Sp Braga

Sp Braga

VS Scheduled Sunday 14 Mar 202700:00

Portugal 26/27 Liga Portugal · Matchday 26

Nacional

Head-to-head overview

8 meetings

Sp BragaWins: 7
Draws0.0% of meetings: 0
NacionalWins: 1

Goals per match: 2.88
Over 2.5 goals: 75.0%
Both teams scored: 50.0%

Date	Season	Match
2026-02-28	25/26	Nacional1–2Sp Braga
2025-09-28	25/26	Sp Braga0–1Nacional
2025-02-21	24/25	Sp Braga1–0Nacional
2024-09-20	24/25	Nacional0–3Sp Braga
2021-02-28	20/21	Nacional1–2Sp Braga
2020-10-17	20/21	Sp Braga2–1Nacional
2019-01-18	18/19	Nacional0–3Sp Braga
2018-08-12	18/19	Sp Braga4–2Nacional

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Santa Clara0–0Sp Braga
2026-09-14	26/27	Sp Braga1–0Estoril
2026-09-10	26/27	Estrela2–1Sp Braga
2026-09-05	26/27	Alverca1–2Sp Braga
2026-08-31	26/27	Sp Braga1–0Guimaraes
2026-08-09	26/27	Moreirense2–2Sp Braga
2026-05-16	25/26	Sp Braga2–2Estrela
2026-05-11	25/26	Benfica2–2Sp Braga

Nacional

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Nacional0–4Famalicao
2026-09-13	26/27	Nacional1–3Alverca
2026-09-12	26/27	Nacional1–3Alverca
2026-09-05	26/27	Sp Lisbon2–0Nacional
2026-08-30	26/27	Nacional2–3Estrela
2026-08-23	26/27	Guimaraes1–0Nacional
2026-08-16	26/27	Nacional2–0Estoril
2026-08-10	26/27	Santa Clara2–2Nacional

Sp Braga Nacional

Wins

38%

12%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

Both teams scored

62%

50%

Clean sheets

38%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Sp Braga

Home · Liga Portugal

Home			Away		1st goal
7	Sp Braga		Porto	1
7	Sp Braga		Benfica	2
7	Sp Braga		Santa Clara	3
7	Sp Braga		Sp Lisbon	4
7	Sp Braga		Academico Viseu	5
7	Sp Braga		Arouca	6
7 · Sp Braga
7	Sp Braga		Alverca	8
7	Sp Braga		Estrela	9
7	Sp Braga		Famalicao	10
7	Sp Braga		Gil Vicente	11
7	Sp Braga		Maritimo	12
7	Sp Braga		Moreirense	13
7	Sp Braga	1–0	Guimaraes	14	79′ Home
7	Sp Braga		Nacional	15
7	Sp Braga		Rio Ave	16
7	Sp Braga		Casa Pia	17
7	Sp Braga	1–0	Estoril	18	83′ Home

Nacional

Away · Liga Portugal

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Porto		Nacional	15
2	Benfica		Nacional	15
3	Santa Clara	2–2	Nacional	15	19′ Home
4	Sp Lisbon	2–0	Nacional	15	32′ Home
5	Academico Viseu		Nacional	15
6	Arouca		Nacional	15
7	Sp Braga		Nacional	15
8	Alverca		Nacional	15
9	Estrela		Nacional	15
10	Famalicao		Nacional	15
11	Gil Vicente		Nacional	15
12	Maritimo		Nacional	15
13	Moreirense		Nacional	15
14	Guimaraes	1–0	Nacional	15	4′ Home
15 · Nacional
16	Rio Ave		Nacional	15
17	Casa Pia		Nacional	15
18	Estoril		Nacional	15

Sp Braga Home Nacional Away

Wins

100%

0%

Over 1.5

0%

67%

Over 2.5

0%

33%

Over 3.5

0%

33%

Both teams scored

0%

33%

Clean sheets

100%

0%

Scores first

100%

0%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Liga Portugal · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Sp Braga

6 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away4 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	1.25	1.83
Draws	0.0%	50.0%	33.3%
Goals scored / match	1.00	1.25	1.17
Goals conceded / match	0.00	1.25	0.83
Total goals / match	1.00	2.50	2.00
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	16.7%
Under 2.5 goals	100.0%	25.0%	50.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 2	0%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 2/2 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	0
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	0
61–75	0	0
76–90	2	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Nacional

8 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away3 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	0.60	0.33	0.50
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	12.5%
Goals scored / match	1.20	0.67	1.00
Goals conceded / match	2.60	1.67	2.25
Total goals / match	3.80	2.33	3.25
Failed to score	20.0%	66.7%	37.5%
Under 2.5 goals	20.0%	66.7%	37.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 0	—
Scores first → wins	0 of 0	—
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	0	2
31–45	2	1
46–60	0	1
61–75	0	0
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Sp Braga	Draw	Nacional	How it works
Strength (Elo)	69.6%	13.4%	17.0%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	55.9%	24.4%	19.0%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.66–0.84 Model expected goals

44.9% Probability of over 2.5 goals

45.7% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 13.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-013.6%

1-111.5%

2-011.3%

2-19.5%

0-08.2%

0-16.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Sp Braga	Nacional	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1610	1408	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-57	-37	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1527	1513	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	49.1%	45.9%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	53.7%	47.0%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1032	950	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	40.3%	22.5%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	62.9%	72.5%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Sp Braga	0.70	0.80	0.40	0.75
Nacional	0.37	0.53	0.95	0.58

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Sp Braga	2%	25%	8%	30%	35%
Nacional	2%	22%	28%	20%	28%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.90 Sp Braga at home, 10 matches

0.56 Nacional away, 9 matches

175d Days of rest for Sp Braga

176d Days of rest for Nacional

— Manager of Sp Braga

Bruno Abreu Manager of Nacional, since 31/08/26

0 Matches for Sp Braga in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Nacional in the last 14 days

13 Points for Sp Braga behind the leaders, and 7 above the relegation zone

20 Points for Nacional behind the leaders, and 0 above the relegation zone

2.68 League goals per match

26.9% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Sp Braga, the right bar represents Nacional.

On the ball

20 matches

10.11

shots

12.71

4.0

shots on target

4.18

39.6%

accuracy

32.9%

4.7

corners

4.44

13.4

fouls

13.16

2.53

yellow cards

2.67

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Sp Braga	DWLWWDDDDL	1.40	1.30–1.20	1D
Nacional	LLLLLLWDWL	0.70	1.00–2.00	6L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Sp Braga	8	10	2	1	3
Nacional	2	8	9	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Sp Braga

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Nacional

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.