1Maritimo

Estrela Maritimo

Wins

25%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

75%

Both teams scored

88%

75%

Clean sheets

0%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Estrela

Home · Liga Portugal

Home			Away		1st goal
9	Estrela		Porto	1
9	Estrela		Benfica	2
9	Estrela		Santa Clara	3
9	Estrela	2–2	Sp Lisbon	4	—
9	Estrela	0–2	Academico Viseu	5	10′ Away
9	Estrela		Arouca	6
9	Estrela	2–1	Sp Braga	7	5′ Away
9	Estrela		Alverca	8
9 · Estrela
9	Estrela	2–2	Famalicao	10	2′ Away
9	Estrela		Gil Vicente	11
9	Estrela		Maritimo	12
9	Estrela		Moreirense	13
9	Estrela		Guimaraes	14
9	Estrela		Nacional	15
9	Estrela		Rio Ave	16
9	Estrela		Casa Pia	17
9	Estrela		Estoril	18

Maritimo

Away · Liga Portugal

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Porto		Maritimo	12
2	Benfica		Maritimo	12
3	Santa Clara		Maritimo	12
4	Sp Lisbon		Maritimo	12
5	Academico Viseu		Maritimo	12
6	Arouca	2–1	Maritimo	12	27′ Away
7	Sp Braga		Maritimo	12
8	Alverca		Maritimo	12
9	Estrela		Maritimo	12
10	Famalicao	1–2	Maritimo	12	8′ Home
11	Gil Vicente	1–1	Maritimo	12	7′ Home
12 · Maritimo
13	Moreirense	3–1	Maritimo	12	18′ Home
14	Guimaraes		Maritimo	12
15	Nacional		Maritimo	12
16	Rio Ave		Maritimo	12
17	Casa Pia		Maritimo	12
18	Estoril		Maritimo	12

Estrela Home Maritimo Away

Wins

25%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

75%

Over 3.5

50%

25%

Both teams scored

75%

100%

Clean sheets

0%

Scores first

N/A

25%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Liga Portugal · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Estrela

7 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away3 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	1.25	1.67	1.43
Draws	50.0%	66.7%	57.1%
Goals scored / match	1.50	2.67	2.00
Goals conceded / match	1.75	2.33	2.00
Total goals / match	3.25	5.00	4.00
Failed to score	25.0%	0.0%	14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	0.0%	14.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Maritimo

7 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away4 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	1.33	1.00	1.14
Draws	33.3%	25.0%	28.6%
Goals scored / match	1.00	1.25	1.14
Goals conceded / match	1.67	1.75	1.71
Total goals / match	2.67	3.00	2.86
Failed to score	33.3%	0.0%	14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	25.0%	28.6%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 3	33%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	2
16–30	2	2
31–45	0	1
46–60	0	1
61–75	0	0
76–90	3	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Estrela	Draw	Maritimo	How it works
Strength (Elo)	41.6%	24.1%	34.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	36.5%	22.5%	39.3%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.68–1.75 Model expected goals

64.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

65.8% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 9.5%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-19.5%

1-28.3%

2-18.0%

2-27.0%

0-15.7%

1-05.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Estrela	Maritimo	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1453	1462	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	48	56	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1536	1522	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	45.8%	52.7%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	47.7%	48.3%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	979	930	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	33.3%	28.9%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	64.6%	64.0%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Estrela	0.50	0.85	0.70	0.95
Maritimo	0.50	0.80	0.85	0.95

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Estrela	12%	10%	18%	15%	45%
Maritimo	2%	20%	18%	35%	25%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.00 Estrela at home, 10 matches

0.40 Maritimo away, 10 matches

91d Days of rest for Estrela

92d Days of rest for Maritimo

— Manager of Estrela

— Manager of Maritimo

0 Matches for Estrela in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Maritimo in the last 14 days

14 Points for Estrela behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

16 Points for Maritimo behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

2.68 League goals per match

26.9% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Estrela, the right bar represents Maritimo.

On the ball

20 matches

11.28

shots

14.28

4.0

shots on target

4.61

35.5%

accuracy

32.3%

3.75

corners

4.95

12.7

fouls

14.6

2.45

yellow cards

2.7

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Estrela	LDWDWDDDDL	1.20	1.80–1.90	1L
Maritimo	DLLLDWWLWL	1.10	1.10–1.70	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Estrela	3	10	7	0	2
Maritimo	4	4	12	1	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Estrela

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Maritimo

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.