Head-to-head overview
4 meetings- NacionalWins
- 0
- Draws0.0% of meetings
- 0
- AroucaWins
- 4
- Goals per match
- 2.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75.0%
- Both teams scored
- 50.0%
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 |
25/26
|
Arouca3–0Nacional |
| 2025-09-20 |
25/26
|
Nacional1–2Arouca |
| 2025-02-01 |
24/25
|
Nacional1–2Arouca |
| 2024-08-25 |
24/25
|
Arouca1–0Nacional |
Recent matches
Nacional
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 |
26/27
|
Nacional0–4Famalicao |
| 2026-09-13 |
26/27
|
Nacional1–3Alverca |
| 2026-09-12 |
26/27
|
Nacional1–3Alverca |
| 2026-09-05 |
26/27
|
Sp Lisbon2–0Nacional |
| 2026-08-30 |
26/27
|
Nacional2–3Estrela |
| 2026-08-23 |
26/27
|
Guimaraes1–0Nacional |
| 2026-08-16 |
26/27
|
Nacional2–0Estoril |
| 2026-08-10 |
26/27
|
Santa Clara2–2Nacional |
Arouca
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 |
26/27
|
Sp Lisbon2–2Arouca |
| 2026-09-14 |
26/27
|
Arouca1–2Santa Clara |
| 2026-09-13 |
26/27
|
Arouca1–2Santa Clara |
| 2026-09-07 |
26/27
|
Estoril0–0Arouca |
| 2026-08-29 |
26/27
|
Arouca2–1Maritimo |
| 2026-08-23 |
26/27
|
Porto2–0Arouca |
| 2026-08-16 |
26/27
|
Arouca4–0Moreirense |
| 2026-08-08 |
26/27
|
Guimaraes0–1Arouca |
Nacional
Arouca
Wins
12%
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
62%
Both teams scored
50%
50%
Clean sheets
12%
38%
Home & away results
This season · 26/27
Nacional
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nacional | Porto | 1 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Benfica | 2 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Santa Clara | 3 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Sp Lisbon | 4 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Academico Viseu | 5 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Sp Braga | 7 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | 1–3 | Alverca | 8 | 34′ Away |
| 15 | Nacional | 1–3 | Alverca | 8 | — |
| 15 | Nacional | 2–3 | Estrela | 9 | 3′ Home |
| 15 | Nacional | 0–4 | Famalicao | 10 | 7′ Away |
| 15 | Nacional | Gil Vicente | 11 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Maritimo | 12 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Moreirense | 13 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Guimaraes | 14 | ||
| 15 · Nacional | |||||
| 15 | Nacional | Rio Ave | 16 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | Casa Pia | 17 | ||
| 15 | Nacional | 2–0 | Estoril | 18 | 68′ Home |
Arouca
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 2–0 | Arouca | 6 | 67′ Home |
| 2 | Benfica | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 3 | Santa Clara | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 4 | Sp Lisbon | 2–2 | Arouca | 6 | 3′ Home |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 6 · Arouca | |||||
| 7 | Sp Braga | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 8 | Alverca | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 9 | Estrela | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 10 | Famalicao | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 11 | Gil Vicente | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 12 | Maritimo | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 13 | Moreirense | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 14 | Guimaraes | 0–1 | Arouca | 6 | 53′ Away |
| 15 | Nacional | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 16 | Rio Ave | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 17 | Casa Pia | Arouca | 6 | ||
| 18 | Estoril | 0–0 | Arouca | 6 | – |
Nacional Home
Arouca Away
Wins
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
Both teams scored
Clean sheets
Scores first
Season analysis
Home, away & overall
Liga Portugal · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.
Nacional
| Goals & results | Home5 matches | Away3 matches | Overall8 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Draws | 0.0% | 33.3% | 12.5% |
| Goals scored / match | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2.60 | 1.67 | 2.25 |
| Total goals / match | 3.80 | 2.33 | 3.25 |
| Failed to score | 20.0% | 66.7% | 37.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.0% | 66.7% | 37.5% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | —— | —— |
| Scores first → wins | —— | —— |
| Concedes first → wins | —— | —— |
Scoring order known: 4/5 home.Scoring order known: 7/8 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Home matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | — | — |
| 16–30 | — | — |
| 31–45 | — | — |
| 46–60 | — | — |
| 61–75 | — | — |
| 76–90 | — | — |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Arouca
| Goals & results | Home4 matches | Away4 matches | Overall8 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Draws | 0.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Goals scored / match | 2.00 | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| Total goals / match | 3.25 | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| Failed to score | 0.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 75.0% | 37.5% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 0 of 1— | 0%— |
| Scores first → wins | 1 of 1— | 100%— |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 2— | 0%— |
Scoring order known: 4/4 away.Scoring order known: 7/8 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Away matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 0 | 1 |
| 16–30 | 0 | 1 |
| 31–45 | 0 | 0 |
| 46–60 | 1 | 0 |
| 61–75 | 0 | 1 |
| 76–90 | 2 | 1 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Two perspectives
What each model says about this match
The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.
| Model | Nacional | Draw | Arouca | How it works |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 31.5% | 23.4% | 45.1% | Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage |
| Goals (Poisson) | 13.4% | 20.7% | 64.4% | Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average |
0.74–1.96
Model expected goals
49.2%
Probability of over 2.5 goals
44.3%
Both teams to score
0-1
Most likely score, at 13.1%
Most likely scores
0-113.1%
0-212.8%
1-19.8%
1-29.6%
0-38.4%
0-06.7%
Strength and dominance
Team strength and finishing efficiency
Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.
| Measure | Nacional | Arouca | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 1408 | 1512 | The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality. |
| Change over the last 10 | -37 | 40 | Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches |
| Opposition strength | 1513 | 1547 | Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule. |
| Shot share | 45.9% | 44.2% | Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents. |
| Shots on target share | 47.0% | 46.7% | The same measure, counting only shots on target |
| Finishing and saving index (PDO) | 950 | 1160 | Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation. |
| Conversion | 22.5% | 40.6% | Shots on target converted into goals |
| Save percentage | 72.5% | 75.3% | Opponents' shots on target that are saved |
Goals
When teams score and how matches unfold
Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.
Goals by half
| Team | 1H scored | 2H scored | 1H conceded | 2H conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.95 | 0.58 |
| Arouca | 0.47 | 1.05 | 0.53 | 0.63 |
Total goals
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 2% | 22% | 28% | 20% | 28% |
| Arouca | 5% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 42% |
Context
Coming into the match
Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.
1.09
Nacional at home, 11 matches
1.10
Arouca away, 10 matches
183d
Days of rest for Nacional
183d
Days of rest for Arouca
Bruno Abreu
Manager of Nacional,
since 31/08/26
—
Manager of Arouca
0
Matches for Nacional in the last 14 days
0
Matches for Arouca in the last 14 days
20
Points for Nacional behind the leaders, and 0 above the relegation zone
13
Points for Arouca behind the leaders, and 7 above the relegation zone
2.68
League goals per match
26.9%
League draw rate
Statistics
Side-by-side comparison
Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Nacional, the right bar represents Arouca.
On the ball
12.71
11.06
shots
4.18
3.76
shots on target
32.9%
34.0%
accuracy
4.44
3.21
corners
13.16
12.63
fouls
2.67
2.95
yellow cards
Recent form
| Team | Last 10 | PPG | goals | streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | LLLLLLWDWL | 0.70 | 1.00–2.00 | 6L |
| Arouca | DLLDWLWWWW | 1.70 | 1.70–1.10 | 1D |
At half-time
| Team | ahead | level | behind | comeback wins | lead lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Arouca | 3 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Squads
Injuries and suspensions
0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.
Nacional
No absences reported.
Arouca
No absences reported.
Newsroom
News about both teams
No recent news linked to these teams.