Head-to-head overview
5 meetings- EstrelaWins
- 3
- Draws20.0% of meetings
- 1
- NacionalWins
- 1
- Goals per match
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 20.0%
- Both teams scored
- 40.0%
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 |
26/27
|
Nacional2–3Estrela |
| 2026-04-04 |
25/26
|
Nacional2–0Estrela |
| 2025-11-09 |
25/26
|
Estrela1–1Nacional |
| 2025-04-06 |
24/25
|
Nacional0–1Estrela |
| 2024-11-10 |
24/25
|
Estrela2–0Nacional |
Recent matches
Estrela
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 |
26/27
|
Estrela0–2Academico Viseu |
| 2026-09-14 |
26/27
|
Rio Ave3–3Estrela |
| 2026-09-10 |
26/27
|
Estrela2–1Sp Braga |
| 2026-09-05 |
26/27
|
Estrela2–2Famalicao |
| 2026-08-30 |
26/27
|
Nacional2–3Estrela |
| 2026-08-15 |
26/27
|
Alverca2–2Estrela |
| 2026-08-08 |
26/27
|
Estrela2–2Sp Lisbon |
| 2026-05-16 |
25/26
|
Sp Braga2–2Estrela |
Nacional
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 |
26/27
|
Nacional0–4Famalicao |
| 2026-09-13 |
26/27
|
Nacional1–3Alverca |
| 2026-09-12 |
26/27
|
Nacional1–3Alverca |
| 2026-09-05 |
26/27
|
Sp Lisbon2–0Nacional |
| 2026-08-30 |
26/27
|
Nacional2–3Estrela |
| 2026-08-23 |
26/27
|
Guimaraes1–0Nacional |
| 2026-08-16 |
26/27
|
Nacional2–0Estoril |
| 2026-08-10 |
26/27
|
Santa Clara2–2Nacional |
Estrela
Nacional
Wins
25%
12%
Over 2.5 goals
88%
62%
Both teams scored
88%
50%
Clean sheets
0%
12%
Home & away results
This season · 26/27
Estrela
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Estrela | Porto | 1 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Benfica | 2 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Santa Clara | 3 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | 2–2 | Sp Lisbon | 4 | — |
| 9 | Estrela | 0–2 | Academico Viseu | 5 | 10′ Away |
| 9 | Estrela | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | 2–1 | Sp Braga | 7 | 5′ Away |
| 9 | Estrela | Alverca | 8 | ||
| 9 · Estrela | |||||
| 9 | Estrela | 2–2 | Famalicao | 10 | 2′ Away |
| 9 | Estrela | Gil Vicente | 11 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Maritimo | 12 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Moreirense | 13 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Guimaraes | 14 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Rio Ave | 16 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Casa Pia | 17 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Estoril | 18 | ||
Nacional
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 2 | Benfica | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 3 | Santa Clara | 2–2 | Nacional | 15 | 19′ Home |
| 4 | Sp Lisbon | 2–0 | Nacional | 15 | 32′ Home |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 6 | Arouca | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 7 | Sp Braga | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 8 | Alverca | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 10 | Famalicao | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 11 | Gil Vicente | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 12 | Maritimo | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 13 | Moreirense | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 14 | Guimaraes | 1–0 | Nacional | 15 | 4′ Home |
| 15 · Nacional | |||||
| 16 | Rio Ave | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 17 | Casa Pia | Nacional | 15 | ||
| 18 | Estoril | Nacional | 15 | ||
Estrela Home
Nacional Away
Wins
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
Both teams scored
Clean sheets
Scores first
Season analysis
Home, away & overall
Liga Portugal · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.
Estrela
| Goals & results | Home4 matches | Away3 matches | Overall7 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 1.25 | 1.67 | 1.43 |
| Draws | 50.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% |
| Goals scored / match | 1.50 | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.75 | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Total goals / match | 3.25 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Failed to score | 25.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | —— | —— |
| Scores first → wins | —— | —— |
| Concedes first → wins | —— | —— |
Scoring order known: 3/4 home.Scoring order known: 6/7 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Home matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | — | — |
| 16–30 | — | — |
| 31–45 | — | — |
| 46–60 | — | — |
| 61–75 | — | — |
| 76–90 | — | — |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Nacional
| Goals & results | Home5 matches | Away3 matches | Overall8 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Draws | 0.0% | 33.3% | 12.5% |
| Goals scored / match | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2.60 | 1.67 | 2.25 |
| Total goals / match | 3.80 | 2.33 | 3.25 |
| Failed to score | 20.0% | 66.7% | 37.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.0% | 66.7% | 37.5% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 0 of 0— | —— |
| Scores first → wins | 0 of 0— | —— |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 3— | 0%— |
Scoring order known: 3/3 away.Scoring order known: 7/8 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Away matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 0 | 1 |
| 16–30 | 0 | 2 |
| 31–45 | 2 | 1 |
| 46–60 | 0 | 1 |
| 61–75 | 0 | 0 |
| 76–90 | 0 | 0 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Two perspectives
What each model says about this match
The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.
| Model | Estrela | Draw | Nacional | How it works |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 48.3% | 22.6% | 29.2% | Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage |
| Goals (Poisson) | 43.2% | 25.5% | 30.7% | Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average |
1.49–1.21
Model expected goals
50.1%
Probability of over 2.5 goals
54.0%
Both teams to score
1-1
Most likely score, at 12.1%
Most likely scores
1-112.1%
1-010.0%
2-19.0%
0-18.1%
2-07.5%
1-27.3%
Strength and dominance
Team strength and finishing efficiency
Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.
| Measure | Estrela | Nacional | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 1453 | 1408 | The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality. |
| Change over the last 10 | 48 | -37 | Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches |
| Opposition strength | 1536 | 1513 | Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule. |
| Shot share | 45.8% | 45.9% | Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents. |
| Shots on target share | 47.7% | 47.0% | The same measure, counting only shots on target |
| Finishing and saving index (PDO) | 979 | 950 | Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation. |
| Conversion | 33.3% | 22.5% | Shots on target converted into goals |
| Save percentage | 64.6% | 72.5% | Opponents' shots on target that are saved |
Goals
When teams score and how matches unfold
Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.
Goals by half
| Team | 1H scored | 2H scored | 1H conceded | 2H conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 0.50 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| Nacional | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.95 | 0.58 |
Total goals
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 12% | 10% | 18% | 15% | 45% |
| Nacional | 2% | 22% | 28% | 20% | 28% |
Context
Coming into the match
Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.
1.00
Estrela at home, 10 matches
0.56
Nacional away, 9 matches
140d
Days of rest for Estrela
141d
Days of rest for Nacional
—
Manager of Estrela
Bruno Abreu
Manager of Nacional,
since 31/08/26
0
Matches for Estrela in the last 14 days
0
Matches for Nacional in the last 14 days
14
Points for Estrela behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone
20
Points for Nacional behind the leaders, and 0 above the relegation zone
2.68
League goals per match
26.9%
League draw rate
Statistics
Side-by-side comparison
Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Estrela, the right bar represents Nacional.
On the ball
11.28
12.71
shots
4.0
4.18
shots on target
35.5%
32.9%
accuracy
3.75
4.44
corners
12.7
13.16
fouls
2.45
2.67
yellow cards
Recent form
| Team | Last 10 | PPG | goals | streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | LDWDWDDDDL | 1.20 | 1.80–1.90 | 1L |
| Nacional | LLLLLLWDWL | 0.70 | 1.00–2.00 | 6L |
At half-time
| Team | ahead | level | behind | comeback wins | lead lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 3 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| Nacional | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Squads
Injuries and suspensions
0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.
Estrela
No absences reported.
Nacional
No absences reported.
Newsroom
News about both teams
No recent news linked to these teams.